Charts: Trading View
(Italics: Previous Analysis)
Primary Trend: bearish since early 2021
In conjunction with a clear primary bear trend, longer-term technical studies demonstrate scope to navigate deeper waters. Following weekly price rejecting Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.0778, and daily price engulfing $1.0638 support (now resistance), 2nd January low at $1.0340 (2017), along with daily Quasimodo support at $1.0377, deliver reasonable downside objectives.
A similar picture is visible on the lower timeframes. H1 price has cemented position south of $1.05 and is poised to shake hands with $1.04, while H4 crossed below $1.0483 support (now resistance) and has H4 Quasimodo support to target at $1.0351 (as well as H4 trendline resistance-turned support [taken from the high $1.1185]).
In light of the above analysis, a pullback in this market could trigger a sell-on-rally scene from between $1.05 on the H1 and H4 resistance at $1.0483.
Primary Trend: bearish since early 2021 (decisive downside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2011)
Following the weekly timeframe’s textbook bearish engulfing candle last week, price action on the weekly timeframe is looking at support between $0.6632 and $0.6764, comprised a 100% Fibonacci projection, a price support, and a 50% retracement. On the daily timeframe, Quasimodo support from $0.6901 calls for attention.
Lower on the curve, $0.69 is in view on the H1 scale, joined closely by H4 Quasimodo support from $0.6913. Overhead, the widely watched $0.70 figure is seen, which happens to share chart space with H4 Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.6990.
Consequently, any upside attempt is likely to be seen as a sell-on-rally scenario. A retest of $0.70, therefore, may be interesting.
Primary Trend: bullish since early 2021 (upside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2012)
28th January high (2002) at ¥135.16 made an entrance on the weekly timeframe, welcoming sellers. Weekly support is not visible until ¥125.54, though a daily Quasimodo resistance-turned support is seen at ¥133.45, followed by a supply-turned demand area at ¥131.93-131.10. The daily chart’s relative strength index (RSI) is also on the verge of chalking up early bearish divergence within overbought space.
With the bigger picture displaying scope to connect with ¥133.45 support, and H1 action dipping under trendline support, taken from the low ¥127.63, a push below ¥134 could be seen to target ¥133ish.
Primary Trend: bearish since February 2021 (decisive downside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2008)
Thanks to a rather dismal start on Monday—GBP/USD down 1.2 per cent—the currency pair is crossing swords with Quasimodo support at $1.2164 on the weekly chart. Territory below here shines the technical light on daily support coming in from $1.2018.
As a result of recent downside, the H4 head and shoulders top pattern’s profit objective at $1.2221 was hit, and a subsequent drop witnessed the unit engulf H4 Quasimodo support at $1.2186 to expose 17th May low at $1.2075. In terms of where we are on the H1 timeframe, price is comfortable under $1.22, with $1.21 eyed, followed by the H4 $1.2075 low.
If the pair maintains position beneath $1.22, this is bad news for weekly Quasimodo support at $1.2164 and will likely see short-term flow take aim at $1.21.
Primary Trend: bearish since November 2021
It has not been a friendly couple of days for the major cryptocurrency, plummeting 11 per cent on Monday.
Technically, BTC/USD ruptured the lower edge of a pennant pattern, drawn from $30,091 and $31,418 and engulfed support at $28,849 (which is now a resistance level). This, as you can see, appears to have cleared the river south to $20,000 support, which if a break comes to pass here could throw light on the pennant’s profit objective at $15,523. Finally, after failing to find acceptance north of the 50.00 centreline on the relative strength index (RSI), the indicator’s value entered oversold territory yesterday.
Ultimately, then, this remains a sellers’ market for the time being, targeting $20,000, with the possibility of a dip to the $15,000 region.
Early Primary Trend: bearish since March 2022
In line with the current bearish trend, the price of gold stepped below its 200-day simple moving average at $1,842 per ounce on Monday and placed a bold question mark on the harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) between $1,815 per ounce and $1,843 per ounce. Should this zone cede ground, bearish follow-through could be seen towards Quasimodo support from $1,762 per ounce. Supporting the bearish picture is the relative strength index (RSI) rejecting the lower side of the 50.00 centreline: negative momentum.
In the event buyers regain consciousness, however, upside price targets are at $1,896 per ounce (38.2% Fibonacci retracement derived from legs A-D of the current harmonic pattern) and a $1,959-1,974 per ounce resistance zone.
Oil (West Texas Intermediate [WTI]):
Primary Trend: bullish since April 2020
Longer term, aside from a mid-March dip, buyers have been in the driving seat. April through May saw the formation of a double-bottom pattern on the daily timeframe off support at $95.00 per barrel. The neckline at $116.61 per barrel was breached at the end of May, technically underpinning the market until its profit objective at $139.97 per barrel. That is, of course, if we’re able to overthrow $129.42 per barrel: 8th March high.
Against the backdrop of daily flow, the H1 timeframe is seen working with Quasimodo support at $117.63 and Quasimodo resistance at $122.29 per barrel. We can also see a rising wedge forming, drawn from $98.17 and $115.53 per barrel.
Overall, this remains a bullish market, informing traders that a break of $122.29 per barrel could be in the offing to potentially test the rising wedge upper limit on the H1.
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