• UK Economy Enters Technical Recession; Sterling Lower

    UK Economy Enters Technical Recession; Sterling Lower

    • February 15, 2024

    It was a miss across the board for UK GDP growth, tipping the UK economy into technical recession territory. Two consecutive quarters of real GDP contracting is commonly viewed as a technical recession. According to the preliminary estimate for Q4 (2023) growth, real GDP contracted more than expected at -0.3% as per the Office for

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  • UK CPI Undershoots Estimates and Matches Prior Data

    UK CPI Undershoots Estimates and Matches Prior Data

    • February 14, 2024

    According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK consumer prices steadied in January, with both headline and core inflation numbers matching prior months and undershooting economists’ estimates. In the twelve months to January, headline inflation rose 4.0% (expected: 4.2%; previous: 4.0%), and the core measure—excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco—came in at 5.1% (expected:

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  • Hotter-Than-Anticipated US CPI for January

    Hotter-Than-Anticipated US CPI for January

    • February 13, 2024

    Today’s US inflation print came in hotter than expected. The headline release slowed to 3.1% in the twelve months to January, down from 3.4% in December though above economists’ estimates of 2.9% (median forecast). Year-over-year core inflation matched December’s release at 3.9%, 0.2 percentage points north of the market’s median estimate of 3.7%. Month-over-month data

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  • Heavyweight UK Data Ahead of European Cash Open Tomorrow

    Heavyweight UK Data Ahead of European Cash Open Tomorrow

    • February 12, 2024

    Ahead of the European cash open, we welcome potentially heavyweight UK data at 7:00 am GMT. As I am sure you’re already aware, I must point out that traders will be viewing the unemployment metric with some trepidation due to problems with data collection. Market consensus, however, forecast a slight uptick in the unemployment rate

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  • Amid a Hawkish Repricing, January CPI Inflation is in the Spotlight This Week

    Amid a Hawkish Repricing, January CPI Inflation is in the Spotlight This Week

    • February 10, 2024

    This week promises a livelier economic calendar – certainly more so than last week! Asset drivers for the US will be Tuesday’s CPI inflation print, retail sales on Thursday and Friday’s consumer sentiment survey derived from the University of Michigan (UoM). Across the pond in the UK, the focus shifts to earnings and jobs numbers

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  • RBA Holds Rates Unchanged; Projection Change

    RBA Holds Rates Unchanged; Projection Change

    • February 6, 2024

    Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made the airwaves with its latest rate decision. In its first policy-setting meeting this year, the Board opted to leave the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, a 12-year pinnacle. Downward Revisions on Growth and Inflation On one side of the fence, the accompanying Rate Statement retained a hawkish

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  • Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    • February 3, 2024

    The first full week of February will deliver a quieter tone compared to last week. Monday’s ISM Services PMI for January is the main macro driver in focus for the US, while in Asia Pac, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision takes to the front on Tuesday. Forget about March Last week’s stage

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  • US Non-Farm Payrolls

    US Non-Farm Payrolls

    • February 2, 2024

    Today’s US Employment Situation Report will be released at 1:30 pm GMT. According to Bloomberg, the median estimate for today’s non-farm payrolls for January is 185,000, with the estimate range between 300,000 and 120,000. A softer-than-expected release—around the 130k-140k neighbourhood that is nearer the estimate range low—may attract USD shorts. Weaker job growth could also

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  • Happy Fed Day!

    Happy Fed Day!

    • January 31, 2024

    Markets and economists forecast that the FOMC will leave the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting. Therefore, the policy meeting, scheduled for today at 7:00 pm GMT, will focus on the accompanying Rate Statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and whether we see a pushback against March rate pricing. 133bps

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  • US Job Openings Surprise to the Upside

    US Job Openings Surprise to the Upside

    • January 30, 2024

    Today’s JOLTS number is the first of a number of significant releases for the US labour market this week. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings in the US increased to a little more than 9 million in December 2023. This moderately surpassed the upper estimate range limit of 9.00

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  • Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    • January 27, 2024

    And there we have it. This week will see January in the books, and what a week it promises to be. Not only do the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) claim the central bank spotlight—both of which are anticipated to hold the line—plenty of macro market movers will grace the economic calendar throughout

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  • US PCE Price Index Ahead: What Can We Expect?  

    US PCE Price Index Ahead: What Can We Expect?  

    • January 26, 2024

    Today’s economic calendar—the end to the final full week of January—concludes with a look at the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation: December’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. PCE Estimates Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, economists’ estimates suggest a slight uptick in the headline measure to 0.2% from November’s -0.1%, while year-on-year data is

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