June 23rd 2021: AUD/USD Tests Daily Resistance at $0.7563, Dovetailing with the 200-day SMA

June 23rd 2021: AUD/USD Tests Daily Resistance at $0.7563, Dovetailing with the 200-day SMA, FP Markets

Charts: Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Down 2.3 percent MTD, June on the ropes. Reclaiming May’s gains and also chipping into April’s upside, EUR/USD is touching gloves with familiar support at $1.1857-1.1352.

Upstream is focused on 2021 peaks at $1.2349; additional enthusiasm may welcome ascending resistance (prior support [$1.1641]).

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the $1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price breached major trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Technical framework unchanged from previous research.

Europe’s single currency overturned earlier losses against the greenback on Tuesday and finished the session eking out modest upside.

Quasimodo support at $1.1836 and the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1992 deserves notice. $1.2148-1.2092 supply entertains territory north of the SMA, while another Quasimodo support at $1.1688 is on the radar under $1.1836.

Underpinning gains, the RSI pencilled in hidden bullish divergence (commonly forms a trend continuation signal that suggests upside strength remains), together with the value exiting oversold terrain (bullish cue).

H4 timeframe:

Latest out of the H4 chart reveals buyers and sellers battling for position around resistance at $1.1937. Attention above the latter is on supply at $1.2006-1.1983, sharing space with resistance at $1.1990 and a neighbouring 38.2% Fib retracement value from $1.2007.

What’s also technically interesting is the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1992 intersects with the aforesaid supply area.

H1 timeframe:

For those who read Tuesday’s technical briefing you may recall the following (italics):

The above places H1 bulls in a favourable location, north of $1.19, with subsequent buying to perhaps pursue space north of H1 resistance at $1,924, targeting the $1.20 figure. Though do take into account this involves brushing aside H4 resistance at $1.1937.

Early US hours, bolstered amidst USD downside, witnessed EUR/USD scale above $1.19 resistance, as well as $1.1924 resistance and the 100-period simple moving average at $1.1919. $1.20 is overhead, a widely watched psychological level connected closely with supply at $1.1999-1.1991.

Momentum studies, according to the RSI, has the value within reach of registering overbought status. This follows the indicator holding off trend line support, taken from the low 8.62, mid-way through London hours.

Observed levels:

H4 resistance at $1.1937 on the brink of stepping aside—along with the daily timeframe exhibiting scope to approach the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1992, in addition to the H1 timeframe revealing space to shake hands with the $1.20 figure—EUR/USD bulls appear poised to run higher.

A $1.1924 support retest on the H1, therefore, could be a scenario that garners interest.

June 23rd 2021: AUD/USD Tests Daily Resistance at $0.7563, Dovetailing with the 200-day SMA, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, buyers and sellers have been squaring off south of trendline resistance (prior support – $0.4776 low) and supply from $0.8303-0.8082. That was, of course, until last week’s one-sided decline, movement throwing light on support at $0.7394. Additional downside pressure also brings light to demand at $0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply).

June is currently down by 2.2 percent.

Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [$1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking $0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

With supply-turned demand at $0.7453-0.7384 untested (aligns with a collection of Fib studies and monthly support at $0.7394), AUD/USD marginally gained on Tuesday, recording a second consecutive session in the green.

Interestingly, though, price concluded the session crossing swords with the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7552, collaborating closely with resistance at $0.7563.

From the RSI, the indicator exited oversold territory this week, which, as aired in recently analysis, is action some traders view as a bullish cue.

H4 timeframe:

$0.7485 support made an entrance at the beginning of the week, guiding the currency pair to daily resistance highlighted above at $0.7563, closely shadowed by H4 resistance at $0.7588 (yellow).

Upstream, resistance is seen between $0.7660 and $0.7635, consisting of Fibonacci retracement structure (blue).

H1 timeframe:

A closer reading of price action on the H1 scale concentrates attention on a possible harmonic bat pattern’s potential reversal zone (PRZ) between 0.7626 and 0.7600.

Price action traders will note that above the pattern’s PRZ we have resistance at 0.7646.

The chart reveals recent movement nudged the RSI value to within striking range of overbought space, in particular resistance from 72.21.

Observed levels:

Daily resistance at $0.7563 and the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7552, in addition to the H4 resistance area made up of the noted daily resistance and H4 resistance at $0.7588 (yellow), forms a reasonable barrier to be aware of.

Should the above give way, technical eyes will also be on the H1 timeframe’s harmonic bat pattern’s potential reversal zone (PRZ) between 0.7626 and 0.7600. Note the upper edge of this zone represents daily resistance.

Additional resistance to be mindful of is the H4 Fib resistance (blue) between $0.7660 and $0.7635, which intersects with H1 resistance from $0.7646.

June 23rd 2021: AUD/USD Tests Daily Resistance at $0.7563, Dovetailing with the 200-day SMA, FP Markets

DISCLAIMER:

The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • June 23rd 2021: AUD/USD Tests Daily Resistance at $0.7563, Dovetailing with the 200-day SMA, FP Markets
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