Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.

The Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: Dollar on the Ropes

Daily Timeframe –

Following the break of channel support (extended from the low of 100.62) and subsequent push through the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) at 103.73 and 103.44, respectively, as well as support from 103.62 (now marked resistance), support is calling for attention at 102.92.

So, for now, the short-term technical picture forecasts further selling until at least 102.92.

However, having noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made its way south of the 50.00 centreline (negative momentum), breaching 102.92 also remains on the table. Probing beneath the noted level could trigger follow-through breakout selling in the direction of a support area between 101.44 and 101.77.

Commodities: XAU/USD to Retest Previous All-Time High

Daily Timeframe –

In this ‘buy everything market’ right now, the price of spot gold finished Wednesday higher for a sixth consecutive session and, as of writing, refreshed all-time highs at $2,161. Given that we are trading in unchartered territory, void of resistance, a retest of the previous all-time high could come about at $2,148, which could prompt additional outperformance.

The caveat to this move, of course, is the upcoming US NFP data and this market being technically overbought. According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), momentum to the upside could begin to slow after reaching levels of 81.47, a base not seen since early 2022.

Equities: ‘Alternate’ AB=CD Bullish Pattern on the Dow

Daily Timeframe –

Major US equity benchmarks continue to outperform, recording fresh all-time highs. However, in recent moves, a mild correction is seen taking shape, one that has opened the door to a particularly interesting bullish formation on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow).

As evident from the daily timeframe, price is closing in on an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bullish formation, depicted by a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at 38,421—one of the simpler harmonic patterns. Should a test of this level come to fruition, buyers tend to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios of legs A-D. But, in light of the uptrend in play, buyers from this level will likely target beyond these ratios in anticipation of fresh record highs unfolding.

Cryptocurrency: ETH/USD to Take Aim At Resistance from $4,299?

Weekly Timeframe –

Against the US dollar, Ethereum is poised to end a sixth week in positive territory.

After venturing north of resistance at $3,723 this week, unearthing possible support, this could set the stage for further buying towards another layer of resistance from $4,299.

Ultimately, given the clear uptrend, it’s a simple chart this week: traders will likely be watching for price to hold above $3,723 to target $4,299. Some will prefer to wait and see if the week closes north of $3,723 and form a subsequent retest as support (this is used as a means of filtering out false breakouts), while others will be satisfied with entering long based on a weekly close above $3,723.

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.