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  5. Global Fundamental Analysis 08/11/2022

Global Fundamental Analysis 08/11/2022

Global Fundamental Analysis 08/11/2022, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks rose ahead of U.S. midterm elections Tuesday and Thursday’s inflation data. The yield on 10-year Treasurys gained to 4.22%, from 4.16% Friday. The WSJ Dollar Index fell 0.39% to 102.46. Oil prices ended lower as traders weighed the potential for changes to China’s Covid restrictions. And gold futures settled higher as the dollar softened.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark index closed 0.6% higher as strength in commodity stocks more than offset a retreat by the financial sector.

US Market 

U.S. stocks rose ahead of a crowded week of corporate earnings, inflation data and midterm elections that could see a shift to Republican control of one or both chambers of Congress. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.3%. The S&P 500 advanced 1%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.9%. Traders are focused on Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections and Thursday’s inflation data for October.  

Investors say they are watching for the possibility that election results could boost the stock market, especially if Republicans take the majority in the House of Representatives-a scenario that nonpartisan analysts are projecting. That would lead to a divided U.S. government, which some investors like because it reduces policy uncertainty.

However, any boost from the elections will likely be outweighed by interest-rate expectations, corporate results and economic data, investors and strategists say. “Market prices these days are a lot more governed by central bank expectations than by political expectations,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

Commodities

Gold futures scored a second consecutive session gain to finish at their highest price in nearly four weeks. December gold rose 0.2% to settle at $1,680.50 per ounce on Comex, with the yellow metal settling at its highest price for a most-active contract since Oct. 11, FactSet data show. Analysts at ICICI Bank said they expect gold prices to continue to trade between $1,600 and $1,700 in the near term, before the U.S. consumer price index report due out Thursday.

Oil Futures

Oil futures settled lower as traders weighed the potential for changes to China’s Covid-19 restrictions, which would have an impact on the nation’s energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell 0.9% to settle at $91.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.7%, ending at $97.92 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Forex

Major currencies were firmer against the US dollar in European and US trade. The Euro rose from lows near US$0.9920 to highs near US$1.0032 and was near US$1.0020 at the US close. The Aussie dollar rose from lows near US64.10 cents to highs near US64.90 cents and was near US64.75 cents at the US close. And the Japanese yen lifted from near 147.55 yen per US dollar to JPY146.10 and was near JPY146.60 at US close.

European Markets

European sharemarkets were mixed on Monday. Travel & leisure (+1.6%) and technology stocks led the gains. Shares in Ryanair rose 3.8% after posting a record profit. But shares in luxury retailers fell with LMVH down 1.5%. Also shares in Telecom Italia jumped 10.7% as top investor Vivendi would start talks with Italy’s new right-wing government on a new plan to create a national broadband company. The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 0.2% to 7-week highs. But the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.5% in response to a stronger pound sterling.

Asian Markets

In Asian trading, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average ended 1.2% higher, led by gains in electronics and trading companies, after U.S. jobs data on Friday have kept intact expectations for the Federal Reserve’s slower tightening. Chinese shares finished in positive territory, extending the upward swing sparked by reopening hopes last week even as Covid cases rise and officials reiterated their strict Covid policy stance. Market gains were led by energy and retail stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, the Shenzhen Composite Index increased 0.4%, and the ChiNext Price Index was 0.1% higher.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 08/11/2022, FP Markets
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