Stronger-Than-Expected UK Inflation Data
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- April 17, 2024
YY Headline: 3.2% (Est: 3.1%; Prev: 3.4%) MM Headline: 0.6% (Est: 0.4%; Prev: 0.6%) YY Core: 4.2% (Est: 4.1%; Prev: 4.5%) MM Core: 0.6% (Est: 0.5%; Prev: 0.6%) The March UK CPI numbers hit the wires earlier this morning, revealing a slower-than-expected pace of disinflation across all four key metrics. While all four reports
READ MOREFollowing today’s mixed bag of employment and wages data, tomorrow’s attention is directed to the March UK CPI inflation release, scheduled to air at 7:00 am GMT+1. Estimates Suggest Further Disinflation Both headline and core (excludes food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) measures have surprised to the downside in the previous two releases and are expected
READ MORECanada’s March inflation is expected to rise to 2.9%, potentially impacting a June rate cut. US retail sales beat forecasts, keeping the not-so-soon rate cut story. USD is buoyed by the Chinese authorities, allowing a lower yuan. Good morning to all our readers! Yesterday was dominated by US retail sales data; retail sales rose 0.7%
READ MOREEarlier this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest UK earnings and employment data, and it was largely a mixed print overall. UK Unemployment Jumps to 4.2% UK unemployment climbed to 4.2% from December 2023 to February 2024, up from 3.9% in the three months to January 2024. This marks the largest
READ MOREIt was quite the week! Top of the bill last week, of course, was the stronger-than-expected US CPI inflation print, which, immediately following the release, underpinned the dollar and US Treasury yields, as well as pushed spot gold (XAU/USD) and US equity index futures southbound. Interestingly, a hawkish repricing in the Fed funds target rate
READ MORERates Remain on Hold The European Central Bank (ECB) claimed the spotlight in recent trading and held all three key benchmarks unchanged; the main refinancing operations rate, the marginal lending facility rate, and the deposit facility rate remain at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively. This did not raise too many eyebrows as both markets and
READ MOREData came in broadly higher than expected for the March US CPI inflation print. Higher-Than-Expected Reports on Three of the Four Major Prints Year-on-year headline CPI inflation for March rose +3.5%, up from +3.2% in February and a touch higher than economists’ estimates of +3.4%. Of note, this follows a rise of +3.4% in December
READ MOREMarket Pricing – Unlikely to Adjust Rates The Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to update policy later today at 2:45 pm GMT+1. Markets are currently pricing around a 16% probability of a 25bp cut at the upcoming meeting, with June pricing in -20bps of easing and July fully pricing in a -25bp cut. Recent
READ MOREMarket Consensus: Year on year – Headline: Estimate: 3.4%; Previous: 3.2% (Estimate Range: 3.5% High; 3.1% Low) Core: Estimate: 3.7%; Previous: 3.8% (Estimate Range: 3.8% High; 3.5% Low) Month on month – Headline: Estimate: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4% (Estimate Range: 0.5% High; 0.2% Low) Core: Estimate: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4% (Estimate Range: 0.4% High; 0.2% Low) Bloomberg
READ MORELast week ended with the US Employment Situation Report. Markets witnessed a monster beat for employment growth; the US economy added more than 300,000 jobs in the month of March versus a median estimate of 210,000 (prior data: small downward revision from +275,000 to +270,000). This marked the largest one-month gain in nearly 12 months.
READ MOREDollar Index Slammed Lower on Powell’s Comments Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently made the airwaves, delivering remarks on the economic outlook at Stanford Business School. Key Takeaways from the Speech: The Fed Chief does not envisage easing policy until there is more confidence regarding the inflation picture but still believes it will be ‘appropriate’ to
READ MOREECB Dovish Stance Recently, the ECB adopted more of a dovish stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the eurozone’s economy is in a disinflationary process and added that inflation is ‘making good progress’. Lagarde added that they are confident but ‘not sufficiently confident’ and commented that additional data is needed; more will be known
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