November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26

November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, buyers and sellers have since squared off around the upper section of supply from 1.1857/1.1352. Though this argues additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641), a dip to retest the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support) is also still on the table.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.4940 is engulfed (May 2 high [2011]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.2012/1.1937 remains a key zone to be mindful of on the daily chart, active since May 2018. Another interesting feature is an early falling wedge pattern between 1.2011 and 1.1612. Yet, do be aware some may interpret this arrangement as a descending triangle pattern.

In terms of support beyond the aforesaid pattern, 1.1553 and 1.1495 offer prominent levels.

RSI fans will also note the value recently rotated higher above 50.00, though remains rooted within the upper region of an ascending channel.

H4 timeframe:

Efforts to join hands with supply at 1.1928/1.1902 (prior demand) have so far failed – price carved out two closely linked tops around 1.1892 Tuesday/Wednesday. It should be noted the aforesaid supply is sited underneath daily supply parked at 1.2012/1.1937, currently encasing the upper line of the daily falling wedge pattern.

Limited demand is seen to the south of price until engaging with 1.1711/1.1746.

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 1.1849/1.1857 made an entrance early in the session Wednesday, securing a reasonably healthy bid to highs at 1.1891. Heading into the close, however, price is seen toying with opening levels around demand, alongside trendline support (1.1745) and the 100-period simple moving average.

Although demand recently re-entered play, traders may also want to note the RSI indicator dipped beneath its 50.00 level.

Observed levels:

The mixture of H1 demand at 1.1849/1.1857, the H1 trendline support and the 100-period simple moving average, may be an area intraday buyers show interest in today, having noted monthly price rotating from demand at 1.1857/1.1352.

A break of the aforesaid H1 trendline support, nonetheless, indicates an intraday bearish scene could be in store, with 1.18 in the frame as possible support.

November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The months of September and October, as you can see, developed a mild correction and addressed the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). Buyers have so far responded well from the demand (up by 4 percent in November), free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Supply at 0.7345/0.7287 (a rally-base-drop formation) remains in the frame, though under pressure as monthly buyers continue to flex off demand. Neighbouring supply at 0.7453/0.7384, extended from August 2018, therefore, could soon be thrown in the mix.

The RSI indicator continues to languish beneath overbought space, following the removal of 52.00 resistance at the beginning of November.

H4 timeframe:

Demand at 0.7281/0.7297, as you can see, greeted price action Wednesday and, overall, held position.

Familiar resistance at 0.7340 (a horizontal level that’s held buyers back since the beginning of September) is seen to the upside.

Failure to hold gains throws light on channel support (prior resistance – 0.7340) and support charged at 0.7210.

H1 timeframe:

The response from the 100-period simple moving average and demand at 0.7262/0.7273 directed buyers above 0.73 heading into the European session Wednesday and shined light on resistance at 0.7340 and 0.7350 resistance. You will also note the round number served as support going into US trading and is, as we enter Thursday’s session, hovering just ahead of the round number.

Observed levels:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Healthy buying off monthly demand at 0.7029/0.6664, in conjunction with what appears to be fragile daily supply from 0.7345/0.7287, could see 0.73 (H1) attract buyers to at least H4 resistance at 0.7340 today.

November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

November, as you can see, is seen working through the lower edge of the aforesaid pattern, down by 0.9 percent.

104.62 ceding ground shines light on demand from 96.41/100.81, followed by trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Leaving behind supply from 106.33/105.78 and trendline resistance (111.68), as well as RSI resistance at 57.00, sellers have since made a strong show in the shape of five successive daily bear candles.

Downside risk remains, with light on 103.17 lows (November 6) and demand at 100.68/101.85, drawn from September 2016.

H4 timeframe:

After puncturing support at 104.11 in early trade on Wednesday, this, technically, cleared space for a test of rather large demand priced from 103.04/103.58, extended from March 2020 (holds the 103.17 lows on the daily timeframe).

H1 timeframe:

103.60/103.70 support on the H1 chart stepped forward on Wednesday, shortly after a 104 retest. The response was initially positive, though optimism petered out at supply from 103.98/103.84 as we moved through US hours.

A bearish presence from the aforesaid supply today, moves that dethrone 103.60/103.70, draws light towards H4 demand at 103.04/103.58.

It should also be noted the RSI oscillator recently paid a visit to oversold space and is on track to challenge the underside of 50.00.

Observed levels:

With all four timeframes leaning towards a bearish course, sellers may pursue bearish strategies out of H1 supply from 103.98/103.84, with 103.58 (top edge of H4 demand) and 103.17 lows targeted.

November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Price, despite November trading higher by 2.5 percent, remains lingering between trendline resistance (2.1161) and trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191).

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Since crossing paths with demand at 1.2645/1.2773 and 200-day simple moving average in late September, GBP/USD has displayed a gradual interest to the upside. Further buying targets the 1.3483 September high.

H4 timeframe:

Following the rebound from 1.3182 support at the beginning of the week, buyers and sellers are now seen squaring off around supply at 1.3320/1.3281, an area joined by channel resistance (1.3176) and a collection of Fib studies around 1.3307.

Clearing the above said supply today could have supply at 1.3402/1.3368 move into position.

H1 timeframe:

As you can see, price action remains compressing within two converging trendlines, forming a rising wedge pattern from 1.3109/1.3242 (blue).

As of current price, after fading 1.33 resistance, the pair is seen approaching the lower limit of the rising wedge. A break here, knowing H4 is tackling supply at 1.3320/1.3281, sheds light on H1 trendline support (1.2853), followed by 1.32 support.

Observed levels:

Short term, GBP/USD sellers may govern direction and take out H1 rising wedge support, fuelled by H4 sellers out of supply from 1.3320/1.3281. Sellers are likely to remain cautious, however, owing to the space seen for higher timeframes to advance.

November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26, FP Markets

 

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  • November 19th 2020: DXY off Lows at Daily Support from 92.26, FP Markets
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