It is no secret that markets are widely expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to skip this evening and perhaps hike at the July meeting.

At the European close, we have a reasonably clear risk-on vibe. We seldom see this kind of price action ahead of major Fed rate decisions, but global equity markets have largely rallied across the board. Commodities are also higher, as of writing, with the safe-haven buck trading firmly in the red heading into the event. Yields are also lower.

Short-term technicals show the US Dollar Index nearing support at 102.69 on the 15-minute timeframe, with M15 resistance calling for attention at 102.80. Also of technical relevance is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) navigating oversold waters, though this indicator can remain oversold for a prolonged period in down trending markets.

Are traders likely to enter long from the aforementioned support level? Unlikely; the sentiment is clearly very bearish for the greenback right now.

Therefore, a break of current support is likely to be seen which may trigger breakout selling heading into the decision and (30 minutes later) the press conference, targeting around 102.55ish.

Charts: TradingView

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