Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Prime support at $1.1473-1.1583 echoes a vulnerable vibe, emphasised through failure to find acceptance above $1.1692 highs.

$1.1981-1.1848 supply is recognised as the next upside objective should buyers regain dominance, yet further underperformance shines the technical spotlight on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281.

Daily timeframe:

An intense USD bid Thursday—DXY zeroing in on 2021 pinnacles—weighed on EUR/USD upside. Despite US Treasury yields navigating deeper water, the currency pair is fast approaching Fibonacci support between $1.1420 and $1.1522, an area fastened to the lower side of weekly support.

Upstream features Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.1689, and trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.2254.

Sentiment has favoured downside since June, which is currently in line with the relative strength index (RSI) circling below the 50.00 centreline. South of 50.00 shows average losses outweigh average gains, directing a possible test of oversold.  

H4 timeframe:

Leaving the $1.1636-1.1620 decision point unopposed, early trading forged a one-sided decline on Thursday and propelled the unit to Quasimodo support at $1.1541.

Failure to promote bullish growth from $1.1541 re-opens the risk of a return to support at $1.1495, a clean support and resistance level boasting strong historical significance.

H1 timeframe:

US hours directed the technical spotlight to Quasimodo support from $1.1533, a level not only sharing chart space with the H4 timeframe’s Quasimodo support at $1.1541, but also confirmed by the relative strength index (RSI) forming bullish divergence. RSI followers will note the indicator is on the verge of pencilling in a bullish failure swing (red line: 39.47).

Continued interest to the upside pulls resistance in at $1.1575. This is an important technical level, formed by way of a breached Quasimodo support level. Subsequent interest higher up shows $1.16 could re-enter the frame.

Observed Technical Levels:

Short term, extending recovery gains from H1 Quasimodo support at $1.1533 to H1 resistance from $1.1575 is perhaps in the offing.

Medium to long term, however, sellers are still in the driving seat.

Between $1.16 and $1.1575 on the H1, therefore, may be sufficient to welcome a bearish theme, targeting $1.15, a H1 level set within the upper boundary of daily Fibonacci support between $1.1420 and $1.1522, and arranged a touch above H4 support from $1.1495.

AUD/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Prime resistance at $0.7849-0.7599 remains a key upside target on the weekly scale, despite current trade on track to register strong losses.

Prime support demands attention at $0.6968-0.7242.

Trend studies on the weekly scale show we’ve been higher since early 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Resistance between $0.7621 and $0.7551, as you can see, has served sellers well—composed of a Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.7621, the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7551, as well as a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7585 and a 100% Fibonacci projection at $0.7551. Noted resistance is secured to the lower boundary of weekly prime resistance mentioned above at $0.7849-0.7599.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7379 is on the brink of having its level challenged. Follow-through downside, nonetheless, points to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from $0.7271.

The relative strength index (RSI) dipped a toe under the 50.00 centreline. Submerging the latter helps validate the bearish presence, notifying traders that average losses outweigh average gains.

H4 timeframe:

Following Wednesday’s rejection of the decision point at $0.7476-0.7461, sellers—influenced on broad USD muscle—took the wheel Thursday and tunnelled through the decision point at $0.7419-0.7407.

$0.7419-0.7407 is calling for a retest, with further selling perhaps drawing on Quasimodo support coming in from $0.7332.

H1 timeframe:

Thursday watched US hours snap below $0.74 and shake hands with neighbouring Quasimodo support at $0.7392. Subsequent action shows price reclaimed $0.74+ status.

Aided by the relative strength index (RSI) chalking up bullish divergence, resistance at $0.7420 is a visible upside target, followed by resistance from $0.7456. Note that $0.7420 is positioned a pip north of H4 supply at $0.7419-0.7407.

Observed Technical Levels:

Intraday action favours a pop to at least H1 resistance at $0.7420, though sellers could show prior to this base, given H4 supply at $0.7419-0.7407.

