• What is Happening to the Price of Gold (XAU/USD)?

    What is Happening to the Price of Gold (XAU/USD)?

    • January 17, 2024

    Amidst a bid in US yields and the dollar, alongside hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who emphasised support for a more methodical and careful approach to loosening policy, we have seen the price of spot gold (XAU/USD) trade on the back foot in recent days and consequently pull the yellow metal into

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  • UK CPI Inflation Surprises to the Upside; GBP/USD Bid

    UK CPI Inflation Surprises to the Upside; GBP/USD Bid

    • January 17, 2024

    This morning’s inflation data out of the UK saw headline year-on-year inflation rise to 4.0% for December, surpassing 3.9% in November and exceeding the 3.8% market consensus. This marks the first increase since early 2023. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), between November and December, alcohol and tobacco jumped from 10.2% to 12.9%

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  • UK Jobs Data in the Rear-View Mirror; Canadian CPI Eyed

    UK Jobs Data in the Rear-View Mirror; Canadian CPI Eyed

    • January 16, 2024

    Ahead of the European cash open this morning, markets welcomed the latest jobs figures out of the UK. Unemployment remained steady at 4.2% in the three months to November, as expected, while the claimant count change fell to 11,700 for December, down from 16,000 in November and comfortably south of the median estimate at 18,100.

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  • US CPI Data: Increased Headline and Slowing Core Inflation?

    US CPI Data: Increased Headline and Slowing Core Inflation?

    • January 11, 2024

    Slowing Core Inflation Today’s US CPI inflation release is the highlight event of the week for many traders and investors. Bloomberg’s median estimate for headline inflation suggests we can expect a slight uptick to 3.2% in the twelve months to December, up from 3.1% in November. The estimate range falls between 3.6% and 3.1%, with

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  • Aussie Inflation Data Up Ahead

    Aussie Inflation Data Up Ahead

    • January 9, 2024

    Although the quarterly inflation print remains the go-to measure for Aussie consumer inflation, the monthly CPI indicator was developed in October 2022 to give policymakers inflation data at a higher frequency. According to the monthly CPI indicator, inflation slowed to 4.9% in the twelve months to October 2023, easing from 5.6% in September 2023. Tomorrow’s

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  • Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    • January 6, 2024

    Stocks and bonds kicked off the year underwater, with the S&P 500 snapping a nine-week winning streak and pencilling in what many technical analysts would refer to as a weekly Evening Star candlestick formation: a bearish cue. The Dollar Index ended the week higher, its first weekly gain in three weeks, with spot gold (XAU/USD)

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  • NFP Data on the Radar

    NFP Data on the Radar

    • January 5, 2024

    As we step into 2024, this is where we begin to see the last of 2023 data filter through, including the widely followed US Employment Situation Report for December, released at 1:30 pm GMT today. According to Bloomberg’s median estimate, economists expect that the US economy generated approximately 175,000 new jobs in the month of

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  • BoJ Preview: Central Bank Anticipated to Stand Pat; Statement Language Eyed

    BoJ Preview: Central Bank Anticipated to Stand Pat; Statement Language Eyed

    • December 18, 2023

    It is widely expected that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its ultra-loose Policy Rate at -0.1% tomorrow. The timing for the event is not set, but it is generally expected to hit the wires at about 3 am GMT. Expectations? Expectations of a policy shift out of negative territory increased exponentially in recent

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  • Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    Week Ahead: What Are the Markets Watching This Week?

    • December 16, 2023

    It’s here. The FINAL full week of the trading year! While liquidity will begin to thin as we close in on the festive holiday, a number of tier-1 data are in the headlights this week. Tuesday Tuesday entertains the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy Rate

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  • BoE Stands Pat; Sterling Rallies and Rate Pricing Turns Hawkish

    BoE Stands Pat; Sterling Rallies and Rate Pricing Turns Hawkish

    • December 14, 2023

    In a 6-3 vote, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained the current Base Rate at 15-year highs of 5.25%. According to the minutes, MPC members Megan Greene, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann voted to increase the rate by 25bps, unchanged from November’s meeting. As a reminder, there will be no presser for the BoE today.

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  • FOMC Rate Announcement: Statement and SEP on the Radar

    FOMC Rate Announcement: Statement and SEP on the Radar

    • December 13, 2023

    Markets and economists are pretty much unanimous in that the FOMC will be leaving the Fed Funds target range on hold at 5.25%-5.50% (22-year peak) for a third successive meeting today at 7:00 pm GMT. As you can see from Bloomberg’s WIRP function, futures markets are fully pricing in a no-change today. Expectations for Fed

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  • Headline US Inflation Inches Lower

    Headline US Inflation Inches Lower

    • December 12, 2023

    According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures, as expected, consumer price inflation slowed slightly to 3.1% in the twelve months to November, down from 3.2% in October. Over the same period, the core measure, which removes energy and food prices, also came in as expected at 4.0% and was also unchanged at

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