EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

August, as you can see, toppled supply from 1.1857/1.1352 and extended space north of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038), arguing additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Trading in September, however, concluded lower by 1.8 percent, snapping a four-month winning streak and establishing an outside reversal candle pattern. This refocuses attention on the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support).

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

The currency pair’s technical position on the daily chart reveals channel resistance (prior support – 1.1695) made an entrance on Monday. A decisive rejection swings supports at 1.1553 and 1.1495 in focus, located just under 1.1612 (September 25 low) and also positioned just north of demand at 1.1369/1.1450.

The RSI oscillator, after spinning higher ahead of oversold levels at the beginning of last week, dethroned the 50.00 region and trendline resistance yesterday.

H4 timeframe:

Amidst a decisive USD decline in response to increased demand for risk assets, EUR/USD found fresh legs out of demand at 1.1682/1.1716 Monday and ran through resistance at 1.1753, along with trendline resistance (1.2011).

Channel resistance (1.1769) now calls for attention, with a break unmasking supply at 1.1872/1.1838, a rally-base-drop formation.

H1 timeframe:

US trading Monday, as you can see, crossed paths with a 127.2 Fib ext. level at 1.1795 and pulled lower. Demand is seen nearby at 1.1756/1.1769, whilst above 1.18 a supply (prior demand) at 1.1818/1.1828 is visible (note this area is significant as it held highs [1.1870]).

In terms of the RSI indicator, we recently visited overbought space after taking out trendline resistance. Also note there is another trendline support present.

Structures of Interest:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Longer term, despite taking out the upper edge of monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, September’s depreciation echoes the possibility of further declines to retest the recently penetrated monthly trendline. Daily price, however, reveals active channel resistance. Though do be aware the daily RSI trendline resistance gave way.

Shorter term, the break of H4 trendline resistance, with room seen to advance, places the spotlight on possible moves above 1.18 on the H1. Alternatively, a dip to H1 demand at 1.1756/1.1769 could be on offer, which may entice dip-buying strategies.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of September (lower by 2.9 percent) snapped a five-month winning streak and tested the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). From here, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, traders might want to take into account the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Arranged by way of four successive daily bullish candles out of demand at 0.6964/0.7042, supply at 0.7131/0.7192 (prior demand) made an entrance late last week. Despite modestly testing stops above its border on Thursday, price remains within its walls.

The technical landscape above the aforesaid supply reveals scope to test peaks around 0.7345 and supply coming in from 0.7453/0.7384.

The trend, according to the daily timeframe, has emphasised a positive tone since bottoming in late March. Traders may also recognise the RSI recently recovered from oversold turf and is within a stone’s throw from retesting 53.00 S/R.

H4 timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Supply from 0.7234/0.7199 (intersects with a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7214 and a 50.00% level at 0.7209), located just above daily supply at 0.7131/0.7192, greeted price action Thursday, with Friday rolling lower and shedding light on demand at 0.7100/0.7117, together with a nearby support at 0.7080.

The lack of selling interest Monday will have market participants consider the possibility of further buying to trendline resistance (prior support – 0.7076) and supply coming in from 0.7234/0.7286.

H1 timeframe:

Monday offered a muted intraday tone, twisting between the 0.72 level and 0.7150 support (the 100-period simple moving average is also seen close by).

Trendline resistance (prior support – 0.7005) is visible above 0.72, followed by supply at 0.7262/0.7247, while burrowing through 0.7150 throws light on 0.71.

With reference to the RSI oscillator, two trendline resistances positioned around 62.00 contained upside momentum on Monday (yellow).

Structures of Interest:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Longer term, monthly price is seen testing 0.7029/0.6664 as demand, which, structurally, prompts a bullish theme, enough to perhaps force daily price beyond supply from 0.7131/0.7192. Though do bear in mind that movement to the upside trades against the primary downtrend.

A short-term dip to 0.7150 support on the H1 could unwind today, perhaps rebounding price to 0.72. However, the round number could prove difficult resistance owing to it also marking the lower edge of H4 supply (0.7199). Overall, though, the higher timeframes suggest we’ll eventually push through the aforesaid H4 supply.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

September, as you can see, tested the lower boundary of the aforesaid pattern and ended the month modestly off worst levels.

Areas of interest outside of the triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Recovery gains off monthly support at 104.62 (the lower boundary of the monthly descending triangle) invites the prospect of additional bullish sentiment towards trendline resistance (111.71) and nearby supply at 107.58/106.85 (joined by the 200-day simple moving average at 107.49).

The RSI recently bottomed ahead of oversold levels and is on course to retest resistance around 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 105.82/105.66 (stores a 61.8% Fib level within its upper boundary at 105.81) re-entered the fold on

Monday, as USD/JPY extended recovery gains out of demand at 104.92/105.09 on the back of upbeat risk flow.

Additional areas of resistance to be aware of on the H4 chart are 105.98 and supply from 106.38/106.23.

H1 timeframe:

Conquering the 100-period simple moving average on Monday, in addition to 105.50 resistance and a local trendline resistance (105.79) has thrown light on resistance at 105.86 and supply at 106.05/105.91 (includes the 106 level).

With respect to the RSI indicator, the line put in a mild top ahead of overbought levels.

Structures of Interest:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Monthly support at 104.62 (lower base of the monthly descending triangle) holding price higher in September, along with the daily chart exhibiting room to approach trendline resistance and supply coming in from 107.58/106.85, signals buyers still have a reasonably strong hand in this fight.

H4 supply at 105.82/105.66 appears to be in a vulnerable position, due to the higher timeframes suggesting a move north. This indicates H1 could dip and retest local trendline support (prior resistance – 105.79), providing a platform for possible bullish themes to approach at least H1 resistance at 105.86.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance taken from 2.1161 unopposed, September sunk 3.4 percent by way of a bearish outside reversal candle, on track to perhaps retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191). Interestingly, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.3021/1.2844 continues to entertain price movement on the daily timeframe, following the prior week’s rebound from demand at 1.2645/1.2773 (and 200-day simple moving average at 1.2714). Buyers appear to have the advantage here, however, extending Friday’s gains on Monday. This is likely to shift interest towards resistance at 1.3201.

The RSI indicator recently formed a double-bottom ahead of oversold space, and is now seen crossing paths with resistance at 55.00.

H4 timeframe:

After rebounding from the upper edge of the falling wedge pattern between 1.2929/1.2828 last week, Monday gathered traction and highlighted supply at 1.3055/1.3018. A break of this area unearths the possibility of supply at 1.3116/1.3160 (prior demand) making a show.

H1 timeframe:

Rebounding from 1.29 heading into early Europe on Monday triggered a rally to the upside, eclipsing local highs and shining light on the widely watched 1.30 level. An interesting resistance also resides just above 1.30 at 1.3023.

In addition to the above, mild bearish divergence is seen out of the RSI.

Structures of Interest:

Daily buyers remain STRONG within supply at 1.3021/1.2844, though the monthly timeframe reveals space to extend September’s losses until testing trendline support (prior resistance).

H1 is seen closing in on 1.30, along with H4 nearing supply at 1.3055/1.3018 (holds the H1 resistance at 1.3023 within). Intraday, this suggests a whipsaw above 1.30 could materialise. A whipsaw above the round number, movement that takes a snap at H4 supply and chalks up a H1 close back under 1.30, could spark sellers.

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