Longer term, chart studies indicate lower prices until crossing swords with the daily timeframe’s 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7379.

USD/JPY:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Mid-October had candle action embrace resistance from ¥114.38 and touch a fresh three-year peak of ¥114.70. Violating the noted resistance may excite long-term bulls and highlight a 1.272% Fibonacci projection from ¥116.09.

Capping upside attempts since May 2017, ¥114.38 is considered ‘significant’ resistance in this market; bearish interest sets the stage for bringing in support at ¥112.16.

In terms of trend, we’ve been advancing since the beginning of this year.

Daily timeframe:

The Fibonacci cluster, made up of two 1.272% Fibonacci projections at ¥114.63 and ¥114.61, set a handful of pips beneath a deep 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at ¥114.94, continues to command attention on the daily timeframe. The noted resistance area, along with weekly resistance highlighted above at ¥114.38, is clearly a headwind for the currency pair right now.

Supply-turned demand at ¥112.66-112.07 is set as the next downside target, shadowed by a decision point coming in from ¥111.18-111.79.

From the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator’s value exited overbought space and appears poised to retest 56.85 support—prior range resistance.

H4 timeframe:

The ¥113.28-113.55 decision point withstood another downside attempt Thursday, proving itself a notable area since late October.

Quasimodo resistance at ¥114.46 continues to attract attention, whereas sellers occupying control directs focus to support coming in at ¥112.63, a previous Quasimodo resistance level.

H1 timeframe:

Quasimodo support made an entrance at ¥113.59 going into the US session on Thursday which, assuming buyers maintain position, could pull the currency pair back to ¥114. Technicians will note that the aforesaid support is reinforced closely by the H4 timeframe’s decision point at ¥113.28-113.55.

Space beneath ¥113.59 has another Quasimodo support at ¥113.20 to target.

The relative strength index (RSI), as you can see, bottomed a touch off oversold levels and since rebounded to within reach of the 50.00 centreline.

Observed Technical Levels:

¥114 is likely a watched level, short term.

A ¥113.59 breach reveals H1 could adopt a bearish scene to Quasimodo support from ¥113.20.

GBP/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Fragile supply-turned demand at $1.3629-1.3456, and price closing under a double-top pattern’s ($1.4241) neckline at $1.3669, projects further downside in this market.

The double-top pattern’s profit objective—measured by taking the distance between the highest peak to the neckline and extending this value lower from the breakout point—sits around $1.3093.

Trend on the weekly timeframe, nonetheless, has displayed an upside bias since pandemic lows in early 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Support from $1.3602 abandoned position on Thursday in response to the Bank of England (BoE) surprising markets by holding rates at record lows, catching many off guard. Down 1.4 percent on the session, price left Thursday on the doorstep of support coming in at $1.3449.

The relative strength index (RSI) powered through 40.00 yesterday, casting light on oversold terrain

H4 timeframe:

Bids were effectively side lined on Thursday; a number of supports were overthrown, movement clearing space to guide the unit to Fibonacci support made up between $1.3479 and $1.3492.

Traders are urged to pencil in Quasimodo support at $1.3446 should sellers overwhelm the aforementioned Fibonacci zone.

H1 timeframe:

A closer reading of price action on the H1 timeframe, however, reveals the unit voyaged beneath $1.35 and touched a low of $1.3471, emphasising a bearish picture towards the H4 timeframe’s Quasimodo support at $1.3447.

Of technical note is the relative strength index (RSI) circling oversold and reaching as far south as 15.00.

Observed Technical Levels:                         

The bearish landscape on the higher timeframes, coupled with the H1 chart moving beneath $1.35, suggests H4 Fibonacci support between $1.3479 and $1.3492 could be on the verge of giving way.

With the above taken on board, a bearish scene may unfold under $1.35, putting forward H4 Quasimodo support at $1.3447 and daily support from $1.3449 as reasonable downside objectives.

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