EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
In the early stages of March, price manoeuvred the pair into demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352. Leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unopposed, the unit has since reversed gains and burrowed into demand at 1.0488/1.0912. Sustained downside this week/month may prompt an approach to 0.9581/1.0221, a relatively fresh demand area drawn from 2003.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Demand at 1.0526/1.0638, coupled with RSI bullish divergence forming ahead of oversold terrain, elbowed its way into the spotlight in recent trading. Any upside in the EUR currency from here remains capped by 1.0777, the February 20th low, with moves higher likely to face opposition from supply pencilled in at 1.0925/1.0864.
Further slides, however, has the 1.0493 February 22nd low to target, closely shaded by the 1.0340 January 3rd low.
Interestingly, the 200-day SMA is also beginning to shows signs of resuming downside after flattening since the beginning of March.
H4 timeframe:
Latest developments on the H4 has the candles carving out a congestion area between a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.0651, stationed a few points north of demand seen at 1.0602/1.0630, and a local resistance at 1.0816.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday movement Monday witnessed the euro trade firmer against the buck, momentarily breaching 1.08 to the upside and crossing paths with its 100-period SMA, boosted by weakness in the dollar after the Fed’s QE expansion. Gains, however, tailed off amid a rebound in the buck in afternoon trade as demand for dollars continued to reign supreme.
Technically, we appear to have formed a double-top formation around 1.0830 (red arrows), where traditional confirmation falls on price closing beneath the trough central to the two peaks, the 1.0637 level. Prior to reaching this base, though, traders’ crosshairs are likely fixed on the 1.07 handle and 1.0650.
Structures of Interest:
In a nut shell, we have monthly price in the process of chalking up a monstrous bearish engulfing candle, though we remain within the walls of demand at 1.0488/1.0912. Daily price, on the other hand, is indecisive between resistance at 1.0777 and demand at 1.0526/1.0638. The same can be said for the H4 timeframe.
H1, however, recently formed a double-top pattern, which may be actionable on a close south of 1.0637 (thick black line). Though do bear in mind that by selling this formation you are shorting directly into demand on the daily timeframe, but in line with the primary trend. Therefore, expect a pullback to occur before sellers step in, if at all.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, demand at 0.6358/0.6839 and 0.6094/0.5866 yielded last week, scoring seventeen-year lows at 0.5506.
Recent movement, therefore, exposed another layer of demand at 0.5219/0.5426, potentially enticing further selling over the coming weeks, in line with the primary downtrend, lower since 2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
In recent movement, price action whipsawed through supply-turned demand at 0.5664/0.5798 and tested a well-grounded support level at 0.5563. Meanwhile, to the upside on this timeframe, the unit remains capped by a notable demand-turned supply base at 0.5926/0.6062, which contained downside (as demand) in October 2008.
With reference to the RSI indicator, we are trading from unparalleled oversold levels right now, with the value seen bottoming off 10.00, currently trading at 20.00.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
As we fade seventeen-year lows, focus on the H4 timeframe remains on newly formed supplies. The latest area to grace the charts falls in around 0.6036/0.5978, which entered the fold on Friday, forcing moves to lows of 0.5746 into the close.
Above 0.6036/0.5978, technical research reveals another layer of supply rests nearby at 0.6147/0.6078, with a break exposing support-turned resistance at 0.6314.
H1 timeframe:
AUD/USD eked out marginal gains Monday, adding more than 15 points, or 0.32%.
Technically, though, the H1 candles spent the entire session compressing within a potential bearish flag pattern (0.5699/0.5808 – green). What’s also notable is price currently mingling with the 100-period SMA and recently toppling 0.58 to the upside.
Meanwhile, technical indicators has the RSI holding above 50.00.
Structures of Interest:
The break of monthly demand at 0.6094/0.5866 commands attention, suggesting additional loss could be on the cards to demand at 0.5219/0.5426.
Daily price offers an indecisive tone, while H4 action remains south of supply at 0.6036/0.5978.
