Charts: Trading View
(Italics: Previous Analysis)
Primary Trend: bearish since early 2021
Hopes of rebounding from support at $1.0638 are swiftly slipping away on the daily timeframe, leaving the ascending support-turned resistance unchallenged, drawn from the low $1.0340. In line with the primary bear trend, sellers are responding from weekly Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.0778, perhaps eyeing as far south as 2nd January low at $1.0340 (2017).
H4 resistance at $1.0758, coupled with H1 resistance at $1.0762 (along with a 100% Fibonacci projection at $1.0766 and a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.0773), served well as resistance on Thursday. With H1 and H4 now on the doorstep of Quasimodo resistance-turned support at $1.0631 and supply-turned demand at $1.0655-1.0632, respectively, a break through this area not only shines the technical spotlight on $1.06, it threatens a break of the current daily support.
As a result, this remains a sellers’ market for the time being, with short-term hands likely to take aim at $1.06 on the back of a $1.0631 breach.
Primary Trend: bearish since early 2021 (decisive downside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2011)
In light of the longer-term trend, and three-week pullback on the weekly timeframe, this week is on track to conclude in the shape of a bearish engulfing candlestick formation on the weekly timeframe. Weekly support structure remains between $0.6632 and $0.6764, comprised a 100% Fibonacci projection, a price support, and a 50% retracement. On the daily timeframe, sellers responded to the lower side of the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7253. Quasimodo support from $0.6901 now calls for attention on the daily scale.
The picture out of the lower timeframes displays a H4 head and shoulders top pattern (left shoulder: $0.7230; head: $0.7283; right shoulder: $0.7247), which, as you can see, had its neckline punctured on Thursday (drawn from the low $0.7141). The pattern’s profit objective resides at $0.7029. From the H1 timeframe, resistance was tested in recent hours at $0.7126 with price on the verge of greeting $0.71. Interestingly, under here, Quasimodo support at $0.7056 is visible just north of the H4 pattern profit objective.
In observance of the above analysis, sellers are clearly at the wheel for now, threatening to potentially engulf $0.71 on the H1 scale and approach $0.7056 H1 support and the H4 pattern profit objective sitting at $0.7029.
Primary Trend: bullish since early 2021 (upside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2012)
USD/JPY remains an unstoppable force, up 2.5 per cent week to date and on the verge of crossing swords with ¥135.16: 28th January high (2002) on the weekly chart. And according to the daily timeframe’s technical landscape, after dethroning Quasimodo resistance at ¥133.45 and retesting the level as support on Thursday, limited resistance is visible until ¥135.16. The fact that the daily chart’s relative strength index (RSI) entered overbought space is unlikely to deter buyers at this point.
With the bigger picture displaying scope to connect with ¥135.16, any selling is likely to be met with dominant dip buying. Consequently, H1 price reclaiming ¥134+ status in recent trading could be viewed as a bullish sign to take aim at ¥135.
Primary Trend: bearish since February 2021 (decisive downside bias also evident on the monthly scale since 2008)
It’s been a rather monotonous week thus far. Week-to-date, sterling is higher by a paltry 0.2 per cent against its US counterpart.
As evident from the daily timeframe, price action is now within reach of trendline resistance (etched from the high $1.3639), sheltered south of a daily Quasimodo support-turned resistance from $1.2762 which is also placed nearby weekly resistance at $1.2719. Notably, the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart continues to test the lower side of its 50.00 centreline, echoing resistance and supportive of a bearish landscape right now.
With buyers unable to gain enough impetus off H4 support at $1.2475 to retest H4 resistance between $1.2650 and $1.2614, the pendulum is swinging in favour of sellers right now. This, in conjunction with the higher timeframes demonstrating a bearish picture, could send H1 through $1.25 and re-open the risk of a return to $1.24.
Primary Trend: bearish since November 2021
In recent days BTC/USD ruptured the lower edge of a daily pennant pattern, drawn from $30,091 and $31,418. This helps confirm the primary bearish trend and places a bold question mark on daily support at $28,849.
In view of a somewhat lacklustre week, those who read Thursday’s technical briefing may recall the following:
The [pennant] pattern is generally viewed as a continuation formation, therefore a dominant breakout lower could spell the end for $28,849. As underlined in recent writing, overthrowing this level would be disturbing for many buyers at this point as the next obvious area of support resides around $20,000. Adding to the bearish picture, the relative strength index (RSI) is rejecting the lower side of the 50.00 centreline (negative momentum).
Support on the H1 timeframe at $29,358 has proved an effective floor, withstanding several downside attempts. However, recovery from the level is visibly thinning: each time price tests the level, the crypto fails to form a meaningful high. This sets the stage for a bearish scene and potential move for H1 support at $28,694, arranged just beneath the daily support level underlined above.
Early Primary Trend: bearish since March 2022
The daily timeframe’s technical view has remained pretty much unchanged since mid-May:
Price is seen engaging with a harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) on the daily timeframe between $1,815 and $1,843, aided by the 200-day simple moving average at $1,842. Should the relative strength index (RSI) break above the 50.00 centreline (positive momentum) this would add weight to further buying (average gains exceeding average losses). Upside price targets are at $1,896 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement derived from legs A-D of the current harmonic pattern) and a $1,959-1,974 resistance zone.
Across the page on the H1 timeframe, chart structure offers resistance at $1,856, a level working closely with a Quasimodo resistance at $1,855, and support from $1,836. Also of technical relevance is Fibonacci support between $1,828 and $1,831.
Where we go from here on gold is difficult to estimate. On the one hand, we have an early primary bear trend, yet on the other hand, daily price continues to attempt to find grip out of the harmonic Gartley pattern’s PRZ. Thus, traders will likely remain monitoring noted H1 levels; interestingly, H1 support mentioned above at $1,836 merges closely with the 200-day simple moving average.
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