Year-to-Date (YTD) Outperformance

Weekly timeframe –

The technical landscape of longer-term flow on the EUR/CHF paints an interesting picture at the moment, poised to end the week higher for an eighth successive weekly session. Interestingly, the currency pair is up +5.4% (YTD), following the record low printed in late 2023 at CHF0.9254. You will also note that price has reclaimed the majority of losses seen in 2023 (the pair has eked out losses for three straight years). Ultimately, thanks to the recent higher low and subsequent higher high, this pair is now in the early stages of an uptrend.

Helping to reaffirm the bullish trend, February observed a breach of trendline resistance, a descending line extended from as far back as the CHF1.0938 September 2021 high. USD/CHF buyers also found extra reason to bid the currency pair higher last week after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stepped up and surprised markets by cutting its overnight Policy Rate by 25bps, bringing the rate to 1.50%.

Technicals Suggest Further Upside Ahead

Limited resistance is seen overhead until a Fibonacci cluster positioned conveniently around parity (CHF1.0000), giving rise to further buying at current prices. While the near-eight-week advance has largely been one-sided, a correction is still likely to unfold before buyers attempt to find acceptance at higher price levels. This could lead to a rebound off nearby support at CHF0.9672.

Overall, this is a market showing promise, with an early uptrend brewing and free of overhead resistance until the CHF1.0000 neighbourhood.

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