EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

August, as you can see, toppled supply from 1.1857/1.1352 and extended space north of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038), arguing additional upside may be on the horizon, targeting trendline resistance (prior support – 1.1641).

Trading in September, however, concluded lower by 1.8 percent, snapping a four-month winning streak and establishing an outside reversal candle pattern. This refocuses attention on the recently penetrated trendline resistance (support).

The primary downtrend (since July 2008) remains intact until 1.2555 is engulfed (Feb 1 high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Channel resistance (prior support – 1.1695) recently made an arrival. A pivotal rejection here rolls supports at 1.1553 and 1.1495 in focus, located just under 1.1612 (September 25 low) and also pinned just north of demand at 1.1369/1.1450.

The RSI oscillator, as you can see, is tackling the 50.00 region and trendline resistance.

H4 timeframe:

Thursday finished a relatively lacklustre session rebounding from channel support (1.1684), shaped in the form of a hammer candlestick configuration, generally interpreted as a bullish signal at troughs.

Additional bullish sentiment may have buyers embrace channel resistance (1.1769), with a break uncovering supply at 1.1872/1.1838, a rally-base-drop formation. Lack of buying interest, on the other hand, signals a possible revisit at demand from 1.1682/1.1716.

H1 timeframe:

Demand at 1.1719/1.1735 welcomed a second retest heading into the US session on Thursday, prompting a swift rebound back above 1.1750 resistance. Though the 100-period simple moving average is still in motion, additional upside may see familiar supply at 1.1790/1.1772 resurface (located under the 1.18 level).

Structures of Interest:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Longer term, despite taking out the upper edge of monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, September’s depreciation echoes the possibility of further declines to retest the recently penetrated monthly trendline. Additionally, daily price is responding from channel resistance.

Shorter term, although the higher timeframes indicate a bearish vibe, H4 responding from channel support and H1 closing above 1.1750 resistance points to the possibility of an intraday advance forming today. The H1 supply above 1.18 at 1.1818/1.1828 (prior demand) rests as a possible target, an area conveniently aligning with channel resistance on the H4 (1.1769).

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of September (lower by 2.9 percent) snapped a five-month winning streak and tested the upper border of demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply). From here, buyers appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, though, traders might want to take into account the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Despite back-to-back gains, supply at 0.7131/0.7192 (prior demand) remains a prominent base on the daily timeframe. Lower on the curve, demand resides at 0.6964/0.7042.

The trend, according to the daily timeframe, has highlighted a positive tone since bottoming in late March. Traders may also recognise the RSI indicator is seen closing in on 53.00 S/R.

H4 timeframe:

Thursday left behind a modestly bullish vibe, extending recovery gains from demand at 0.7073/0.7097, an area that encloses support from 0.7080.

Supply from 0.7234/0.7199 (intersects with a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7214 and a 50.00% level at 0.7209), located just above daily supply at 0.7131/0.7192, is viewed.

H1 timeframe:

Supply at 0.7170/0.7145, as anticipated (see Thursday’s analysis), struggled to attract fresh selling on Thursday, leading to a H1 close forming above 0.7150. The latter was later retested (technically aided by the 100-period simple moving average) and consequently nudged price action towards the upper border of supply.

This suggests 0.72 could make an entrance, a resistance that’s held back buyers since the beginning of October.

Structures of Interest:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Monthly price is seen testing 0.7029/0.6664 as demand, structurally prompting a bullish theme. The daily timeframe, however, remains flirting with supply at 0.7131/0.7192, albeit attracting limited interest from sellers right now.

With monthly price suggesting higher levels and H4 action showing a relatively clear run to supply at 0.7234/0.7199, H1 supply at 0.7170/0.7145 is potentially on the brink of giving way. With this being the case, buyers from the 0.7150 retest may consider pyramiding their position on a breakout north of H1 supply, with 0.72 targeted.

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

September, as you can see, tested the lower boundary of the aforesaid pattern and ended the month modestly off worst levels.

Areas of interest outside of the triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Recovery gains off monthly support at 104.62 (the lower boundary of the monthly descending triangle) invites the prospect of additional bullish sentiment towards daily trendline resistance (111.71) and nearby daily supply at 107.58/106.85 (joined by the 200-day simple moving average at 107.45).

The RSI, as you can see, is now within a stone’s throw from familiar resistance around 57.00.

H4 timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Price, as you can see, recently joined hands with resistance at 105.98.

Retreating from the aforesaid resistance throws light on demand at 105.52/105.69; a continuation move higher, on the other hand, exposes supply at 106.38/106.23.

H1 timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Thursday entered a tight phase of consolidation around the 106 level, following Wednesday rebounding from support at 105.86.

Newly formed demand at 105.71/77 is seen beneath 105.86, while holding north of 106.00 shines light on a possible approach to resistance at 106.26.

With respect to the RSI indicator, we’re hovering above the 50.00 point following Wednesday’s dip from overbought space.

Structures of Interest:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Monthly support at 104.62 (lower base of the monthly descending triangle) holding price higher in September, along with the daily chart exhibiting room to approach trendline resistance and supply coming in from 107.58/106.85, signals buyers still have a reasonably strong hand in this fight.

In light of the higher timeframes, H4 resistance from 105.98 offers a fragile tone. This, therefore, suggests dip-buyers may attempt to make a show should we retest H1 support at 105.86 again or demand at 105.71/77.

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Leaving trendline resistance taken from 2.1161 unopposed, September sunk 3.4 percent by way of a bearish outside reversal candle, on track to perhaps retest trendline support (prior resistance – 1.7191). Interestingly, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April 2 high 2018.

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Supply at 1.3021/1.2844 continues to entertain price movement on the daily timeframe (located ahead of resistance at 1.3201), following the prior week’s rebound from demand at 1.2645/1.2773 (and 200-day simple moving average at 1.2710).

With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is still seen hovering ahead of resistance at 55.00, after journeying from just north of oversold terrain.

H4 timeframe:

Partially modified from previous analysis –

Demand at 1.2836/1.2881 (a drop-base-rally formation) received price action on Wednesday, by way of back-to-back hammer candle patterns. Despite weakened upside, Thursday held a bullish tone and signalled buyers may eventually take a crack at supply from 1.3055/1.3018, with a break shining light on another supply at 1.3116/1.3160 (prior demand).

A decline, on the other hand, could see buyers and sellers square off at support from 1.2773.

H1 timeframe:

Slicing above the 100-period simple moving average in early trading Thursday led to a test of trendline resistance (prior support – 1.2687) heading into the European session. This followed through with decisive downside to retest 1.29, which held into the closing bell.

As we move into Friday’s session, the candles are seen toying with the 100-period SMA. A breakout to the upside shines the headlights on the widely watched 1.30 level, as well as the aforesaid trendline resistance, and another nearby resistance level at 1.3023 (green).

Structures of Interest:

Although monthly price displays the possibility of downside, daily supply at 1.3021/1.2844 has yet to see price print much bearish action. This, together with H4 demonstrating scope to approach supply at 1.3055/1.3018, may have H1 buyers take hold of the 100-period SMA today and zero in on 1.30.

1.30, assuming a test of the level, could also serve as a platform for bearish themes. Not only does the figure bring additional H1 resistance to the table, we also have the lower edge of H4 supply at 1.3018 circling nearby.

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