EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
April, as you can see, has spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
After a period of reluctance (some would say bearish intent due to back-to-back shooting star candlestick patterns), EUR/USD continued to extend recovery gains off the 78.6% Fib level at 1.0745 Thursday.
The pair is seen closing in on the April 15 high at 1.0990, with a break unmasking the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 1.1035.
H4 timeframe:
Heading into the US session Thursday, the euro dipped to lows at 1.0833 vs. the greenback and retested a trendline resistance-turned support (1.1147). This kept the single currency on the winning side of the table, powering towards an area of stacked supply between 1.1057/1.1013 and 1.1044/1.0966, which aligns with a trendline support-turned resistance (1.0635) and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0987.
H1 timeframe:
The US dollar index tumbled Thursday, visiting lows at 98.81, ultimately lifting the single currency higher.
As we begin to enter into Asia Pac hours, we can see intraday action engaging with the 1.0950 neighbourhood, threatening the possibility of a rally towards supply at 1.0992/1.0980 and the widely watched 1.10 round number.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price, in the event we continue elbowing higher, will likely welcome the 200-day simple moving average into the mix at 1.1035.
1.1035 sits within the upper boundary of H4 supply at 1.1057/1.1013, nearby a trendline resistance.
1.1035 also implies we may witness a fakeout above the 1.10 figure on the H1 timeframe, filling buy stops. Sellers would have stops filled in this case, with breakout buyers also trapped should we reject 1.1035 (a bull trap).
Another scenario could have the current H4 trendline resistance cap upside, having seen the line converge with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0987.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
The recovery move, alongside April’s advance, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Following a dip to lows at 0.6253 on April 21, AUD/USD has since regained a strong footing, chalking up six successive daily candles and carrying price into the walls of supply from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised that this area comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642.
Thursday, as you can see, fashioned a bearish rotation candle from the current supply, snapping the six-day winning streak.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, continues to remain the focal point on the H4 timeframe. In recent sessions, though, we have seen a supply zone at 0.6540/0.6464 taken out, suggesting the possibility that sellers may lack enthusiasm.
Despite the above, the said harmonic pattern, technically, remains valid until breaking the X point at 0.6684. Additionally, we have recently entered and responded from the parapets of daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544. A break of H4 demand at 0.6432/0.6462, therefore, would be considered a promising sign for sellers.
H1 timeframe:
Stacked supply between 0.6612/0.6543, although price action unseated the 0.6550 level, forced the pair to lower ground Thursday, toppling trendline support (0.6282) and crossing paths with 0.65.
The 100-period simple moving average (SMA) is also seen nearing the said psychological base, with a small demand area located around 0.6478/0.6490. Breaking the said areas highlights supply-turned demand at 0.6461/0.6435, together with the 0.64 level.
Structures of Interest:
As stated in recent analysis, monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
The engulfed H4 supply at 0.6540/0.6464 has placed a question mark on the current H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, though daily supply at 0.6618/0.6544 could save the day. What’s more, we also have stacked supply recently making its debut on the H1 timeframe at 0.6612/0.6543.
Sellers are likely looking for 0.65 to give way to confirm further downside and possibly pyramid any short positions out of 0.6612/0.6543.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April has been pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand from 105.70/106.66 received price action on Tuesday after consolidating south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.28 since mid-April. Thursday, as you can see, staged an impressive comeback from the aforesaid base, snapping a six-day losing streak.
Should the said demand eventually abandon its position, we can look forward to demand plotted at 100.68/101.85 perhaps making an appearance.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The week has witnessed a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07 take hold after having its lower boundary taken out at the beginning of the week. Traditionally, take-profit targets are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point (black arrows – 104.89).
Yet, in recent sessions, the pair recovered strongly and is nearing the lower limit of the said pennant formation. This could offer traders a second chance to enter short the pattern should we retest the lower boundary.
H1 timeframe:
The return of buyers yesterday propelled the pair through a number of key technical areas on the H1 timeframe, including the 107 level and a demand-turned supply area at 106.99/107.16.
With highs seen at 107.49, clearing tops at 107.33 (yellow), the retest at 106.99/107.16 could be of interest today, particularly as the area fuses with a local trendline support and boasts a reasonably clear path north towards supply at 107.67/107.56.
Structures of Interest:
The response out of daily demand at 105.70/106.66, coupled with H4 price showing scope to approach the underside of its bearish pennant pattern, could have H1 candles advance from 106.99/107.16 today, with H1 supply at 107.67/107.56 in sight as a logical upside target.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play as we close out the month of April. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Sterling retained a strong underlying bid yesterday, led by a waning buck. Momentum, however, could diminish into the week’s close as the pair marched towards a demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns closely with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2645.
Also technically appealing is the possibility of forming an ABCD bearish pattern (orange) that completes around 1.2729.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2622/1.2517 had its limits tested once again on Thursday, leading to another breach to highs at 1.2642. We don’t really see much in the way of supply above the current zone; the next point of interest is made up of Fib studies, comprised of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.2801 and a 78.6% Fib level at 1.2809.
H1 timeframe:
Despite a nudge to 1.2642 that missed supply at 1.2691/1.2648 by a hair, we are establishing a position beneath 1.26 on the H1 timeframe. This could see the candles address the recently broken supply zone at 1.2526/1.2511, perhaps whipsawing to 1.25. In addition to this, the RSI indicator is seen exiting overbought territory from peaks at 80.00.
Structures of Interest:
As traders digest the ravenous advance through 1.26 and sellers currently defending the said level as resistance, as well as daily price coming within a few pips of testing demand-turned supply on the daily timeframe at 1.2649/1.2799, there’s a chance we could journey to H1 supply-turned demand at 1.2526/1.2511 today.
On the other hand, retaking 1.26 to the upside and bringing in H1 supply at 1.2691/1.2648, along with the lower edge of the daily zone at 1.2649/1.2799 and possibly completing the daily ABCD correction, could also see strong selling unfold.
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