Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Prime support at $1.1473-1.1583 remains core structure; buyers are showing life early week despite last week’s bearish outside reversal candle.

$1.1981-1.1848 supply is recognised as the next upside objective should buyers regain dominance, yet further underperformance shines the technical spotlight on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281.

Daily timeframe:

Technical framework on the daily chart features Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.1689, and trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.2254.

Lower on the curve, Fibonacci support between $1.1420 and $1.1522 is obvious. Noted support is fastened to the lower side of weekly support.

Sentiment has favoured downside since June, which is currently in line with the relative strength index (RSI) recently elbowing back under the 50.00 centreline from a top of 56.05. South of 50.00 shows average losses outweigh average gains, directing a possible test of oversold.  

H4 timeframe:

A closer reading of price action on the H4 chart reveals the currency pair powered through resistance at $1.1584, action highlighting a $1.1636-1.1620 decision point, joined by resistance at $1.1622.

The above follows Friday’s modest recovery from Quasimodo support coming in at $1.1541.

H1 timeframe:

Recent hours witnessed short-term flow charge above $1.16, throwing light on prime resistance at $1.1628-1.1619—sheltered beneath a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1631.

Of technical note is that the H1 area is glued to the lower side of the H4 decision point at $1.1636-1.1620.

Momentum studies, according to the relative strength index (RSI), shows the indicator’s value closing in on overbought territory. Bearish divergence within oversold would likely be a welcomed sight for interested sellers at the noted H1 resistances.

Observed Technical Levels:

Short-term interest is focussed on H1 prime resistance from $1.1628-1.1619, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1631, technical levels boasting a connection with the H4 decision point from $1.1636-1.1620.

Buy-stops filled north of $1.16 may help fuel offers from the aforementioned resistances—breakout orders along with protective stop-loss orders taken from those attempting to fade $1.16.

AUD/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Since departing from prime support from $0.6968-0.7242 at the end of September, AUD/USD bulls forged a fifth consecutive week in the green, bound for prime resistance at $0.7849-0.7599.

Trend studies on the weekly scale show we’ve been higher since early 2020. Consequently, the response from $0.6968-0.7242 might be the start of a dip-buying attempt to join the current uptrend (since early 2020), perhaps eventually overrunning $0.6968-0.7242 and challenging the yearly top at $0.8007.

Daily timeframe:

Resistance between $0.7621 and $0.7551—composed of a Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.7621, the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7556, as well as a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7585 and a 100% Fibonacci projection at $0.7551—made an entrance in recent candles.

Interestingly, noted resistance is secured to the lower boundary of weekly prime resistance mentioned above at $0.7849-0.7599. As a result, sellers could continue to defend $0.7621-0.7551 and perhaps drop in on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7379 and, with a little oomph, maybe the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from $0.7271.

The relative strength index (RSI) welcomed overbought territory last week, adding weight to current price resistance and highlighting indicator resistance at 74.80. However, with respect to trend on the daily scale, recent action probed fresh highs, helping to confirm the current upside bias.

H4 timeframe:

According to the H4 scale, price movement remains hovering around near-five-month highs of $0.7555.

Trendline support, taken from the low $0.7170, along with Quasimodo resistance-turned support at $0.7443 and prime support at $0.7397-0.7435, are areas of interest to the downside. Upstream shines light on Quasimodo resistance from $0.7599.

H1 timeframe:

$0.75, once again, served buyers well on Monday, a psychological floor delivering support on a number of occasions in recent trading.

With the $0.7548-0.7541 decision point engulfed in the second half of last week, the decision point at $0.7585-0.7567 is a reasonable upside target.

Failure to find acceptance at higher levels, a $0.75 break uncovers Quasimodo resistance-turned support from $0.7456. Note that a $0.75 break helps validate bearish intent from daily resistance.

Observed Technical Levels:

Scope to discover higher terrain remains on the weekly scale until reaching prime resistance at $0.7849-0.7599. Nevertheless, pasted to the lower side of this zone is active daily resistance at $0.7621-0.7551, which may be enough to persuade a bearish theme.

Against the backdrop of higher timeframes, H1 defending $0.75 could lead to price taking aim at the H1 decision point at $0.7585-0.7567 or H4 Quasimodo resistance from $0.7599, which represents the lower side of weekly prime resistance.

