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Economic indicators are datasets used to interpret and forecast trends. They provide insights into economic health and its direction. These indicators are categorised as:
As the US economy is the most widely watched, we’ll use it as an example throughout the article.
GDP represents the aggregate value of all goods and services produced within a nation's borders over a specified period, usually a quarter or year. It serves as a primary measure of the state of the economy and its growth. Real GDP accounts for inflation and is a preferred measure of growth among economists.
GDP growth indicates economic expansion, while a decline signals short-term contraction and possibly a recession. Changes in the growth rate can influence monetary and fiscal policy while also affecting consumer confidence and business investment. For instance, a declining economy may discourage consumer spending and business investment and prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates.
Employment data, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides insights into the health of the job market and broader economy. Unemployment rates are a lagging macroeconomic indicator that shows the percentage of the workforce currently jobless in the last four weeks ending in the reference week.
In the US, non-farm payrolls, which tally the number of jobs added to the economy, excluding the agricultural sector, are also a key indicator. When unemployment is low, and jobs are being added, it typically indicates economic growth and vice versa.
A strong labour market generally boosts consumer confidence and spending. An uptick in consumption can drive businesses to invest more to meet growing demand. It can also lead markets to expect higher corporate earnings, which can increase stock prices.
Conversely, a weak labour market can depress consumption and sentiment. It’s also worth noting that if the labour market is tight, it can lead to rising inflation and, thus, future restrictive monetary policy.
Inflation rates measure the overall level of prices for goods and services in the economy, which erodes purchasing power as it rises. Two primary gauges for this are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the average change in prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, and the Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating the cost change for producers.
Aside from employment data and growth, inflation is one of the key measures economists and policymakers want to keep in check. Rising inflation means less can be had for a single unit of currency, which squeezes consumption expenditures, reduces savings, and creates uncertainty. If inflation rises above the target of 2%, the Fed may hike interest rates to curb spending and borrowing.
Interest rates, set by central banks, are key levers for steering an economy. They determine the cost of borrowing and the return on savings, influencing consumption and investment.
When the US economy overheats, the Fed might raise rates to curb inflation and excess lending. In a downturn, it might lower rates to encourage borrowing, spending, and investment, helping to kickstart the economy.
For consumers, the effects of higher interest rates are primarily felt through increased housing costs (both homeowners and renters) and boosted savings rates. Businesses, meanwhile, feel the impact of reduced consumer spending, higher borrowing costs, and, if dealing in the global economy, a stronger currency (less profit for multinational corporations when repatriating funds). Stock markets also generally fall when interest rates rise.
The trade balance represents the difference between a country's exports and imports. A trade surplus occurs when exports exceed imports, suggesting strong international demand for a nation's products. Conversely, a trade deficit indicates that a country is buying more than it sells (imports > exports).
A trade surplus is generally a sign of favourable economic conditions. Export-oriented sectors grow, employing more people, and the nation accumulates foreign currency reserves, boosting investor confidence. On the other hand, a deficit may impact domestic industries that struggle to compete while making the economy more vulnerable to external events.
Production data provides a snapshot of a country's manufacturing and output capabilities. Industrial production measures the total output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting the health of the industrial sector and often leading consumption data.
Durable goods orders, meanwhile, track new orders for products lasting at least three years. High orders suggest businesses and consumers are confident in the economy, while dips can indicate caution.
Economic indicators are intricately interwoven—a shift in one can trigger a domino effect throughout the economy. A fall in GDP may impact consumer confidence, leading to reduced spending and higher unemployment. Similarly, changes in interest rates can reshape consumption and investment patterns, producing changes in other indicators. Knowledge of these nuances is key to successfully deciphering the economy at large.
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