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Market Insight for the Week Ending 16 June
- June 10, 2023
It is an important week for the financial markets. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) defying market consensus and increasing rates by 25 basis points last week, the question is whether the Federal Reserve will follow suit at Wednesday’s meeting at 7 pm GMT+1. Most economists (Bloomberg) forecast
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AUD/USD Crossing above the 200-Day SMA
- June 8, 2023
Monthly Uptrend? From the monthly timeframe, the AUD/USD has been entrenched in a downtrend since 2011. However, downside momentum has evidently decelerated. The pullback from early 2020 (low of $0.5506) to the high of $0.8007 (February 2021) is deep—deeper than any previous pullback seen in the current downtrend, indicating possible strength on the side of
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BoC Surprise Hike; Further Downside for USD/CAD?
- June 7, 2023
Active Higher Timeframe Technical Support From the monthly timeframe, chart pattern enthusiasts will acknowledge that since October 2022, price movement has been compressing between converging ascending/descending lines from C$1.3978 and C$1.3226 to form a potential pennant pattern. As you can see, price is now testing the lower boundary of the aforementioned pattern. To be clear,
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Australian Dollar Following RBA Hike
- June 6, 2023
AUD/USD Approaching Resistance The Australian dollar is a clear outperformer in the G10 space today, underpinned by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) defying market consensus (once again) and pulling the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points higher to 4.1%. The AUD/USD, however, is nearing the underside of its 200-day simple moving average (currently fluctuating
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AUD/USD Short-Term Technical View; Stacked Demand Breach?
- June 5, 2023
M5 Timeframe – Taking more of a shorter-term view of AUD/USD today, I see price action recently just rebounded from stacked demand between areas at $0.6605-$0.6607 and $0.6606-$0.6614. We have probed above a recent intraday high of $0.6627 and tested the resistance at $0.6628 (ish). This also throws light on the session high of $0.6637.
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Market Insight for the Week Ending 9 June
- June 3, 2023
Friday welcomed the latest US employment situation report. Once more, US non-farm employment change defied market consensus; the US economy added an eye-popping 339,000 new payrolls in May, almost double the median consensus (190,000) and marks a 14th consecutive month of exceeding expectations. However, while employment change depicts a resilient labour market, which forms part
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200-Day SMA Targeted for the Dollar Index?
- May 31, 2023
The US Dollar Index is poised to close out the month of May 2.8% higher, reclaiming all the prior month’s downside and a large portion of the 2.3% drop in March. Needless to say, it’s been a positive month for the greenback, which is likely to continue into June, according to chart studies. Leaving support
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XAU/USD Appears Vulnerable
- May 25, 2023
As the US dollar continues to find grip at higher levels—underpinned by a rally in US government yields—the price of spot gold (XAU/USD) is in relatively deep water. Higher-Timeframe Picture Shows Gold Approaching Support Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641
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GBP/USD Continues to Navigate Deeper Waters
- May 24, 2023
For those who read the previous technical view I posted on the GBP/USD currency pair, price action has indeed continued to pursue lower levels. Short-Term Price Action Sub $1.24 Despite efforts to shape support from the $1.24 region, recent hours witnessed price elbow beneath the psychological level. This followed a near-pip-perfect H1 AB=CD harmonic bearish
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Market Insight for the Week Ending 26 May
- May 20, 2023
The final full week of May is upon us and delivers a range of heavyweight data to be conscious of this week. Monday will be relatively quiet; the calendar lacks tier-1 economic data, and Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Victoria Day. Tuesday will see a slew of manufacturing and services PMIs released
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Diamond Top Out of the Question for the S&P 500
- May 18, 2023
I wrote about the S&P 500 in recent analysis, emphasising the following (italics): Although there is a chance of the daily chart’s diamond top pattern completing and price breaking out lower (given weekly resistance at 4,177), the uptrend and absence of bearish activity at the said weekly resistance potentially swings the technical pendulum in favour
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DXY Approaching KEY Resistance
- May 18, 2023
Upbeat economic data underpinned the US Dollar Index in recent trading and firmly shifted attention to a key resistance level on the daily timeframe at 103.85. Given the latest USD strength, a break of the aforementioned level will not surprise. Should a breakout higher materialise, you will find that short-term traders are likely to drill
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