Charts: Trading View

(Italics: Previous Analysis)

EUR/USD:

$0.98 has clearly delivered challenging trading conditions on the short-term H1 timeframe in previous sessions. Wednesday witnessed price dip a toe south of the figure, though, as you can see, swiftly proved to be a ‘bear trap’. Thursday consequently reclaimed the big figure mid-way through London and subsequently (awkwardly) retested the number as support heading into US trading hours. As evident from the chart, price remains above $0.98 at the time of writing, movement throwing light on two main areas of structure: H1 prime support and resistance at $0.9769-0.9798 and $0.9884-0.9938, respectively.

The higher timeframe technical landscape remains unchanged. Points of note are as follows:

• Trend has remained to the downside since 2021 (see weekly timeframe). This is also evident from the daily timeframe trading comfortably under its 200-day simple moving average ($1.0545).
• Weekly support remains in play from $0.9606, yet daily trendline resistance, drawn from the high $1.1495, is seen overhead around $0.9920ish.

Technical Expectation:

H1 prime support ($0.9769-0.9798) and prime resistance ($0.9884-0.9938) are likely on the radar for many technical traders, particularly $0.9769-0.9798 right now. A bounce from here, however, is unlikely to pull the price much beyond H1 prime resistance, given the downtrend.

AUD/USD:

Against the US dollar, the Australian dollar scaled higher on Thursday, action including a break/retest of $0.63 on the H1 timeframe that led to a test of H1 Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.6352. To the upside, two 100% projection ratios call for attention beyond $0.6352 at around $0.6374ish (AB=CD patterns), followed by $0.64. Below $0.63, on the other hand, a H1 decision point is seen at $0.6248-0.6271, with a break shifting attention to $0.62.

For those who missed the previous analysis, here’s a reminder of where I left the charts on the higher timeframes:

The bullish showing, as evident from the weekly timeframe, unfolded a touch north of long-term demand from $0.5975-0.6166, a base that houses a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio at $0.6024 (an ‘alternate’ AB=CD pattern). Weekly resistance is not expected to appear until $0.6673, though daily resistance can be seen from $0.6401. This, therefore, will be a test for current bulls, in a market trending southbound since February 2021.

Technical Expectation:

The overall trend is lower. Therefore, longer-term traders/investors may look to sell any rally seen into daily resistance from $0.6401 (we have yet to reach weekly demand at $0.5975-0.6166). This shines the short-term spotlight on $0.64 and neighbouring 100% projection levels at $0.6374 on the H1 timeframe. However, traders are also urged to pencil in the possibility of a pop higher to H1 prime resistance at $0.6446-0.6440, suitably placed beyond intraday tops around $0.6429.

Breaking through $0.63, nonetheless, opens the door to breakout selling towards at least the H1 decision point at $0.6248-0.6271.

USD/JPY:

Refreshing 24-year tops beyond the widely watched ¥150 region, USD/JPY continues to outperform, up nearly 1.0% on the week and 3.6% on the month.  As we can see from the weekly timeframe, price action is seen threatening to overthrow a 100% projection at ¥149.66 (an AB=CD bearish pattern) and charge toward weekly Quasimodo resistance priced at ¥151.90. Trend, of course, favours further buying, consistently higher since 2021, with corrections few and far between.

From the H1 timeframe, price is now kissing the underside of ¥150, following an earlier drop to a low of ¥149.55 just ahead of an ‘accelerating’ trendline support, extended from the low ¥146.42. With price poised to climb, ¥150.50 is seen as a reasonable short-term upside objective.

Technical Expectation:

It remains a straightforward currency pair to analyse. The trend is overwhelmingly to the upside and we’re seeing price draw through weekly resistance (100% projection at ¥149.66). A H1 close above ¥150, therefore, could be enough to motivate breakout buying, targeting at least ¥150.50 on the H1, followed by weekly Quasimodo resistance at ¥151.90.

GBP/USD:

It was quite a day for the pound, finishing the session off best levels against the US dollar, but not before running stops north of the $1.13 on the H1 scale. Unless you were under a rock all day yesterday, you’ll likely already be aware that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation after a mere 44 days in office. This initially triggered a GBP/USD bid, which influenced the $1.13 whipsaw briefly touched on above. As the US dollar recovered off session lows, this pressured the currency pair lower and has, at the time of writing, landed price on the doorstep of $1.12. Below here, I see limited support until $1.11.

Across the page on the higher timeframes, we continue to reject the lower side of the weekly timeframe’s decision point at $1.1751-1.1413 and resistance from $1.1410. Note this is seen in a market entrenched in a dominant downtrend since early 2021. Nearby, we can also see a daily trendline resistance, extended from the high $1.3639, and the daily chart’s relative strength index (RSI) resistance zone at 60.00-50.00 welcoming the indicator’s value.

Technical Expectation:

The weekly timeframe’s technical resistances, the 19-month downtrend and the daily RSI resistance suggests any upside efforts could be short-lived. As a result, a decisive H1 close fashioned beneath $1.12 might be enough to greet short-term breakout selling in the direction of at least $1.11.

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