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Global Fundamental Analysis 28/03/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 28/03/2023, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks ended mixed following news First Citizens will acquire large pieces of Silicon Valley Bank. Treasury yields rose sharply and the dollar weakened as global banking fears waned. Oil prices rallied and gold prices slipped amid the improved sentiment.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% higher as gains by lithium and gold stocks helped offset losses among energy and financials.

US Market 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% after First Citizens agreed to buy much of Silicon Valley Bank, with the health of the banking sector remaining high on investors’ agenda. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped about 0.5%.  

First Citizens’ deal to buy large parts of Silicon Valley Bank lifted shares of U.S. regional banks, a group that has come under intensifying pressure following the SVB’s collapse more than two weeks ago. “It’s a bit of a relief rally after the selloff on Friday. It’s also the last week of the quarter, so I don’t think we’re going to see the same levels of volatility,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

Commodities

Meanwhile, gold futures declined, tallying back-to-back session losses as banking-system fears abated and yields on U.S. Treasury bonds climbed, robbing precious metals of some of the safe-haven luster that has helped to fuel a multiweek rally. April gold futures fell 1.5% to settle at $1,953.80 per ounce on Comex.

Gold has transformed into “a barometer for financial stress” over the past month, said Marios Hadjikyriacos, senior investment analyst at XM. Whether the precious metal continues to climb will depend on several factors, including how the financial system fares and whether the Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts that are being priced in by futures traders actually happen, he added.

Oil Futures

Oil futures ended at their highest in two weeks, building on last week’s bounce as banking sector worries eased, but prospects for lower weather-related demand led natural-gas prices to their lowest settlement in more than a month. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery advanced 5.1% to settle at $72.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

May Brent crude gained 4.2% to $78.12 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. April natural gas slid 5.8% to end at $2.088 per million British thermal units, the lowest front-month contract settlement since Feb. 21. “The crystal ball, which had been clouded by the banking crisis, is now showing a profit opportunity” for oil, said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners. “After the erratic selloff in mid-March, cooler heads have started to prevail as traders look at the dip in oil prices as a good entry point.”

Forex

European Markets

European stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with those from the banking sector going down sharply following Swiss lender Credit Suisse’s short-term debt crisis triggering a massive sell-off. Credit Suisse shares tanked after the bank’s biggest lender, Saudi National Bank, said it would not offer the Swiss lender more financial help.

Asian Markets

Earlier Monday, Chinese shares ended mixed as some questioned the sustainability of the country’s economic recovery. Focus will be on this week’s PMI releases, the first dataset for March, with investor views still split on how strong the rebound will be, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.4%. The Shenzhen Composite Index gained 0.1% and the ChiNext Price Index added 1.2%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 1.8% lower, dragged by Chinese tech companies after weak earnings, which raised some doubts about the sustainability of China’s economic recovery. The Hang Seng Tech Index declined 2.8%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.3%, led by gains in railway and real-estate stocks, as the recent turbulence in the global banking sector has made central banks more dovish.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 28/03/2023, FP Markets
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