Given the position of monthly price at the moment, a H1 bearish flag breakout will likely be viewed as a strong bearish theme. Traditionally, take-profit targets for flag patterns are calculated via the preceding move added to the breakout point, often generating attractive risk/reward.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62). February had price elbow a touch outside the upper boundary of the aforementioned descending triangle to 112.22, though retreated lower and produced a shooting star pattern into the month’s end.
March breached the lower edge of the descending triangle, yet has recovered in strong fashion, leaving nearby demand at 96.41/100.81 unchallenged. Note current action is seen mildly fading the descending triangle’s upper boundary.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Shaped in the form of a near-full-bodied bullish candle last Thursday, a critical demand-turned supply at 110.10/109.52 was rattled and retested Friday, perhaps providing a basis for an approach to supply coming in at 112.64/112.10, an area that’s held price action lower on three occasions since March 2019.
Candlestick traders will also note Monday’s action closed by way of a half-hearted hammer candle pattern.
H4 timeframe:
Price action on the H4 timeframe has been compressing within the walls of an ascending channel formation between 101.18/105.91 since mid-March.
Supply at 111.65/111.22, stationed just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 111.87, welcomed its third test in recent hours. Continued downside from this region may see price voyage towards demand at 109.31/109.56, which intersects closely with the aforesaid channel support.
It should be noted the current supply/161.8% Fib ext. level at 111.87 is sited just beneath daily supply drawn from 112.64/112.10.
H1 timeframe:
USD/JPY eked out marginal gains Monday, despite moves to the downside observed mid-way through London after the US Federal Reserve announced additional liquidity, in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Buyers lost their flavour, however, a few points north of 111.50, with price recently dipping its toes in waters south of 111, likely weighed (technically) by higher-timeframe sellers out of H4 supply at 111.65/111.22 and monthly price fading structure.
To a degree, limited support is visible on the H1 timeframe until reaching 110; however, price may turn from the top edge of daily demand at 110.10.
Structures of Interest:
Keeping things simple this morning, the H1 close under 111 will see the majority of sell stops triggered, potentially fuelling additional downside south of the latter. Couple this with monthly and H4 action welcoming resistance structures, a slide towards daily demand at 110.10/109.52 and the 110 handle is a possibility.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Down more than 9.5% in the month of March, south of trendline resistance (1.7191) traders pushed through a familiar area of support at 1.1904/1.2235 in recent trading.
With price toying with lows not seen since the 1980s, the next observable support target on the monthly timeframe falls in around 1.1297, a 127.2% Fib ext. level.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Downside risks continue to build in GBP/USD as price continues to rattle trendline support (1.2373), with the RSI still seen treading water within oversold territory.
Down more than 5% last week, a decisive hold beneath the said trendline support places the weekly 127.2% Fib ext. firmly on the radar at 1.1297.
The 200-day SMA has also begun turning lower after flattening since November 2019.
H4 timeframe:
Fresh supply remains in view at 1.2192/1.2049. Combining the area of stacked supply just above at 1.2273/1.2198 and 1.2162/1.2220, we have ourselves a strong area of confluence around this region in the event we return to these price levels.
However, Monday’s action turned lower, seen bottoming a few points north of Friday’s historic low at 1.1409.
H1 timeframe:
Sterling gleaned fresh impetus mid-way through London hours Monday on the back of the Fed removing upper limits on QE and a widening of its credit facilities, which saw all majors, excluding the dollar, catch a bid. Leaving 1.17 unchallenged we dipped back beneath 1.16 and tested the spirit of 1.15. As of current action, the pair is seen nibbling at the underside of 1.16.
Structures of Interest:
From longer-term charts, price is ripe for additional downside, particularly if we retake (on a daily basis) daily trendline support.
Although we’re retesting 1.16 as resistance, the more appealing base of resistance resides around the 1.17 neighbourhood, which comes with a tested supply zone at 1.1754/1.1703, plotted a few points above the 100-period SMA.
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