EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [0.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, though did manage to squeeze out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, on the other hand, is currently tunnelling back into the said demand, overlooking April’s candlestick signal.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
After eclipsing April 15 high at 1.0990, a move that missed the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1029 by a hair, EUR/USD downside grew Wednesday, testing lows at 1.0782.
This shines the spotlight on the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 as possible support, though a break here would expose demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Following the retest at the underside of supply from 1.0906/1.0878, formed by way of a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern, this led price through support at 1.0821 yesterday and drew in nearby trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147).
The pair is striving to regain some lost ground off the said trendline, though 1.0821 is currently capping upside attempts, unearthing the potential of further selling towards trendline support coming in from 1.0635.
H1 timeframe:
Aired as a possibility in recent analysis, 1.0850 held as resistance and took a run at 1.08 on Wednesday. Technicians will note this formed a supply zone at 1.0847/1.0832.
Recent downside brings supply-turned demand at 1.0760-1.0775 to light, placed a touch ahead of the 1.0750 base.
The RSI momentum indicator remains capped under 44.00, off a trough around 20.00.
Structures of Interest:
Analytical structure highlights the H1 supply-turned demand at 1.0760-1.0775 as a possible reversal zone today. The area comes together with H4 trendline support (1.0635), sited just north of the 1.0750 level on the H1 and also joins closely with the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 on the daily timeframe.
As a result, should we dive today, between 1.0745 and 1.0775 may see buyers make an attempt at a recovery.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Closing a touch off worst levels, price action continues to languish beneath supply from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised this area comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642.
April 21 low at 0.6253 is visible as the next possible support band on this chart; breaking lower reveals demand at 0.5926/0.6062 may come under fire.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe.
Supply-turned demand at 0.6432/0.6462, as you can see, has so far withstood upside attempts. Sellers in this market likely have eyeballs on a break of demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Overall, the noted harmonic pattern is still in motion and remains valid until breaking the X point at 0.6684.
H1 timeframe:
Since the beginning of the week, H1 price has been condensing between 0.6377/0.6433 in the form of an ascending channel. A pickup in USD demand weighed on AUD/USD Wednesday, sending action beneath channel support towards 0.64, albeit after a retest at the underside of 0.6450/the 100-period simple moving average at 0.6434.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
Intraday trade has price testing 0.64, with a break unmasking nearby demand at 0.6360/0.6380, an area that held price higher at the beginning of the month. It is essentially the same zone as the current H4 demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
With room for H4 price to nudge lower, a whipsaw through 0.64 into H1 demand at 0.6360/0.6380 could be in the offing. This may be viewed as a buy signal upon forming a H1 close back above 0.64.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May, on the other hand, trades lower by 1.00%.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Scratching in its fourth successive daily loss Wednesday, USD/JPY dug in and burrowed further into the walls of demand from 105.70/106.66.
Should current demand eventually abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 perhaps making a show.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
A bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 took hold after having its lower boundary taken in recent weeks.
Wednesday took April 29 low at 106.35, leaving buyers defenceless until reaching demand at 105.75/105.17, an area sited just above the bearish pennant’s take-profit target. Traditionally, take-profit targets out of bearish pennant patterns are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding the value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
What’s also interesting from a technical viewpoint is a possible AB=CD bullish pattern forming around the top edge of the current demand.
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY is currently enjoying some much-needed respite off 106, though for how long is difficult to forecast.
We could see recovery towards the point at which two H1 trendline resistances merge (yellow – 107.49/106.60); a move this far north could also see price stumble into resistance from 106.50.
Yet, under 106 demand at 104.65/105.20 is situated as the next support target.
Structures of Interest:
The response out of daily demand at 105.70/106.66 echoes a fragile tone, therefore 100.68/101.85 could be brought to light in the near future.
H4 price shows scope to demand at 105.75/105.17, followed by the bearish pennant take-profit target at 104.89.
H1 flow holds 106, bidding to regain some lost ground and perhaps cross paths with trendline resistance around 106.40. This base, together with 106.50, will likely interest sellers if we reach this far north today.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play in early May. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Upside momentum recently diminished as the pair crossed paths with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2646, a value that boasts a close connection to a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799.
Extended loss was observed Wednesday, wiping nearly 100 pips and lining up demand at 1.2212/1.2075 as a possible target today.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Resistance at 1.2624 has contained upside since mid-March.
Demand at 1.2399/1.2453 entered play in recent trade, though lacked any real oomph, leading to price action bringing in demand from 1.2297/1.2350 yesterday, together with trendline support (1.2163).
Technicians will also note a large demand is presented between 1.2147/1.2257.
H1 timeframe:
Sterling found itself compressing within two converging trendlines on the H1 timeframe in recent trade, forming a rising wedge pattern (1.2405/1.2475). London hours Wednesday had price action firmly break the lower boundary of the said pattern, using the underside of 1.2450 as resistance.
Price shattered 1.24 and also the small demand at 1.2379/1.2393 sited under it. Price, however, swiftly turned off lows at 1.2358 and retested the aforementioned demand as supply, before heading for the 1.2350 neighbourhood.
1.23 is seen as the next support target on this timeframe.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price exhibits scope to approach 1.2235 (the top edge of support); daily price also suggests the possibility of a move to 1.2212 (the top edge of demand).
H4 action has the potential to hamper downside out of demand at 1.2297/1.2350/trendline support. H1 flow, nevertheless, has eyes for 1.23.
Technically, the current H4 demand is on precarious ground as sellers, overall, appear to be in the driving seat. Intraday bearish scenarios, therefore, could be worth exploring.
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