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Global Fundamental Analysis 03/04/2023

Global Fundamental Analysis 03/04/2023, FP Markets

Opening Call: The Australian share market is to open higher.

U.S. stocks posted solid gains to finish March and the first-quarter higher. Oil prices went higher for the session and the week amid growing demand optimism. Treasury yields fell to end a quarter marked by wide changes in the outlook for monetary policy. Gold fell on the session amid a stronger dollar.

Australian Market

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.8%, helping snap its worst streak of weekly losses since 2008. Growing investor expectations that the country’s central bank will hold interest rates next week propelled the ASX 200 to a 3.2% gain for the week and pared its monthly loss to 1.1%.

US Market 

Stocks looked set to end the quarter on a positive note, after a stormy three months in which markets have been whipsawed by strains in the banking system as well as shifting outlooks for inflation and interest rates. Government data showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, known as the core personal-consumption expenditures price index, slowed in February, lifting hopes the central bank could limit its campaign to curb inflation sooner than originally expected.

The S&P 500 ended the day up 1.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite increased 1.7%. Markets shook off the Thursday indictment of former President Donald Trump related to his role in hush money payments to a former porn star on the eve of the 2016 election. “Political headlines have had less and less impact,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. “We have learned to live with a much higher level of chaos than we were used to a few years ago.”

Commodities

Gold futures ended lower, but after topping $2,000 an ounce on an intraday basis a handful of times this month, prices scored gains for the month, as well as the quarter. The precious metal has benefited this quarter from expectations that Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes might soon come to an end, while a crisis of confidence in U.S. regional banks and some major European lenders helped bolster the yellow metal thanks to safe-haven flows. June gold futures declined 0.6% to settle at $1,986.20 per ounce on Comex. Prices, based on the most active contracts, ended 8.1% higher for the month and saw an 8.8% rise for the quarter.

Oil Futures

Oil futures settled at their highest in about three weeks, but U.S. prices posted a fifth consecutive monthly decline, pressured by concerns over a potential recession and decline in energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery tacked on nearly 1.8%, to settle at $75.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude gained 0.6% to end at $79.77 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

U.S. crude prices rallied by more than 9% this week, helped by supply problems out of Northern Iraq, U.S. dollar weakness, a hefty weekly drop in U.S. crude inventories and improved risk sentiment, along with signs of China’s economic recovery, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Forex

European Markets

The Switzerland stock market ended higher on Friday, extending gains to a fifth straight session, as worries about a global banking crisis continued to ease. Data showing a surge in Swiss retail sales, and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening next month, helped as well. The benchmark SMI ended with a gain of 74.03 points or 0.67% at 11,106.24.

Logitech rallied more than 2.5%. ABB, Givaudan and Swisscom gained about 1.8%. UBS Group, Credit Suisse, Sika and Partners Group ended higher by 1 to 1.4%. Richemont advanced nearly 1%. Among the stocks in the Swiss Mid Price Index, Schindler Ps and Schindler Holding both gained more than 2.5%.

Asian Markets

Earlier Friday, Chinese shares were pushed higher by upbeat March PMI data which signaled the country’s post-reopening recovery is well on track. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.4%. It finished the month 0.2% lower. The Shenzhen Composite Index gained 0.8% today and the ChiNext Price Index added 0.7%.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index rose nearly 0.5%, extending its rally to a third straight day as big tech shares continued rising. JD.com shares led the pack, as the Hang Seng Tech Index ended 0.8% higher. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average climbed 0.9%, led by gains in steel and electronics stocks, amid waning prospects for policy tightening by central banks. The index has gained 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023.

  • Global Fundamental Analysis 03/04/2023, FP Markets
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