USD/JPY:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Mid-October had candle action embrace resistance from ¥114.38 and touch a fresh three-year peak of ¥114.70. Violating the noted resistance may excite long-term bulls and highlight a 1.272% Fibonacci projection from ¥116.09.

Capping upside attempts since May 2017, ¥114.38 is considered ‘significant’ resistance in this market; bearish interest sets the stage for bringing in support at ¥112.16.

In terms of trend, we’ve been advancing since the beginning of this year.

Daily timeframe:

The Fibonacci cluster, made up of two 1.272% Fibonacci projections at ¥114.63 and ¥114.61, set a handful of pips beneath a deep 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at ¥114.94, continues to command attention on the daily timeframe. The noted resistance area, along with weekly resistance highlighted above at ¥114.38, is clearly a headwind for the currency pair right now.

Supply-turned demand at ¥112.66-112.07 is set as the next downside target, shadowed by a decision point coming in from ¥111.18-111.79.

From the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator’s value exited overbought space and appears poised to retest 56.85 support this week—prior range resistance.

H4 timeframe:

In the shape of a shooting star candlestick formation, Monday pencilled in an intraday top a few pips south of Quasimodo resistance at ¥114.46. Subsequent downside manoeuvred the pair back to local trendline resistance-turned support, drawn from yearly tops at ¥114.70.

The ¥113.28-113.55 decision point commands attention should trendline support relinquish ground.

H1 timeframe:

Converging with the H4 timeframe’s trendline support, the H1 timeframe also reveals active local trendline support, etched from the low ¥113.26, sharing chart space with the psychological figure ¥114.

Neighbouring support is seen at ¥113.84, in the event a whipsaw through ¥114 materialises.

Technicians will also acknowledge the relative strength index (RSI) tests indicator trendline support, extended from the low 29.57.

Observed Technical Levels:

While the bigger picture indicates a healthy upside bias, resistance on both weekly and daily timeframes has interrupted flow since mid-October.

H1 working with local trendline support, etched from the low ¥113.26, and the psychological figure ¥114, in addition to H4 trendline support, echoes short-term interest may favour higher levels: H4 Quasimodo resistance at ¥114.46.

GBP/USD:

(Italics: previous analysis)

Weekly timeframe:

Dipping a toe south of supply-turned demand at $1.3629-1.3456 in late September, and closing under a double-top pattern’s ($1.4241) neckline at $1.3669, unshackles a potential bearish scenario, long term.  

The double-top pattern’s profit objective—measured by taking the distance between the highest peak to the neckline and extending this value lower from the breakout point—sits around $1.3093.

Trend on the weekly timeframe, nonetheless, has displayed an upside bias since pandemic lows in early 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Corroborating the weekly timeframe’s downside bias is price action on the daily timeframe acquiring acceptance at trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.4250. Sheltered beneath a 200-day simple moving average at $1.3848, additional deterioration has support from $1.3602 to target.

The relative strength index (RSI) shows weakening upside momentum, dropping beneath the 50.00 centreline. Cementing position below here possibly throws oversold space in the mix.

With reference to current trend, despite the weekly timeframe eyeing higher levels, sentiment is directed lower for now on the daily timeframe, shaped in the form of lower highs and lower lows from June 1^st top at $1.4250.

H4 timeframe:

Monday’s action left behind a somewhat muted tone, welcoming support from $1.3657. This follows last week’s one-sided decline from trendline support-turned resistance, drawn from the low $1.3415.

An absence of bullish interest from $1.3657 signals support at $1.3570 is next in the firing range, arranged a touch south of the daily timeframe’s support base at $1.3602.

H1 timeframe:

Confirmed by bullish divergence out of the relative strength index (RSI)—informing traders that momentum to the downside is slowing—short-term flow on the H1 staged a mild pullback from H4 support at $1.3657, though failed to reach $1.37 before withdrawing back to the noted H4 support.

Terrain below H4 support shines light $1.36 and Quasimodo support from $1.3602.

Observed Technical Levels:                      

Chart studies imply fading interest from H4 support at $1.3657. This is reinforced by the bigger picture eyeballing lower price levels.

A H4 close sub $1.3657 opens the door to further underperformance and, by extension, potential short-term selling opportunities. Downside targets rest at $1.36 (applied to the H1), which happens to be joined by H1 Quasimodo support at $1.3602 and also represents daily support, closely followed by H4 support from $1.3570.

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