EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, buyers and sellers have since been squaring off around the upper section of supply from 1.1857/1.1352. Whilst this argues additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641), a dip to retest the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support) is still on the table.

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.4940 is engulfed (May 2 high [2011]).

Daily timeframe:

Recently extending Monday’s corrective slide, formed under supply at 1.2012/1.1937 (extended from May 2018), shines light back on September’s low at 1.1612, together with support close by at 1.1553.

Despite the correction, RSI fans will note we remain hovering above 50.00.

H4 timeframe:

Wednesday on the H4, nevertheless, ran into trouble as price crossed paths with fresh demand at 1.1711/1.1746. The reaction from this area is not a surprise – as stated in Wednesday’s piece, this demand is an important zone; it was here a decision was made to dethrone last Wednesday’s high at 1.1770.

Although there’s some wood to chop through around the 1.1830 region, buyers long this market will likely note supply from 1.1928/1.1902 (prior demand).

H1 timeframe:

After stripping 1.18 support heading into London on Wednesday and retesting the level to form resistance, price made a play for 1.1750 support, a mid-round number accompanied by demand at 1.1727/1.1744 and an RSI oversold signal (RSI resistance seen at 55.94).

Trendline resistance (1.1920) is next in line if buyers remain on their current course, with subsequent buying to perhaps reconsider 1.18 as a resistance level.

Observed levels:

Intraday, it would appear buyers are behind the wheel at the moment. Rallying to the 1.18 level is possible on the H1, perhaps higher according to the H4 chart which shows room to approach 1.1830. Note the 100-period simple moving average on the H1 chart currently stands at 1.1831.

In light of the analysis, 1.1850 resistance on the H1 is possibly on the radar. Formed together with H4 structure around 1.1830, this area could hamper buying and offer sellers a platform to pursue bearish strategies, in line with daily direction pointing lower.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The months of September and October, as you can see, developed a mild correction and addressed the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). Buyers have so far responded well from demand (up by 3.6 percent in November), free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

As you can see from the daily chart, minimal change has taken place since kicking off the week. Notably, though, we are testing supply at 0.7345/0.7287 (a rally-base-drop formation) and forming shooting star candle patterns.

Attention will be drawn to supply seated just above at 0.7453/0.7384, taken from August 2018, if buyers take hold. Demand fixed from 0.6964/0.7042, on the other hand, represents a reasonable target if sellers make a show.

The RSI indicator loiters ahead of overbought territory, leaving behind resistance at 52.00.

H4 timeframe:

Technical levels to be mindful of on this timeframe remain at resistance chalked up at 0.7340 and demand at 0.7253/0.7237 (prior supply), an area sheltering a support level at 0.7210.

H1 timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Following on From Tuesday’s analysis, traders will note Monday’s volatility shaped a head and shoulder’s top pattern, with the peak (the head) formed off resistance at 0.7327 and a neckline drawn from 0.7267.

Although now not the prettiest of technical patterns, the H&S top remains in play following bearish moves under 0.73 Wednesday that took on nearby trendline support (0.6993) and the 100-period simple moving average. In fact, as we write, the latter is offering resistance around 0.7279, promoting a drive to 0.72, the H&S pattern’s take-profit target (yellow).

It might also interest some readers to note the RSI oscillator rebounded from support at 42.48 once again yesterday, yet buyers appear to be losing grip.

Observed levels:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Monthly price rebounding from demand at 0.7029/0.6664 is likely weighing on countertrend strategies off daily supply at 0.7345/0.7287.

H1 recently penetrating the head and shoulder’s neckline and taking on H1 supports may eventually trigger an intraday bearish move to around 0.72 (set just beneath H4 support at 0.7210). However, in order to reach this far south, H4 demand at 0.7253/0.7237 must be overtaken.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

Notably, November, up by 0.8 percent, is rebounding from the lower edge of the aforesaid pattern.

However, 104.62 giving way shines light on demand from 96.41/100.81, followed by trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Thanks to Monday’s 2-percent advance, and a modest bullish tone Tuesday/Wednesday, supply at 106.33/105.78 and intersecting trendline resistance (111.68) is within close range. On top of this, RSI resistance at 57.00 also made it to the show yesterday.

H4 timeframe:

Following another visit to demand at 104.84/105.07 Wednesday, price darted towards supply at 105.79/105.57, set up just below supply at 105.98/105.80.

H1 timeframe:

Since the beginning of the week, the arrangement of price action on the H1 appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern (105.64/104.82). By some this is considered a continuation pattern, though others have noted resistance can sometimes prove too strong and form a reversal pattern.

A breakout higher has 106 to target; a breakout to the downside, nonetheless, elbows demand at 104.74/104.96 (fastened to the underside of H4 demand at 104.84/105.07).

Observed levels:

Monthly price could hold the descending triangle support at 104.62 and prompt a H1 breakout above the chart’s ascending triangle pattern. Though, we do have to take into account there’s also a chance buying could be hampered by daily supply at 106.33/105.78 (and trendline resistance), as well as H4 supply areas at 105.98/105.80 and 105.79/105.57.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance (2.1161) unopposed, the month of September fell 3.4 percent by way of a bearish outside reversal candle and snapped a three-month winning streak. This, despite November trading higher by 2.1 percent at the moment, advertises a possible dip to retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191).

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Resistance at 1.3201 was recently overrun, with Wednesday modestly correcting and retesting the level. In view of room to approach the 1.3483 September peak as possible resistance, a bullish scene could develop off 1.3201.

Demand at 1.2645/1.2773, resting below 1.2860 bottoms, demands attention if 1.3201 fails to harvest support.

The RSI oscillator marginally turned over ahead of overbought space Wednesday.

H4 timeframe:

Channel resistance (1.3176), surfacing just south of supply at 1.3320/1.3281 (and a collection of Fib studies around 1.3307) did a superb job holding back buyers on Wednesday. This is price action confluence at its best.

Downside subsequently saw price hit levels just ahead of support at 1.3182, with the pair mildly pairing losses into the closing bell.

H1 timeframe:

The 1.33 level proved effective resistance as price stepped into London on Wednesday, directing flow into demand at 1.3167/1.3200, an important zone given it was here a decision was made to climb above 1.32. The demand is also seen sharing space with a 100-period simple moving average.

With respect to the RSI oscillator, trendline support was penetrated yesterday. The value has yet to test oversold levels, currently pulling back and on track to retest the trendline.

Observed levels:

The reaction, albeit mild, from H1 demand at 1.3167/1.3200, along with daily price retesting support at 1.3201 and H4 coming within close range of testing support at 1.3182, could stimulate a bullish revival today.

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.