EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
In the early stages of March, price manoeuvred EUR/USD into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. Leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unopposed, the unit reversed gains and burrowed into demand at 1.0488/1.0912. Recent recovery, however, reclaimed the month’s losses, with the monthly candle currently registering unchanged, in the shape of a long-legged doji indecision candle.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply pencilled in at 1.0925/1.0864 surrendered yesterday, following a pivotal run to highs at 1.1058. With the RSI indicator making headway above 50.00, price closed a touch off best levels south of a supply zone parked at 1.1120/1.1076, intersecting with a 200-day SMA value, currently circulating around the 1.1083 neighbourhood.
H4 timeframe:
In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims in the US was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series, according to the Department of Labour.
USD downside elevated euro demand to an interesting area of demand-turned supply at 1.1038/1.1074 yesterday, which happens to intersect with a 50.0% retracement at 1.1061 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1048. Downside from this angle has 1.0946/1.0897 to target as supply-turned demand, while moves higher could rise as far north as demand-turned supply at 1.1218/1.1245.
H1 timeframe:
Recent upside joined 1.1050, marginally paring gains towards channel resistance-turned support (1.0827). Beyond 1.1050, limited supply is visible until blending with 1.11. Failure to hold off the current channel formation has the key figure 1.10 on the radar.
With reference to the RSI indicator, we are seeing price exit overbought terrain, off recent peaks at 85.20.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price shows we could nudge a touch higher to supply at 1.1120/1.1076 before witnessing moves lower. This suggests a minor whipsaw above the current H4 supply at 1.1038/1.1074 may be in order, despite its Fib confluence.
On account of the above, 1.11 on the H1 may offer resistance today. In case of price toppling 1.10 to the downside (essentially ignoring daily supply), intraday bearish scenarios to H1 demand at 1.0893/1.0932 are an option.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, demand at 0.6358/0.6839 yielded, scoring seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426. Recent movement, however, staged a reasonably impressive recovery, reclaiming more than 50% of March’s losses.
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since 2011.
Daily timeframe:
Although somewhat lacking conviction, daily candles continue to explore higher ground, registering its fifth daily consecutive gain Thursday and tackling the upper boundary of a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062.
Structurally, a break higher has free reign to approach a demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, which holds within it a 50.0% retracement band at 0.6271.
With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is seen making headway north of 30.00, though has yet to challenge 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Supply seen at 0.6147/0.6078, garnished with Fibonacci studies around the 0.61ish region, made a showing in recent hours.
From a technical standpoint, the reason behind daily price lacking conviction to the upside likely has something to do with the H4 candles carving out what appears to be a rising wedge pattern (0.5506/0.5963). The pattern’s take-profit target is generally measured by taking the distance of the base and adding it to the breakout point.
H1 timeframe:
Risk currencies latched on to a healthy bid yesterday, largely sponsored by USD downside. Things calmed as we reconnected with familiar supply priced in at 0.6100/0.6063 into US trade. Moves lower from here has the widely watched 0.60 barrier on the radar; a break higher could rejuvenate bids and make a play for the 0.62 handle, having seen limited supply between the current supply and 0.62.
Technical indicators show the RSI working its way out of overbought territory and producing bearish divergence.
Structures of Interest:
In view of analysed charts, research has buyers perhaps leading the way right now. With room to move higher on the monthly chart, daily flow seen attacking the top edge of a demand-turned supply at 0.5926/0.6062 and H1 bears exhibiting a somewhat indifferent tone at the underside of supply from 0.6100/0.6063, a break of 0.61 is likely in store. Whether enough to validate a bullish bias, though, is, of course, trader dependent. Entering long above 0.61 still faces opposition from H4 supply at 0.6147/0.6078 and possibly the upper boundary of the H4 rising wedge formation.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into the month’s end.
March breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet has recovered in strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged. Note current action is seen fading the descending triangle’s upper boundary.
Daily timeframe:
Since the beginning of the week, candlestick analysis emphasised an indecisive tone ahead of supply at 112.64/112.10. Thursday, however, put in a dominant bearish candle, filling a large portion of its body, and is now poised to grip the 200-day SMA value, currently circulating around the 108.31 region.
Beyond the noted SMA, price is tipped to soften towards demand posted at 105.70/106.66.
H4 timeframe:
Technicians will note the ascending triangle formation (black lines 111.47/109.33) had price break to the downside in early trade Thursday and also dethroned channel support (101.18). Active buying is unlikely to emerge on this timeframe until crossing paths with the 38.2% Fib retracement at 107.66.
H1 timeframe:
Starved of support, USD weakness across the board prompted a feisty decline Thursday, upsetting both 111 and 110 levels, with price currently trading within striking distance of 109. Demand, as you can see, is also present at 108.84/109.23, reinforcing the said round number. A violation of the current demand lays the foundation for a possible move to 108.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly, daily and H4 timeframes underscore the possibility of further losses, with the 200-day SMA at 108.31 set as an initial downside target, followed by 108 on the H1 and then the 38.2% Fib retracement noted on the H4 at 107.66.
As a result, a recovery from the current H1 demand at 108.84/109.23 is unlikely to generate much in terms of upside today. A H1 close beneath the zone, therefore, may unlock the door for bearish scenarios to 108.31.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Bottoming at lows not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, March’s candle is staging an impressive recovery and has regained approximately 50% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 may, despite having its lower edge shattered, remain relevant should price close the month above its base. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Trendline supports drawn from 1.2373 and 1.2041 continue to serve as a technical ‘floor’ in this market, with price recently going toe-to-toe with an interesting area of supply from 1.2212/1.2075. In light of a lacklustre response out of the said supply, traders are urged to pencil in the possibility of moves materialising towards supply at 1.2509/1.2372.
The RSI indicator is seen turning higher from lows at 17.00, currently gaining a foothold above 30.00. The 200-day SMA has also begun turning lower after flattening since November 2019.
H4 timeframe:
UK retail sales as well as the BoE meet was largely overlooked Thursday, with the majority of eyes on the dollar’s decline over rising US jobless claims as a result of the coronavirus spread.
Dollar weakness fuelled a spirited advance through fresh supply around 1.2136/1.2049 into the walls of another layer of supply drawn in at 1.2273/1.2198, stationed just beneath a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.2279 and a 50.0% retracement at 1.2282. Scoring additional gains on this timeframe may lead to supply at 1.2622/1.2517 making its debut, resting a few points above a 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.2499.
H1 timeframe:
Following a fleeting retest at 1.19, GBP/USD caught a fresh bid into London Thursday, slaughtering 1.20 and 1.21 until confronting supply from 1.2245/1.2192 amid US afternoon trade, which encapsulates 1.22. Sellers currently face channel resistance-turned support (1.1972), with a break of here exposing 1.21 as potential support. Upside beyond the current supply has 1.23 in the firing range, a level which offered reasonably sound S/R mid-March.
Concerning the RSI indicator, momentum appears to be slowing after dipping from peaks at 78.00 to a few points below 70.00.
Structures of Interest:
H1 supply failure at 1.2245/1.2192 has 1.23 in sight; the daily timeframe, nonetheless, suggests moves beyond 1.23 are possible, with the lower edge of daily supply coming in at 1.2372. Though do bear in mind, entering long above 1.2245 still faces opposition from H4 supply at 1.2273/1.2198.
Seeking bearish themes on a close beneath the current H1 channel support is challenging as the top edge of supply-turned demand at 1.2136/1.2049 on the H4 timeframe leaves little room to manoeuvre.
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