Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.

The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: USD/JPY Eyeing 1990 Highs

Monthly Timeframe –

The USD/JPY currency pair recently refreshed multi-decade highs of ¥154.79, a move probing offers at channel resistance, taken from the high of ¥125.85. With resistance lacking here, this not only helps pave the way to test the mettle of ¥160.20 (highs from as far back as the 1990s) but also increases concerns about an intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

While bulls are still firmly at the wheel, and further upside could be seen towards the ¥160ish area, a correction and retest of neighbouring support at ¥150.80 or even the recently breached channel resistance could still play out before attempting higher terrain. Another consideration worth taking on board, of course, is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forming early signs of negative divergence.

Commodities: WTI Oil Closing in on 200/50-Day SMAs

Daily Timeframe –

While WTI oil has pulled back from year-to-date highs of $87.59 in recent days, reclaiming support from $85.20 (now marked resistance), we are currently testing the grip of support at $81.69. South of here, we can also see the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $79.78 and $80.76, respectively, which recently chalked up a Golden Cross (long-term bullish trend signal), and happens to be located near another layer of support from $77.55.

Ultimately, we are in an uptrend at the moment, and the pullback from YTD highs may, therefore, underpin a possible dip-buying narrative in this market from the noted support levels.

Equities: S&P 500 Touching Gloves with Key Support

Weekly Timeframe –

Down -4.4% MTD, the S&P 500 has pulled back from all-time highs of 5,264 (formed in March) and tested the walls of an interesting support zone between the 5,000 level and a channel resistance-turned-potential support line taken from the high of 4,607. Given that this market remains entrenched in an uptrend, this could be a location where we observe dip-buyers enter the fight. Failure to hold here could trigger a meaningful push lower to support coming in at 4,743.

Cryptocurrency: Is BTC/USD Poised for Deeper Waters?

Daily Timeframe –

With the halving event nearing and anticipation clearly building, the technical picture delivers a rather somewhat pessimistic picture for the BTC/USD pairing.

Recent trading has seen a bullish pennant pattern failure occur (drawn from the all-time highs of $73,845 and $59,033), with the unit venturing south of support drawn from $64,000. Also relevant is that price action has retested the underside of the recently breached structure, suggesting resistance. Adding to this bearish vibe, trend studies also demonstrate early signs of a downtrend, displayed through lower lows and lower highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently crossed beneath indicator trendline support, extended from the low of 24.03.

Assuming bears remain in the driving seat, Fibonacci support between $51,367 and $53,172 calls for attention, followed by the pattern profit objective derived from the failed pennant pattern structure at $48,257 (drawn from the base value and extended from the breakout point).

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