• RBNZ Maintains Official Cash Rate; AUD/NZD Cross Bid

    RBNZ Maintains Official Cash Rate; AUD/NZD Cross Bid

    • February 28, 2024

    Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) claimed the spotlight. The RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting, as widely expected by both economists at Bloomberg and markets (approximately a 25% chance of a rate hike priced in according to the OIS curve). However, as

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  • Week Ahead: What Are Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are Markets Watching This Week?

    • February 24, 2024

    Following a thin economic docket last week, the final week of February will see a pick-up in data, particularly out of the US. All in all, it will be a busy week for the markets. US Data in the Spotlight Stateside, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index (released at 3:00 pm GMT) is expected to have improved

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  • Week Ahead: RBA/Fed Minutes and Global PMIs in the Crosshairs

    Week Ahead: RBA/Fed Minutes and Global PMIs in the Crosshairs

    • February 17, 2024

    It is safe to say it has been an energetic start to the year, underscoring meaningful shifts in the economic landscape and rate expectations. Last week delivered a busy slate of tier-1 risk events; this week’s economic calendar, however, offers a lighter docket. Monday is poised to be a snooze. Void of tier-1 numbers and

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  • UK Retail Sales Data: Another Miss Could Weigh on the Pound

    UK Retail Sales Data: Another Miss Could Weigh on the Pound

    • February 15, 2024

    It has been quite the week for the UK. Tuesday welcomed UK wage data, which fell less than expected and illustrated sticky inflation. Headline wages (including bonuses) dipped to 5.8% (expected: 5.6%; previous: 6.7%) in the three months to December 2023, and pay that excludes bonuses also fell to 6.2% (expected: 6.0%; previous: 6.7%). Wednesday

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  • UK Economy Enters Technical Recession; Sterling Lower

    UK Economy Enters Technical Recession; Sterling Lower

    • February 15, 2024

    It was a miss across the board for UK GDP growth, tipping the UK economy into technical recession territory. Two consecutive quarters of real GDP contracting is commonly viewed as a technical recession. According to the preliminary estimate for Q4 (2023) growth, real GDP contracted more than expected at -0.3% as per the Office for

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  • UK CPI Undershoots Estimates and Matches Prior Data

    UK CPI Undershoots Estimates and Matches Prior Data

    • February 14, 2024

    According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK consumer prices steadied in January, with both headline and core inflation numbers matching prior months and undershooting economists’ estimates. In the twelve months to January, headline inflation rose 4.0% (expected: 4.2%; previous: 4.0%), and the core measure—excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco—came in at 5.1% (expected:

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  • Hotter-Than-Anticipated US CPI for January

    Hotter-Than-Anticipated US CPI for January

    • February 13, 2024

    Today’s US inflation print came in hotter than expected. The headline release slowed to 3.1% in the twelve months to January, down from 3.4% in December though above economists’ estimates of 2.9% (median forecast). Year-over-year core inflation matched December’s release at 3.9%, 0.2 percentage points north of the market’s median estimate of 3.7%. Month-over-month data

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  • Heavyweight UK Data Ahead of European Cash Open Tomorrow

    Heavyweight UK Data Ahead of European Cash Open Tomorrow

    • February 12, 2024

    Ahead of the European cash open, we welcome potentially heavyweight UK data at 7:00 am GMT. As I am sure you’re already aware, I must point out that traders will be viewing the unemployment metric with some trepidation due to problems with data collection. Market consensus, however, forecast a slight uptick in the unemployment rate

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  • Amid a Hawkish Repricing, January CPI Inflation is in the Spotlight This Week

    Amid a Hawkish Repricing, January CPI Inflation is in the Spotlight This Week

    • February 10, 2024

    This week promises a livelier economic calendar – certainly more so than last week! Asset drivers for the US will be Tuesday’s CPI inflation print, retail sales on Thursday and Friday’s consumer sentiment survey derived from the University of Michigan (UoM). Across the pond in the UK, the focus shifts to earnings and jobs numbers

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  • RBA Holds Rates Unchanged; Projection Change

    RBA Holds Rates Unchanged; Projection Change

    • February 6, 2024

    Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the airwaves with its latest rate decision. In its first policy-setting meeting this year, the Board opted to leave the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, a 12-year pinnacle. Downward Revisions on Growth and Inflation On one side of the fence, the accompanying Rate Statement retained a hawkish

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  • Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    • February 3, 2024

    The first full week of February will deliver a quieter tone compared to last week. Monday’s ISM Services PMI for January is the main macro driver in focus for the US, while in Asia Pac, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision takes to the front on Tuesday. Forget about March Last week’s stage

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  • US Non-Farm Payrolls

    US Non-Farm Payrolls

    • February 2, 2024

    Today’s US Employment Situation Report will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. According to Bloomberg, the median estimate for today’s non-farm payrolls for January is 185,000, with the estimate range between 300,000 and 120,000. A softer-than-expected release—around the 130k-140k neighbourhood that is nearer the estimate range low—may attract USD shorts. Weaker job growth could also

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