• Huge Week for the Markets!

    Huge Week for the Markets!

    • March 16, 2024

    At the centre of things this week are rate announcements from major central banks, including updates from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). We also welcome inflation numbers from Canada and the UK,

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  • Monthly UK GDP Elbows into Positive Territory

    Monthly UK GDP Elbows into Positive Territory

    • March 13, 2024

    The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK economy rebounded by 0.2% in January (in line with market forecasts), bolstered by robust growth in retail, wholesale and construction. This followed a month-over-month fall of 0.1% in December 2023 and two consecutive quarters of contraction in the second half of

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  • Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI; The Last Mile Will be Bumpy

    Hotter-Than-Expected US CPI; The Last Mile Will be Bumpy

    • March 12, 2024

    According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the year-over-year change in US consumer prices accelerated for a second straight month in February. Elevated Inflation Nominal headline inflation rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis for February, which fell in line with economists’ estimates and a touch higher than January’s 0.3% reading. Year-over-year

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  • US CPI and UK Wage Growth Set to Take the Stage This Week

    US CPI and UK Wage Growth Set to Take the Stage This Week

    • March 9, 2024

    Where We Were Last Week Fed Chair Jerome Powell was in the limelight last week after his two-day testimony before Congress but failed to shed much light on the timing of rate cuts. The Fed chief, however, did reiterate the Fed’s intention to ‘begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year’ and noted

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  • ECB Rates Unchanged; Downside Revisions in Growth and Inflation

    ECB Rates Unchanged; Downside Revisions in Growth and Inflation

    • March 7, 2024

    Following the Bank of Canada (BoC), the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it would hold all three key benchmark rates unchanged today for a fourth consecutive meeting, as widely expected. Downward Revisions in Growth and Inflation The updated macroeconomic Staff Projections observed a more optimistic picture for inflation in the form of downward revisions, and,

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  • BoC Rate Decision: Dovish Policy Shift?

    BoC Rate Decision: Dovish Policy Shift?

    • March 6, 2024

    Today will see the release of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision at 2:45 pm GMT. BoC to Hold the Line The BoC is widely expected to keep its Overnight Rate on hold at 5.0% for a fifth consecutive meeting—a 22-year peak. As per the OIS curve, there’s only a 6% chance that we

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  • Week Ahead: Powell and Lagarde Are Back in the Spotlight

    Week Ahead: Powell and Lagarde Are Back in the Spotlight

    • March 2, 2024

    Where We Were Last Week One of the highlight events last week was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The central bank also trimmed its OCR projections, unearthing a dovish shift which sent the NZD strongly lower. Major

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  • US GDP Growth Revised Slightly Lower

    US GDP Growth Revised Slightly Lower

    • February 28, 2024

    In terms of growth, the US economy is a notable outlier, still clearly echoing resilience. This is vastly different from the UK (technical recession) and the euro area (stagnating). According to the second estimate (or preliminary estimate), the US economy increased at an annualised rate of 3.2% in Q4 2023, a level consistent with economic

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  • RBNZ Maintains Official Cash Rate; AUD/NZD Cross Bid

    RBNZ Maintains Official Cash Rate; AUD/NZD Cross Bid

    • February 28, 2024

    Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) claimed the spotlight. The RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting, as widely expected by both economists at Bloomberg and markets (approximately a 25% chance of a rate hike priced in according to the OIS curve). However, as

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  • Week Ahead: What Are Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are Markets Watching This Week?

    • February 24, 2024

    Following a thin economic docket last week, the final week of February will see a pick-up in data, particularly out of the US. All in all, it will be a busy week for the markets. US Data in the Spotlight Stateside, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index (released at 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to have improved

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  • Week Ahead: RBA/Fed Minutes and Global PMIs in the Crosshairs

    Week Ahead: RBA/Fed Minutes and Global PMIs in the Crosshairs

    • February 17, 2024

    It is safe to say it has been an energetic start to the year, underscoring meaningful shifts in the economic landscape and rate expectations. Last week delivered a busy slate of tier-1 risk events; this week’s economic calendar, however, offers a lighter docket. Monday is poised to be a snooze. Void of tier-1 numbers and

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  • UK Retail Sales Data: Another Miss Could Weigh on the Pound

    UK Retail Sales Data: Another Miss Could Weigh on the Pound

    • February 15, 2024

    It has been quite the week for the UK. Tuesday welcomed UK wage data, which fell less than expected and illustrated sticky inflation. Headline wages (including bonuses) dipped to 5.8% (expected: 5.6%; previous: 6.7%) in the three months to December 2023, and pay that excludes bonuses also fell to 6.2% (expected: 6.0%; previous: 6.7%). Wednesday

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