Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.

The Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.

Forex: EUR/USD Buyers Resilient

Monthly Timeframe –

Price action on the monthly chart of the EUR/USD offers an interesting technical landscape to work with. You will acknowledge that support from $1.0519 has served as a technical floor since the beginning of 2023 and remains the case as we near the end of Q1 2024. Overhead, ascending support-turned-resistance (drawn from the low of $1.0340 – formed by way of a bullish engulfing candle in 2017) has also established a technical ceiling.

While the currency is still undeniably entrenched in a long-term downtrend (since 2008), the tide may be beginning to change. Take note that January’s (2024) reaction from the noted ascending support-turned-resistance failed to generate much follow-through downside. In fact, we printed an indecision candle in February, and March is up by +1.3%. This highlights strength on the side of buyers for the time being, and continued upside in this market could eventually see the unit overthrow the ascending support-turned-resistance, a move that may pencil in a higher high. However, while a higher high would effectively confirm an early uptrend for the currency pair, traders will likely seek a break of neighbouring long-term trendline resistance (extended from the high of $1.6037) before having conviction in the beginnings of an uptrend.

Commodities: XAU/USD to Retest Previous All-Time High

H4 Timeframe –

Following the price of spot gold (XAU/USD) clocking an all-time high of $2,195 last week, the yellow metal has chalked up a moderate correction. Not only has the correction begun forming the shape of an AB=CD bullish pattern, terminating at $2,135 (denoted by a 100% projection ratio), but it has also thrown light back on the previous all-time high of $2,147.50 as a possible barrier of support.

As a consequence of the above, and assuming sellers continue to navigate lower prices, a potential area of support exists between $2,135 and $2,147.50, one that may trigger dip-buying.

Equities: Upside Momentum on S&P 500 Continues to Slow

Daily Timeframe –

There is no denying that S&P 500 buyers remain in the driving seat, though for how long?

And if a correction materialises, where is support likely to emerge?

Based on price action, it is not difficult to see that although we continue to refresh all-time highs, momentum to the upside has been lacklustre since 23 February. In addition, we can also see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been signalling negative divergence since early February.

In view of this, technical studies suggest a correction could take form and draw price action back to the widely watched 5,000 level, a base which may also be welcomed by dip-buyers looking for levels to enter into the uptrend.

Cryptocurrency: DOG/USD Threatening to Overthrow Resistance

Daily Timeframe –

The resistance between $0.21937 and $0.19479 recently welcomed price action and initially observed sellers put in an appearance. Unable to dethrone nearby support between $0.13918 and $0.15792, this has led DOG/USD back to within a stone’s throw away from the lower side of resistance.

In a market that has been trending higher since October 2023, the technical pendulum swings in favour of buyers at this point. Consequently, overthrowing current resistance could unleash another wave of upside, targeting resistance from $0.27161.

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