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UK CPI Inflation Increased by 2.3% in October
- November 20, 2024
A report released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that all key inflation measures exceeded expectations in October. As a result, the British pound (GBP) appreciated against all G10 currencies, with the strongest gains seen against the Japanese yen (JPY). Additionally, FTSE 100 futures experienced a moderate decline following the report,
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Canadian CPI Inflation Accelerates in October; Boc Still Likely to Cut Rates
- November 19, 2024
Policymakers ‘may’ think twice about reducing the overnight rate by another 50 basis points (bps) next month following inflation accelerating to the upside. I emphasise the word ‘may’ here. According to the October CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index) released by Statistics Canada, headline YY (Year on Year) CPI inflation increased to 2.0%. This marked
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Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?
- November 17, 2024
USD to Remain Bid? US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s modestly hawkish commentary last week – ‘the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates’ – coupled with other Fed officials echoing a similar vibe as well as sticky inflation, prompted a dovish rate repricing.
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Bitcoin Continues to Outperform and Explore Unchartered Territory
- November 12, 2024
Why the sudden surge in demand for Bitcoin and many other major Digital Currencies? Trump Trade In addition to institutional demand, the US Federal Reserve’s rate reductions (and forecasts of further policy easing), I am largely putting the latest rally down to Donald Trump’s election win. Trump’s pro-business stance and promises of tax cuts and
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UK Unemployment Jumps to 4.3%
- November 12, 2024
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released a report today revealing that unemployment in the UK is estimated to have risen to 4.3% in the three months to September, with nearly 1.5 million people out of work. With Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget expected to increase taxes by £40 billion and understandable apprehension around spiralling employment
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UK Jobs Numbers; Dovish Surprise?
- November 11, 2024
7:00 am GMT tomorrow welcomes UK employment data for September. Expectations heading into the event show economists forecast regular pay (excludes bonuses) to have fallen to 4.7% in the three months to September (y/y) from August’s reading of 4.9% (maximum and minimum estimate range between 4.8% and 4.6%), while pay that includes bonuses is expected
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Fed Reduces Target Rate by 25 Basis Points
- November 7, 2024
In a unanimous decision, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced the fund target rate by 25 basis points (bps) today and was widely priced in by investors. The decision brought the target rate to 4.50-4.75% and followed the 50bp reduction at September’s meeting. Rate Statement The rate statement maintained its message regarding economic activity continuing
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Bank of England Reduces Bank Rate by 25 Basis Points
- November 7, 2024
In an 8-1 vote, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. This marks the second cut this year and was widely expected by markets and economists. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann (an external member), the sole dissenter, opted to keep the
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Trump Trade Unwinding
- November 5, 2024
The US election result between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is only hours away. Harris Takes Modest Lead While it has all been about the ‘Trump Trade’ over the past few weeks, the tide seems to have shifted in favour of Harris, and the US dollar (USD) is responding accordingly. The
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Week Ahead: Bank of Canada Takes Centre Stage as Investors Price In a 50 Basis Point Cut
- October 20, 2024
The Week That Was: Earnings season kicked off on a high note, with most results exceeding estimates and lifting US equity indices to fresh record highs. This, coupled with China’s fresh round of stimulus measures failing to inspire investors, tier-1 data from G10 economies, and the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing another 25 basis point
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Back-to-Back Rate Cuts for the ECB
- October 17, 2024
As widely expected by markets and economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced all three key benchmark rates by 25 basis points (bps) today amid easing inflationary pressures. This places the deposit facility rate, the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending facility rate at 3.25%, 3.40% and 3.65%, respectively. It also marks the central
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UK Inflation Softens Across Key Metrics; GBP Falls
- October 16, 2024
According to a report released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, UK inflationary pressures in September eased across all key indicators. This, of course, will be welcomed news for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares to deliver her first Annual Budget at the end of the month. CPI
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