US GDP Data Delivers Mixed Vibe: Growth Slows While Inflation Accelerates
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- April 25, 2024
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FOMC Rate Announcement: Statement and SEP on the Radar
- December 13, 2023
Markets and economists are pretty much unanimous in that the FOMC will be leaving the Fed Funds target range on hold at 5.25%-5.50% (22-year peak) for a third successive meeting today at 7:00 pm GMT. As you can see from Bloomberg’s WIRP function, futures markets are fully pricing in a no-change today. Expectations for Fed
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Headline US Inflation Inches Lower
- December 12, 2023
According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures, as expected, consumer price inflation slowed slightly to 3.1% in the twelve months to November, down from 3.2% in October. Over the same period, the core measure, which removes energy and food prices, also came in as expected at 4.0% and was also unchanged at
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Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?
- December 9, 2023
In addition to inflation data, jobs numbers and global PMIs, four major central banks—the Fed, the SNB, the BoE and the ECB—also claim the spotlight this week, all of which are expected to remain on pause. Without question, this week will be a busy one for traders. FOMC Rate Decision – Wednesday The headline event
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US Weekly Jobless Claims Unchanged; Continuing Claims Rise
- December 7, 2023
US unemployment claims for the week ending 2 December came in as expected at 220,000, marking an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 219,000. An important point to note is that US weekly unemployment claims data is typically very choppy around the holiday season. The 4-week rolling average came in at
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BoC Leaves Overnight Rate on Hold; USD/CAD Unmoved
- December 6, 2023
Overnight Rate Remains at 5.0% Amid signs of slowing economic activity, easing inflation and the unemployment rate ticking higher, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the Overnight Target Rate on hold at 5.0% today for a third consecutive meeting (22-year high), as widely anticipated. Interestingly, the post-rate statement erased October’s language regarding increasing inflationary risks,
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ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Disappoints; USD Unmoved
- December 6, 2023
According to the ADP National Employment Report, private payrolls increased by 103,000 in November. This is significantly south of the 130,000 market consensus and marginally down from the revised 106,000 print in October. Annual pay was also up by 5.6% year on year. Goods-producing jobs witnessed the largest decline at -14,000, with manufacturing displaying the
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Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?
- December 2, 2023
RBA and BoC on the Radar The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take the stage on Tuesday at 3:30 am GMT this week; the central bank is widely expected to hold the line at 4.35%. In fact, according to the ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, there is a 98% probability of a no-change
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Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?
- November 26, 2023
It will be busy for the US macroeconomic space this week and will be important for the US dollar. Most desks feel the Fed is done with policy tightening, and 2024 will likely see the beginning of rate cuts. Fed Fund futures markets forecast a 25bp cut could come as early as May’s policy meeting.
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Dollar South of 200-Day SMA Ahead of FOMC Minutes
- November 21, 2023
With the FOMC minutes fast approaching—the release is scheduled for 7:00 pm GMT today—the Dollar Index recently ventured south of its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 103.62, a move that many technical analysts may view as an early bearish trend signal. US equity markets are unchanged as of writing, and the buck is trading
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Week Ahead: Minutes from Major Central Banks in Focus
- November 18, 2023
Minutes from the FOMC, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) occupy the macro throne this week. FOMC Meeting Minutes The Fed minutes will be the highlight event of the week for many market participants. The latest policy meeting saw the Fed leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%
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Week Ahead: Inflation Numbers in the Spotlight
- November 11, 2023
Following a subdued (somewhat monotonous) week, the economic calendar will give us more to get our teeth into this week. US and UK CPI Inflation Along with several tier-1 data releases, the focus this week consists of inflation data from the US and the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. In the US, you will
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Light Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead
- November 4, 2023
Stepping into the first full week of November, the economic calendar is a little more on the quieter side this week. RBA to Increase the Official Cash Rate? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the highlight event on Tuesday at 3:30 am GMT. Amid stronger-than-expected CPI inflation and rising house prices, the ASX 30-Day
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