Week Ahead: What Are the Financial Markets Watching This Week
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- October 6, 2024
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UK Retail Sales Slump More Than Expected
- July 19, 2024
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), contrary to economists forecasting a -0.4% drop, retail sales in the UK fell by more than expected in June, shedding -1.2%, following a +2.9% jump in May. Markets were largely muted following the release; sterling (GBP) is down -0.1% versus the US dollar (USD) as of writing.
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ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged; September’s Meeting ‘Wide Open’
- July 18, 2024
Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) left all three benchmark interest rates unchanged and held back from providing any updated guidance in today’s meeting. This follows June’s reduction across all three ECB benchmark rates by 25 basis points. As a result of today’s meeting, the main refinancing rate, the marginal lending facility rate, and the
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UK Unemployment Steady at 4.4%; Wage Growth Remains Elevated
- July 18, 2024
As expected, UK unemployment remained at 4.4% from March to May 2024, its highest rate since September 2021 and points to a softening jobs market. Following the release, Sterling (GBP) was modestly lower against major peers. In another sign of a softening jobs market, UK vacancies fell to 889,000 in May, down from 905,000 in
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UK Inflation Holds at 2.0%; Services Inflation Remains Stubborn
- July 17, 2024
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation data released this morning revealed that, on a year-on-year basis, we were unchanged across headline, core and services numbers. This sent sterling (GBP) northbound versus G10 peers, with GBP/USD recently clocking highs just shy of $1.3000. UK Inflation at +2.0% UK CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation
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US Retail Sales Flat in June; EUR/USD Testing Resistance
- July 16, 2024
US retail sales stalled in June, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau. Defying economists’ estimates of a -0.3% fall (Reuters poll), the flat print follows May’s upwardly revised reading of +0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales increased by +0.4% in June, bettering May’s upwardly revised reading of +0.1% and market expectations of a
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Canadian CPI Inflation Slows; Markets Pricing in BoE Rate Cut Next Week
- July 16, 2024
According to Statistics Canada today, headline year-on-year inflation for June rose +2.7%, easing from +2.9% in May and was marginally south of economists’ expectations of +2.8%, The report was also softer than the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) inflation forecast for the first half of this year. Dovish Rate Repricing The immediate aftermath of the latest
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US CPI Miss Triggers USD Downside
- July 11, 2024
According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), US inflationary pressures eased more than expected in the month of June, reinforcing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year. Markets also welcomed weekly unemployment claims, which fell by nearly 20,000 to 222,000 for the week ending 6 July, with continuing jobless claims pretty much stable
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GBP Bid Following UK Economic Growth
- July 11, 2024
Earlier this morning, the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers hit the wires and were broadly stronger across all key metrics. This was bolstered by expansion in the services sector, which consequently underpinned a bid in GBP versus G10 peers. Sterling continues to largely outperform, as of writing, particularly against the Norwegian krone (NOK),
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Fed Chair Powell: Balancing Act Between Inflation and Job Market
- July 10, 2024
In Tuesday’s written testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hailed the disinflation progress made over the past two years toward reaching the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target. However, while the Fed Chief subtly elbowed the Fed closer to reducing its policy rate, he reiterated that the Committee requires ‘greater confidence’
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Dovish Narrative from RBNZ Triggers NZD Selloff
- July 10, 2024
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% for an eighth consecutive meeting, which was widely expected by markets and economists. What did surprise at today’s meeting, however, was the central bank’s shift to a more dovish stance, indicating that a rate reduction may be closer
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BoE’s Haskel: ‘Bank Rate Should be Left on Hold’
- July 9, 2024
In the Bank of England’s (BoE) first appearance since the blackout period ahead of the UK general election, Jonathan Haskel, an external Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, delivered a speech at King’s College London. BoE’s Haskel: ‘Tight and Impaired’ Labour Market In his recent speech, Haskel emphasised a higher-for-longer stance in what will be his
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Week Ahead: What Are Markets Watching This Week?
- July 6, 2024
Despite a holiday-shortened week in the US, most major US equity indices refreshed record highs, and US Treasury yields fell, along with the US dollar, which shed nearly -1.0% against major peers. Cooling US Economic Conditions Increasing Odds of a September Cut Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting last week stressed that Fed officials remain
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