EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
In the early stages of March, price manoeuvred EUR/USD into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. Leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unopposed, the unit has since reversed gains and burrowed into demand at 1.0488/1.0912. Sustained downside may eventually prompt an approach to 0.9581/1.0221, a relatively fresh demand area drawn from 2003.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply pencilled in at 1.0925/1.0864 elbowed its way into the spotlight in recent trading, following a reasonably decisive run from demand plotted at 1.0526/1.0638
Further buying, however, has a supply zone parked at 1.1120/1.1076 in sight, intersecting with a 200-day SMA value, currently circulating around the 1.1083 neighbourhood.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 1.0946/1.0897 came within a handful of points of making an appearance Wednesday, following a near-1% gain. Note the aforementioned supply zone is set around the top edge of daily supply at 1.0925/1.0864.
Limited demand is visible on this timeframe until reconnecting with a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0651. A break higher, however, could see demand-turned supply at 1.1038/1.1074 enter the mix.
H1 timeframe:
Dollar selling bolstered EUR/USD demand Wednesday, after gleaning support off the 1.08 handle which converged with a channel support level (1.0636). US trade observed a 100-point gain, drawing the H1 candles towards highs just south of 1.09.
A break of the 1.09 handle today could see price explore ground to channel resistance (1.0827), and possibly to the key figure 1.10. In terms of the RSI indicator, we are seeing mild bearish divergence ahead of overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
While the prospect of a recovery out of monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 is certainly there, the daily and H4 timeframes display supplies at 1.0925/1.0864 and 1.0946/1.0897, respectively.
As a result, sellers, at least temporarily, may have the upper hand off the 1.09 handle on the H4, with a run back to H1 channel support possible.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, demand at 0.6358/0.6839 and 0.6094/0.5866 recently yielded, scoring seventeen-year lows at 0.5506.
Recent movement, therefore, exposes the possibility of another layer of demand at 0.5219/0.5426 entering the fray. Further downside is also in line with the primary downtrend, lower since 2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Price action whipsawed through supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798 and tested a well-grounded support level at 0.5563 in recent trade. Shaped in the form of a near-full-bodied bullish candle, AUD/USD upside unfolded Tuesday, closing in on a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, which contained downside (as demand) in October 2008.
Wednesday responded in the form of a half-hearted shooting star candlestick configuration – considered a bearish signal at peaks. Generally, shooting star patterns close at lows and display more of a candle body.
With reference to the RSI indicator, we trade off unparalleled oversold levels, with the value seen bottoming off 10.00, currently attempting to nudge above 30.00.
H4 timeframe:
The Australian dollar found itself under modest pressure heading into London on Wednesday, after topping a few points south of supply seen at 0.6147/0.6078, garnished with Fibonacci studies around the 0.61ish region.
Downside recently eclipsed local trendline support, formed from decade lows at 0.5506. This signals a move towards 0.5690 could unfold, stationed within the walls of daily supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers are seen taking a back seat in early trade Thursday, eyeing a test of 0.59, which merges closely with a 100-period SMA. Beyond 0.59, 0.58 also represents relatively strong support, owing to demand confluence at 0.5775/0.5812 along with a 50.0% retracement merge at 0.5788.
Technical indicators also show the RSI heading for oversold territory.
Structures of Interest:
The fact we produced a daily bearish candlestick signal out of a demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, along with H4 movement seen tunnelling through trendline support, bids are likely thin at 0.59, based on the H1 timeframe.
Therefore, assuming our chart studies are accurate, a H1 close beneath 0.59 and the 100-period SMA could be in store. This opens the floor to intraday selling towards 0.58, which not only brings with it reasonably attractive H1 confluence, it’s housed within daily supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798.
As such, 0.58 not only denotes a downside target for short positions, it puts forward a relatively strong support zone which could contain downside.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into the month’s end.
March breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet has recovered in strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged. Note current action is seen mildly fading the descending triangle’s upper boundary.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Shaped in the form of back-to-back indecision candlestick patterns, price action on the daily timeframe is seen testing demand coming in at 110.10/109.52. This perhaps provides a basis for an approach to supply coming in at 112.64/112.10, an area that’s held price action lower on three occasions since March 2019.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Price action on the H4 timeframe has been compressing within the walls of an ascending channel formation between 101.18/105.91 since mid-March. On top of this, we’ve also recently seen the candles carve out an ascending triangle formation (black lines 111.47/109.33), stationed just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 111.87.
Ascending triangles are typically viewed as continuation patterns, though breakouts to the downside also occur. It is, therefore, worth noting channel support and demand at 109.31/109.56, should a push lower materialise.
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY struggled to register firm direction Wednesday, as the US dollar index collapsed to lows of 100.84 and most major US indexes recorded reasonably firm gains.
Of late, H1 candles closed south of the 111 handle and approached its 100-period SMA. This is crucial, since filling sell-stop liquidity here could encourage further loss today, with 110 in view as logical support, having seen it hold since March 20th.
Structures of Interest:
Intraday activity on the H1 timeframe toppling 111 suggests H4 action is likely to breach the lower boundary of the ascending triangle formation and perhaps overthrow H4 channel support. A downside move is further bolstered off monthly structure as well as room seen to move to 110.10 on the daily timeframe, the top edge of demand.
Selling opportunities, consequently, may reside sub 111 today.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Down more than 7.5% in the month of March, traders pushed through a familiar area of support at 1.1904/1.2235 in recent trading, south of trendline resistance (1.7191).
With price toying with lows not seen since the 1980s, the next observable support target on the monthly timeframe falls in around 1.1297, a 127.2% Fib ext. level.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Trendline supports drawn from 1.2373 and 1.2041 continue to maintain a technical ‘floor’ in this market, with movement making a beeline for an area of resistance coming in from 1.2013/1.1958 yesterday. Note this area is located a few points south of an interesting area of supply from 1.2212/1.2075.
The RSI indicator is seen turning higher from lows at 17.00, currently gaining a foothold above 30.00. The 200-day SMA has also begun turning lower after flattening since November 2019.
H4 timeframe:
Since March 18th GBP/USD began constructing a consolidation with walls seen between 1.1881/1.1467, with price action testing the upper boundary yesterday, forming highs at 1.1972.
In the event of a break to the upside, an interesting port of fresh supply exists around 1.2136/1.2049, housing a 38.2% Fib resistance at 1.2099, along with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.2072. Should a test of this zone materialise, however, the possibility of a whipsaw to supply at 1.2273/1.2198 is also certainly there.
H1 timeframe:
Early movement Wednesday observed H1 breach the upper boundary of an ascending triangle formation and shortly after put in a retest. Early Europe proceeded to mark highs at 1.1972, a touch short of supply drawn from 1.2045/1.1982 and merging channel resistance (1.1932) and round number 1.20.
Price later found support off lows at 1.1639 as we transitioned into the US session, reinforced by a 100-period SMA and 1.17, leading to recovery peaks forming off 1.19 to 1.18 – a daily range of more than 330 points.
Structures of Interest:
Scope seen to post further declines on the monthly timeframe, coupled with daily and H4 price fading resistances, suggests the rally from 1.18 on the H1 timeframe may be short-lived.
However, continued bidding from 1.18 could shape a H1 ABCD approach (orange) to 1.2059, a touch above H1 supply at 1.2045/1.1982, which houses the widely watched key figure 1.20 and H1 channel resistance. This, therefore, is an area of resistance worthy of the watchlist should we pop higher.
A violation of 1.18, on the other hand, may establish a basis for an intraday move to 1.17, a clear area of support/resistance since March 23rd.
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