EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

August, as you can see, toppled supply from 1.1857/1.1352 and extended space north of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038), arguing additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Trading in September, however, concluded lower by 1.8 percent, snapping a four-month winning streak and refocusing attention on the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support).

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

The currency pair’s technical position on the daily chart remains tipped for more outperformance until channel resistance (prior support – 1.1695).

Support at 1.1553 remains an obvious floor on this timeframe, located ahead of demand at 1.1369/1.1450.

The RSI oscillator, after spinning just north of oversold levels at the beginning of the week, remains on track to grapple with the 50.00 region and trendline resistance.

H4 timeframe:

1.1753 resistance, sheltered just under a 38.2% Fib level at 1.1764, recently made an entrance, though sellers continue to exhibit a non-committal tone.

Demand at 1.1682/1.1716 offers a target for any attempt to the downside, whereas seeking higher ground above 1.1764 will see price welcome trendline resistance (1.2011).

H1 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

With the RSI oscillator failing to confirm highs at 1.1769 set Thursday, upside momentum has noticeably begun to calm around 1.1750 resistance. Interestingly, 1.1750 aligns closely with H4 resistance at 1.1753, while 1.17 support (and the 100-period simple moving average) seen below is housed within H4 demand at 1.1682/1.1716.

Above 1.1750, supply is visible at 1.1798/1.1776, covered closely by the 1.18 level, whereas a dip under 1.17 today is likely to hone in on 1.1650 support.

Structures of Interest:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Despite testing above monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, September’s depreciation echoes the possibility of further declines to retest the recently penetrated monthly trendline.

Daily price reveals space to reach higher until channel resistance, a line that merges closely with daily RSI trendline resistance and the 1.18 level applied to the H1. In addition to this, the daily channel resistance is located just above current H4 trendline resistance.

The above, as put forward in Thursday’s analysis, suggests a pop to the 1.18 region could occur before sellers make a show.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of September (lower by 2.9 percent) snapped a five-month winning streak and tested the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). From this region buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, traders might want to take into account the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Arranged by way of four successive daily bullish candles out of demand at 0.6964/0.7042, mapped just ahead of support at 0.6931, price is now seen testing stops above supply at 0.7131/0.7192 (prior demand).

The trend, according to the daily timeframe, has emphasised a positive tone since bottoming in late March. Traders may also recognise the RSI recently recovered from oversold turf and is within a stone’s throw from retesting 53.00 S/R.

H4 timeframe:

Supply from 0.7234/0.7199 (intersects with a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7214) greeted price action on Thursday, yet attempts to the downside have so far been curbed by demand at 0.7177/0.7154 (prior supply). Note the half-hearted hammer candlestick pattern recently formed (bullish cue).

The lack of selling interest will have market participants consider the possibility of further buying to trendline resistance (prior support – 0.7076) and supply coming in from 0.7234/0.7286.

H1 timeframe:

0.72, which has served well as an S/R level in the past, received intraday flow heading into the US session on Thursday. 0.7178/0.7163 currently offers demand (a prior supply zone), located nearby trendline support (0.7005).

Puncturing 0.72 to the upside has a resistance area at 0.7262/0.7247 to target. It might also interest some traders to note the RSI indicator has support stationed around 48.60, active since September 28.

Structures of Interest:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Monthly price testing 0.7029/0.6664 as demand prompts a bullish theme, enough to perhaps force daily price further beyond supply from 0.7131/0.7192.

This, although H4 supply at 0.7234/0.7199 potentially poses a problem for buyers, may ignite interest above the 0.72 level today, a move likely to be welcomed by breakout buyers in favour of reaching H1 resistance at 0.7262/0.7247.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

September, as you can see, tested the lower boundary of the aforesaid pattern and ended the month off worst levels.

Areas of interest outside of the triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Recovery gains off monthly support at 104.62 (the lower boundary of the monthly descending triangle), despite price stalling around the 105.50 neighbourhood this week, invites the prospect of additional bullish sentiment towards trendline resistance (111.71) and nearby supply at 107.58/106.85 (joined by the 200-day simple moving average at 107.52).

The RSI, for those who follow momentum oscillators, recently bottomed ahead of oversold levels and is on course to retest resistance around 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Despite lacklustre performance out of supply at 105.82/105.66, an area that stores a 61.8% Fib level within its upper boundary at 105.81, the zone remains a tough nut to crack.

Additional areas of interest on the H4 chart are resistance at 105.98, supply from 106.38/106.23 and demand seen at 104.92/105.09.

H1 timeframe:

Since September 25, intraday activity has been entrenched within an ascending channel between 105.20/105.70.

Thursday recovered just ahead of channel support with enough impetus to take on 105.50 resistance and the 100-period simple moving average. If buyers maintain a position above 105.50, channel resistance is next in the firing line, with a break uncovering supply at 106.05/105.91.

With reference to the RSI indicator, the value rebounded from support at 37.20 yesterday, topping just ahead of 62.90 resistance.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly support at 104.62 (lower base of the monthly descending triangle) holding price higher in September, along with the daily chart exhibiting room to approach trendline resistance and supply coming in from 107.58/106.85, signals buyers still have a hand in this fight.

The above informs market participants that sellers out of H4 supply 105.82/105.66 are unlikely to deliver anything to write home about, and therefore suggests H1 channel support and 105.50 support may be an area watched by intraday buyers today.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance taken from 2.1161 unopposed, September sunk 3.4 percent, on track to retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191). Interestingly, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Sterling snapped a five-day losing streak within supply at 1.3021/1.2844 Thursday, though remained off session lows into the close.

Demand at 1.2645/1.2773, along with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2714, are areas to watch to the downside, while a push higher could see resistance at 1.3201 enter the frame.

The RSI indicator recently formed a double-bottom ahead of oversold space, and now currently hovers within touching distance of resistance at 55.00.

H4 timeframe:

After running through the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern (1.2929/1.2828), price action aggressively retreated and retested the broken border as support. Despite surpassing the line to test lows at 1.2819, the pair just as aggressively recovered and struck the pattern’s take-profit target situated around the 1.2980 region (green).

With the pair struggling to find acceptance beyond 1.2980, reaching supply at 1.3055/1.3018 may be difficult. This unearths the possibility of support at 1.2773 making a show.

H1 timeframe:

Amidst Brexit news flow, volatility increased heading into Europe on Thursday, dropping through 1.29 to greet demand at 1.2810/1.2833, an area sharing space with the 100-period simple moving average (and plotted just ahead of the 1.28 level).

Following a spike above 1.29, moves that came within close proximity of the 1.30 level, the US session pulled things lower with price entering a state of calm around the underside of 1.29.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly price shows space to extend September’s losses until testing trendline support (prior resistance). In conjunction with the monthly timeframe, daily price is seen exploring the range of supply at 1.3021/1.2844, though sellers have yet to commit here. From an intraday perspective, H1 currently holds under 1.29 and H4 hovers a few pips ahead of the upper edge of the falling wedge pattern (support).

• A H1 close above 1.29 informs sellers within daily supply that the area might be on the verge of giving way, and simultaneously provides intraday buyers an opportunity to seek bullish setups.

• Holding under 1.29, on the other hand, and crossing under the 100-period simple moving average, suggests intraday sellers may target at least 1.28.

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