Fed Holds Target Rate Unchanged; Revises Growth and Inflation Forecasts
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- March 19, 2025
As anticipated by economists and investors, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds target rate at 4.25% – 4.50%. Overall, the rate statement and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) aligned with expectations. Rate Statement For ease of reference, I have highlighted new additions to the statement in green and indicated sentence removals
READ MOREThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet this Tuesday and is widely anticipated to deliver its first rate cut in four years amid easing inflationary pressures. I am ‘reasonably’ convinced that the central bank will reduce the Cash Rate this week, a belief based on inflation and growth data that delivered prints south of
READ MOREFollowing the RBNZ cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) in November 2024, economists and investors expect another bumper 50 bp rate reduction on Wednesday this week – with an outside chance of a more minor 25 bp reduction. A 50 bp (25 bp) adjustment would bring the OCR to 3.75%
READ MOREThe Week That Was: RBNZ Slashed Rates by 50bps The week kicked off with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reducing its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.75%, a move that was widely expected and marked the central bank’s second consecutive rate cut this year. The RBNZ signalled that
READ MOREECB MEETINGS OF 2020 SHOULD REALLY BE CALLED ECB ‘STRATEGY REVIEWS’.
Newly minted Chair Christine Lagarde clearly wanted to give herself ‘room’ having ordered a review to consider all aspects of its mandates, targets specifically inflation, performance, operational tools, communication and policy setting, plus others. It clearly leaves the ECB in a holding pattern, but that holding pattern means its highly unconventional policies setting won’t change until the Strategy Review is complete.
Charts: Trading View (Italics: Previous Analysis) US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe): The US dollar—measured by the US Dollar Index—extended recovery gains last week, adding 0.4 per cent and touching a high of 105.79, values not visited since 2002. Consequently, the decision point from 105.61-104.87 came under attack and had its upper boundary probed as a
READ MOREECB MEETINGS OF 2020 SHOULD REALLY BE CALLED ECB ‘STRATEGY REVIEWS’.
Newly minted Chair Christine Lagarde clearly wanted to give herself ‘room’ having ordered a review to consider all aspects of its mandates, targets specifically inflation, performance, operational tools, communication and policy setting, plus others. It clearly leaves the ECB in a holding pattern, but that holding pattern means its highly unconventional policies setting won’t change until the Strategy Review is complete.
Charts: Trading View (Italics: Previous Analysis Due to Limited Price Change) US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe): Against a basket of six foreign currencies, the US dollar plunged 1.8 percent last week and engulfed the prior week’s gains. Following a peak just shy of Quasimodo resistance from 97.45, price slipped under trendline support at the tail
READ MORECharts: Trading View (Italics: Previous Analysis Due to Limited Price Change) US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe): According to the US dollar index—a geometric weighted average of the buck’s value against six international currencies—the US dollar flexed its financial muscle last week and climbed 1.7 percent. Clocking a high of 97.44, its highest peak since July
READ MORECharts: Trading View (Italics: Previous Analysis Due to Limited Price Change) US Dollar Index (Daily Timeframe): Against a basket of six international currencies, the US dollar index settled the week in positive territory, up 0.5 percent. Following a bullish outside reversal from support at 94.65 (complemented by a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 94.68) earlier in
READ MOREUS Dollar Index: With US elections sparking a risk-on rally (major US equity benchmarks finished strongly higher across the board), safe-haven demand for the US dollar, as measured by the US dollar index (DXY), declined considerably last week. Down 1.8 percent, the DXY drowned previous gains and crossed paths with daily support at 92.26. Although
READ MOREUS Dollar Index: The US dollar (DXY) outperformed last week, seizing dominant trendline resistance (102.99) and adding more than 1.2 percent. Going forward, resistance at 94.65 and 50% retracement level at 94.77 is on the frontline, which, as you can see, is in the company of an RSI trendline resistance (prior support). Fracturing the aforesaid
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