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  5. Global Fundamental Analysis 25/07/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 25/07/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 25/07/2023, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks and Treasury yields rose as traders remained confident that the Federal Reserve will raise rates on Wednesday. The dollar strengthened modestly, sending gold to its lowest in a week. Oil settled at a three-month high on summer demand.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.1% lower amid weakness in mining stocks. The materials sector was the biggest overall drag. Energy stocks pared the overall losses amid higher oil prices.

US Market 

Stocks climbed to start the week, extending the Dow’s winning streak to its longest in six years, while a blowout weekend at the box office lifted cinema stocks and pointed to strength in the consumer economy. Movie mania, led by the “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” releases, drew more than $300 million in North American ticket sales Friday through Sunday, the latest sign U.S.

households are still primed to spend. Surprising economic strength, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive series of interest-rate hikes, has lifted the major indexes this year as more investors have shifted to bet against an imminent recession. The broad S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% — its 11th consecutive day of gains.  

The Fed is expected to lift rates by another quarter-percentage point on Wednesday and the European Central Bank is likely to match that a day later. Meanwhile, S&P Global’s U.S. preliminary purchasing managers index showed manufacturing activity is slowing in July less dramatically than in previous months. Services activity is continuing to grow, but at a reduced pace.

Commodities

Gold prices ended at their lowest in a week, pressured by strength in the U.S. dollar as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday. August gold futures fell 0.2% to settle at $1,962.20 an ounce on Comex. Gold futures were pressured by strength in the dollar after the release of S&P surveys showing the U.S. economy grew in July at the slowest pace in five months.

Oil Futures

U.S. and global benchmark oil prices marked their highest finish in three months, buoyed by what one analyst referred to as “unquenched thirst for summer oil” and bets for tighter global crude supplies later this year. West Texas Intermediate for September delivery rose 2.2% to settle at $78.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

That was the highest front-month finish since April 24, according to Dow Jones Market Data. September Brent, the global benchmark, also added 2.2% to settle at $82.74 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe — the highest since April 19.  “The unquenched thirst for summer oil created a snowball effect that has led to a multi-week rally” in oil prices, said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners.

Forex

European Markets

European stocks are subdued on Monday, with weak Eurozone business activity data and an inconclusive election result in Spain keeping investors nervous. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, which gauges activity in the manufacturing and services sector, fell to an eight-month low of 48.9 in July from 49.9 in June. French and German PMI data also came in weaker than expected, raising fears of a recession.

In the U.K., the S&P Global/CIPS composite Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a preliminary reading of 50.7, down from 52.8 in June. Investors also looked ahead to key central bank meetings and earnings from tech giants including Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet due this week for directional cues. While the German DAX Index has edged down by 0.1 percent, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index is down by 0.3 percent and the French CAC 40 Index is down by 0.5 percent.

In corporate news, Danish biotech company Bavarian Nordic has plummeted after saying that it was ending its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine program, following poor trial results. S4 Capital has also plunged after the digital advertising and marketing-services firm cut its annual revenue growth and core profit margin forecasts, citing challenging macroeconomic conditions and cautious clients. On the other hand, Swiss wealth manager Julius Baer has shown a substantial move to the upside after reporting strong earnings.

British online grocer Ocado has also jumped after settling a three-year intellectual property dispute with Norwegian robotics company AutoStore Holdings. Telecom company Vodafone has also surged after reporting better revenue growth in the first quarter and naming a new CFO. Alstom has also risen in Paris. The French rolling stock maker and RAILPOOL, a German rolling stock leasing firm, have signed a contract worth up to 260 million euros for 50 Traxx Universal multi-purpose locomotives.

Asian Markets

Earlier, in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index ended 1.2% higher, led by gains in electronics, steel and auto stocks, as the yen’s recent weakening raised hopes for earnings growth. Chinese stocks ended lower with market sentiment weighed by the country’s sluggish economic growth. The focus remains on the coming politburo meeting by the end of July, which is expected to set the policy tone for the second half.

Consumer brands and property developers led the session’s losses. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended 0.1% lower, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.4%, while the tech-heavy ChiNext Price Index slipped 0.75%.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 25/07/2023, FP Markets
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