EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (intersects with a long-term trendline resistance [0.6038]) and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912, though did manage to squeeze out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, viewed as a bullish reversal signal. May, on the other hand, is currently tunnelling back into the said demand.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Following Friday eclipsing April 15 high at 1.0990, a move that missed the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1031 by a hair, EUR/USD retreated further Tuesday.
This positions the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 back in the frame, with a break here underscoring demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
After toppling supply-turned demand at 1.0906/1.0878, EUR/USD once again found itself on the back foot yesterday.
Candlestick traders will note price action retested the underside of 1.0906/1.0878 and produced what appears to be a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern. Ongoing downside from this angle shifts focus to a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147).
H1 timeframe:
Intraday movement found thin air above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0914 on Tuesday and proceeded to derail orders at 1.09 and trend line support (1.0727). The pair remains on precarious ground as 1.0850 is seen capping upside, threatening the possibility of a drop to 1.08.
To the upside, nonetheless, traders may want to keep an eye on trendline resistance (1.1018).
Structures of Interest:
Taking into account where EUR/USD is positioned on each timeframe, 1.0850 may hold as resistance today and see price make a run for at least 1.08. Notably, 1.08 also happens to coincide closely with the current H4 trendline support.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply from 0.6618/0.6544 remains a dominant feature in this market. It should also be emphasised this area comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642.
Monday produced a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern off lows at 0.6372, regarded as a bullish reversal signal. Conversely, Tuesday came back with a shooting star candlestick pattern, a bearish reversal signal.
April 21 low at 0.6253 is seen as the next possible support band on this chart; breaking lower shows demand at 0.5926/0.6062 may come under attack.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe.
Supply-turned demand at 0.6432/0.6462, as you can see, has so far withstood upside attempts. Sellers in this market likely have eyeballs on a break of demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Overall, the noted harmonic pattern is still in motion and remains valid until breaking the X point at 0.6684.
H1 timeframe:
Since the beginning of the week, H1 price has been condensing between 0.6377/0.6433 in the form of an ascending channel. After modestly whipsawing through the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6462 (and channel resistance), the pair came within touching distance of demand-turned supply at 0.6478/0.6490 before turning lower.
As of current price, we can see upside slackened in recent trade, running through orders at 0.6450 and tackling channel support, consequently shining the headlights on 0.64 as a possible target.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
Against the backdrop of longer-term activity, we’re holding off a H4 demand-turned supply area at 0.6432/0.6462 and recently tunnelled through H1 channel support. Intraday selling, therefore, may be an option for some traders, with 0.64 sited as the next support, followed by the top edge of H4 demand at 0.6384.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Although chalking up its third successive daily loss Tuesday, USD/JPY continues to circle the upper boundary of demand from 105.70/106.66
Should the demand eventually abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 perhaps making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
A bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 took hold after having its lower boundary taken in recent weeks. Despite a modest recovery on Thursday last week, downside remains the favoured route, according to chart studies.
If we take April 29 low at 106.35, buyers will likely be defenceless until reaching demand at 105.75/105.17, an area sited just above the bearish pennant’s take-profit target. Traditionally, take-profit targets out of bearish pennant patterns are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding the value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
H1 timeframe:
London hours had price action whipsaw through the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 106.77 and cross paths with trendline resistance (107.49), before diving to 106.50 into the US session. Despite an earnest attempt at recovery from here, price is struggling to overcome trendline support-turned resistance (106.35).
Structures of Interest:
As stated in Monday’s analysis, price action on the monthly timeframe could essentially pop either way. The response out of daily demand at 105.70/106.66, however, echoes a fragile tone, therefore 100.68/101.85 could be brought to light in the near future.
H4 price shows scope to navigate lower ground, possibly voyaging to demand at 105.75/105.17 over the coming weeks, followed by the bearish pennant take-profit target at 104.89.
H1 flow is also threatening a move beyond 106.50, throwing a light on 106 as a possible support target for intraday bearish scenarios.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play in early May. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Upside momentum recently diminished as the pair crossed paths with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2644, a value that boasts a close connection to a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799.
The week so far has been tepid; further selling, however, could lead to demand at 1.2212/1.2075 entering play, whereas moves higher may whipsaw to supply at 1.3021/1.2844.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Resistance at 1.2624 has contained upside since mid-March.
Demand at 1.2399/1.2453 entered play in recent trade. Despite a lack of enthusiasm from buyers, the demand is holding firm. Demand failure could see another layer of demand enter sight at 1.2297/1.2350. Resistance, however, is seen reasonably close by at 1.2520.
H1 timeframe:
Sterling has found itself compressing within two converging trendlines on the H1 timeframe, forming what appears to be a rising wedge pattern (1.2405/1.2475). According to the structure of the noted formation, we could squeeze higher until reaching the 1.25 handle, possibly even pulling in H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511. In fact, H1 supply is positioned to welcome a fakeout (run buy stops above the round number) through 1.25 for a move lower.
1.24 also marks possible support on this timeframe, with a break unmasking demand at 1.2379/1.2393. Similar to what happened on April 29 (red arrow), this demand could also welcome a fakeout scenario through 1.24.
Structures of Interest:
The daily timeframe indicates lower levels could be in the offing. H4 demand at 1.2399/1.2453 also breathes a fragile tone, while H1 action is in the process of forming a rising wedge, with the possibility of reaching H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2511 before stepping lower.
A break beneath the lower boundary of the H1 rising wedge could signify we’re heading for 1.24.
Continued bidding, though, will likely draw eyes to the current H1 supply for possible shorting opportunities.
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