It will be busy for the US macroeconomic space this week and will be important for the US dollar. Most desks feel the Fed is done with policy tightening, and 2024 will likely see the beginning of rate cuts. Fed Fund futures markets forecast a 25bp cut could come as early as May’s policy meeting.

Economic Calendar This Week:

Tuesday

A heavy US-centred calendar will kick things off on Tuesday at 3:00 pm GMT with consumer confidence data for November from the Conference Board and several Fed officials hitting the wires that day. The median estimate heading into the event is for consumer confidence to drop to 101.0, down from October’s 102.6 reading; the estimate range falls between 104.0 and 100.0; therefore, anything released near the extremes of this range will likely trigger market volatility in the USD and related markets.

Wednesday

Wednesday begins bright and early with Aussie CPI inflation data at 12:30 am GMT (expected: 5.5%; previous: 5.6%), closely followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate decision at 1:00 am GMT. Markets and economists widely expect the central bank to stand pat on rates (markets are fully pricing in a no-change for the event); the Official Cash Rate has been on hold at 5.5% since May’s policy meeting.

US growth data (GDP [preliminary second estimate]) for Q3 will also grace the economic calendar on Wednesday at 1:30 pm GMT. The estimate range currently falls between 5.2% and 4.6%, with a median estimate suggesting economic activity increased at an annual rate of 5.0% for Q3. You will recall that the advance GDP (released in late October) expanded faster than anticipated in Q3 to 4.9%, bolstered by robust consumer spending (up 4.0% in Q2).

Thursday

CPI inflation data out of the eurozone for November will be key to monitor on Thursday, with flash estimates released at 10:00 am GMT and German and Spanish preliminary estimates also out of the gate on Wednesday. Economists estimate continued improvement in eurozone inflation; the (current) median estimate for the headline YoY figure suggests inflation will slightly cool to 2.8%, down from 2.9% (estimate range is between 2.8% and 2.3%). The core reading for the same period is expected to cool to 4.0%, down from 4.2%. A softer-than-expected inflation print this week could see the euro weighed.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT, serving as one of the major events of the week, we’ll receive the core PCE price index for October and the personal income and spending measures, with traders and investors looking to this report to help reaffirm the disinflationary trend in the US. On a month-over-month basis, the headline PCE price index is anticipated to be softer at 0.1%, down from 0.4% in September, with the headline year-over-year measure also expected to slow to just north of 3.0% in October, down from 3.4%. For the core PCE price index measure, the one most will be watching, month-over-month data for October is expected to marginally slow to 0.2%, down from 0.3%, with the year-over-year core PCE data forecasted to cool to 3.5% from 3.7% in September.

Friday

Traders/investors will closely watch Friday’s US ISM PMI for November at 3:00 pm GMT for any sign of a rebound, following October’s print slipping to 46.7 and registering an eleventh week in contractionary territory (< 50.00). As of writing, the median estimate suggests an improvement in November to 47.7, but as you can see, it is expected to remain under 50.00.

G10 FX (5-Day Change):

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