9 days to go in the US presidential election race, and there are some interesting developments taking place to add to the mayhem that will be the last week of the election.
First is a possible ‘re-emergence’ of the Tea Party movement in the Republican controlled Senate. The third COVID bill last week had words like ‘optimistic’ attached to it as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin got closer and closer to a deal believed to be in the range of US$2.2 trillion – the amount the Democrats have always wanted. What was more interesting is the President appeared to back the deal and stated that he wanted ‘a deal done’ before November 3.
However, that was counted by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stating that if a stimulus package cames before the Senate, passed by the House and backed by President Trump, “[he] would consider it” and was followed up with Republican Senator Thune stating “it would be hard” to find enough Republican Senators to back a $1.8 trillion stimulus let alone a US$2.2 trillion bill – A sign the Tea Party Movement is back, and if a ‘Light Blue’ scenario plays out at the ballot box (Biden President, House Democrat, Senate Republican) get ready for gridlock of the highest order and possibly one of the worst outcomes of the elections.
Second was the address from the FBI stating that both Iran and Russia have gained access to people’s electoral details and were trying to interfere with the election. This will give further ammunition to the President’s claims the election isn’t ‘free and fair’ and that its likely to be ‘fraudulent’ setting up a race to the Supreme Court.
Have a look at the gap in the 15min chart of the Dollar Basket off the back of the interference news.
With the President blitzing Purple states which will lead to a tightening of the polls. We are of the belief more of these gapping events will arise. Remember Trump only needs to target a small number of swing counties leading to a change of a handful of votes to swing a Florida, a Pennsylvania, a Michigan. Be under no illusions it is very much game on, and volatility will therefore follow it.