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  5. Global Fundamental Analysis 25/10/2022

Global Fundamental Analysis 25/10/2022

Global Fundamental Analysis 25/10/2022, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks kicked off a packed earnings week with gains as markets cheered corporate earnings and the possibility of smaller rate increases from the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury ticked up to 4.25%. The WSJ Dollar Index advanced to 104.28, once again hampering gold futures. Oil prices ended a three-session streak of gains amid profit taking.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.5% higher, wiping out its losses of the previous week amid widespread gains. All 11 sectors finished higher, with materials, tech, utilities and health leading the way.

US Market 

U.S. stocks gained as investors focused on encouraging signs from corporate earnings and hoped for smaller interest-rate increases ahead from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.3%, to its highest level in six weeks. The S&P 500 advanced 1.2%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%, after starting the day in the red.

“Market participants are desperately looking for a Fed pause or pivot,” said Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research. Still, he cautioned that such hopes would likely be dashed by continuing high inflation and low unemployment, which would pressure the central bank to maintain its hawkish stance. “We think a Fed pause is a long way off,” Senyek said.

Commodities

Gold finished with a modest loss, following a wild ride in the final session of last week that saw prices for the precious metal briefly dip to their lowest in 2 1/2 years. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.1% to settle at $1,654.10 per ounce on Comex. Gold wasn’t on stable ground to begin the week, as the “bears have been able to pull the rope a little more on their side,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a market note.

“The big question which is very much influencing the price of the precious metal is if the [Federal Reserve] is going to slow down the pace of its interest rate hikes.” The market expects the central bank to increase interest rates by 0.75 percentage point during its next meeting – pushing the U.S. Dollar index higher, he said. “The strength of the U.S. Dollar index is keeping checks on the yellow metal’s price,” Aslam said.

Oil Futures

Oil futures settled lower, pressured by expectations for a decline in energy demand from China after a round of lackluster import data and the conclusion of the Communist Party’s national congress. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell nearly 0.6% to settle at $84.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude was down 0.3% to $93.26 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

“China’s zero-Covid approach looks set to continue until at least next spring,” said Harry Altham, energy analyst, EMEA & Asia for StoneX Group. Concerns are primarily centered around the composition of President Xi’s new Standing Committee, which commentators describe as being made up of ‘loyalists,’ he wrote. The lineup has fueled “speculation that tackling Covid and maintaining national security are being prioritized above economic considerations, which is depressing the oil demand outlook in the world’s second highest consuming nation,” he wrote.

Forex

Major currencies were mixed against the US dollar in European and US trade. The Euro rose from lows near US$0.9806 to highs near US$0.9889 and was near US$0.9870 at the US close. But the Aussie dollar eased from highs near US63.46 cents to lows near US62.73 cents and was near US63.10 cents at the US close. And the Japanese yen firmed from 149.44 yen per US dollar to JPY148.66 and was near JPY149.00 at the US close.

European Markets

European sharemarkets rose on Monday, with the continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index closing up by 1.2%, as investors looked ahead to a key interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) later this week. The S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI fell from 48.1 to a 23-month low of 47.1 in October (survey: 47.6). The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.6% as investors welcomed Rishi Sunak’s victory in Britain’s prime ministerial race.

Asian Markets

 Earlier Monday, Chinese shares ended lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below the widely watched 3000 level, as the country’s leadership reshuffle weighed on investor sentiment. Military-linked companies were among the gainers amid speculation that the conflict between China and Taiwan may escalate in the coming years. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.0 % , the Shenzhen Composite Index declined 1.8 % and the ChiNext Price Index was 2.4% lower.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slumped 6.4%, its largest one-day percentage drop since November 2008, fueled by a tech selloff after the conclusion of China’s party congress. The market meltdown also came after China’s better-than-expected third-quarter GDP data. “Markets might be also concerned that the surprisingly good activity data might reduce the need for easing the zero Covid strategy and introducing additional stimulus measures,” Nomura economists said. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.3%, led by gains in chip and shipping stocks, as hopes grew that the Fed will slow its pace of tightening.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 25/10/2022, FP Markets
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