Note—Charts provided by Trading View
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, as you can see, remains toying with the upper side of 1.1857/1.1352 demand, with the month lower by 1.3 percent. Price action traders will have noted the demand test, likely viewing this as a bullish signal. A decisive rebound from the aforesaid demand shifts attention back to the possibility of fresh 2021 peaks and a test of ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641).
In terms of trend, the primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.
Daily timeframe:
The dollar climbed Thursday amid higher US Treasury yields—benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield clocked 1.754% highs—consequently weighing on EUR/USD movement.
As you can see from the EUR/USD’s daily chart, buyers and sellers have been squaring off around support at 1.1887 since last Thursday (a level fixed nearby a 127.2% Fib projection at 1.1843, a 100% Fib extension at 1.1855, and a 200-day simple moving average at 1.1840).
Higher on the curve throws the 38.2% Fib level at 1.2021 in the mix. It is also worth acknowledging the trend on this timeframe has faced north since 2020.
H4 timeframe:
Thursday pencilled in a top just south of resistance at 1.1992 and established a one-sided decline. Assuming continuation selling takes shape, breaching March 16 low at 1.1882, this shines light on familiar support between 1.1818 and 1.1860 (Quasimodo support at 1.1818, a 161.8% Fib projection at 1.1835 and a 100% Fib extension at 1.1860).
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US hours Thursday, short-term flow dipped a toe in waters south of the 100-period simple moving average and subsequently retested the lower side of the dynamic value and held as resistance. Technically speaking, this paves the way for a possible test of 1.19, a level attached above demand at 1.1881/1.1865.
As for the RSI oscillator, we remain circling space beneath the 50.00 centreline, following a decisive rotation out of overbought territory earlier in the day. Testing oversold levels could also lead to a move into support from 20.64.
Observed levels:
Daily support positioned at 1.1887, as well as monthly price testing demand at 1.1857/1.1352, draws light to the 1.19 figure on the H1.
The H1 zone, therefore, may welcome a bullish scenario, targeting at least 1.1950 resistance.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
February finished considerably off best levels, establishing what many candlestick fans call a shooting star pattern—a bearish signal found at peaks. What’s also interesting was February’s movement came within striking distance of trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776), sheltered under supply from 0.8303/0.8082. Should sellers regain consciousness, demand at 0.7029/0.6664 is in view (prior supply).
March, as you can probably see, trades higher by 0.7 percent, and remains within February’s range.
In the context of trend (despite the trendline resistance [1.0582] breach in July 2020), the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).
Daily timeframe:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Thursday’s technical action had AUD/USD fade tops just ahead of trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 0.5506. Higher US Treasury yields helped lift the USD and ultimately pressured the currency pair lower.
Should sellers continue to dominate, February’s low at 0.7563 deserves attention as a logical support target, with subsequent downside perhaps taking aim at demand from 0.7453/0.7384 (previous supply).
RSI followers will note the value remains testing the grip around the 50.00 centreline, following 42.00 lows formed earlier last week.
H4 timeframe:
Demand-turned supply coming in at 0.7848/0.7867—housing a 61.8% Fib level at 0.7859 and a 127.2% Fib projection at 0.7849—welcomed price movement in early Europe and witnessed a bearish outside reversal form.
Continued downside today is likely to cross swords with demand at 0.7696/0.7715. Though having seen recent activity test the range of this area on a number of occasions, it may be fragile and could underline a test of demand at 0.7601/0.7627.
H1 timeframe:
AUD/USD settled Thursday around the 100-period simple moving average at 0.7756, following a break of 0.78 support and subsequent retest as resistance. A break beneath the aforesaid SMA highlights 0.77 support.
RSI action is also seen exploring territory below 50.00, with oversold space possibly making an appearance today.
Observed levels:
The monthly timeframe’s bearish stance, the daily timeframe turning south of trendline resistance, and the H4 showing space to move to at least 0.7696/0.7715, implies we’re possibly heading below the 100-period simple moving average on the H1 to test 0.77 (located within the noted H4 demand).
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Following January’s bullish engulfing candle and further outperformance in February, March is seen closing in (up by 2.3 percent) on descending resistance, etched from the high 118.66.
To the downside, support inhabits 101.70.
Daily timeframe:
Largely unchanged from previous analysis –
USD/JPY, as you can see, continues to hold south of Quasimodo resistance from 109.38. Of particular note is the Quasimodo formation closely fuses with the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance.
Price action traders are likely to be watching the aforementioned Quasimodo. However, recognising supply resides at 110.94/110.29, stops above the Quasimodo head (blue arrow—109.85) could be taken.
Areas of note to the downside are support at 107.64—a previous Quasimodo resistance—and supply-turned demand at 107.58/106.85.
With respect to trend, 2021 has firmly pointed to the upside.
Based on the RSI oscillator, the value remains within overbought space, hovering beneath resistance at 83.02.
H4 timeframe:
Unchanged from previous analysis –
Quasimodo resistance at 109.16 remains a technical ceiling on the H4, a horizontal level placed below supply drawn from 109.59/109.37 (holds daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38).
Further selling from the aforesaid Quasimodo could have sellers address demand coming in at 108.31/108.50, followed by support at 108.09 and fresh demand parked at 107.81/108.01.
H1 timeframe:
Short-term action Thursday spent the session rejecting trendline support-turned resistance, taken from the low 104.92, and wrapped up south of the 109 figure.
Also of technical significance on this chart is demand at 108.67/108.78 (considered an important zone given it was here a decision was made to initially break through 109 offers) received a spike to its lower side, possibly squeezing out some buyers and triggered breakout sell orders (sell-stops).
The break of demand signals the pair could drop to test support at 108.36.
Observed levels:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Longer term, with daily Quasimodo resistance at 109.38 and the monthly timeframe’s descending resistance forming a close connection, this area may welcome selling if tested. However, before sellers put in an appearance, a whipsaw to daily supply at 110.94/110.29 could take shape.
Shorter term, however, H4 and H1 charts indicate price is headed for H4 demand at 108.31/108.50, and possibly H1 support at 108.36.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The pendulum, as you can see, swung in favour of buyers following December’s 2.5 percent advance—movement that stirred major trendline resistance (2.1161).
February followed through to the upside (1.7 percent) and refreshed 2021 highs at 1.4241, levels not seen since 2018. March, on the other hand, has so far been lacklustre: flat, as of current price.
Despite the trendline breach, primary trend structure has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way—April high, 2018.
Daily timeframe:
Largely unchanged from previous analysis –
The BoE rate decision was largely overlooked on the charts. Technically, though, we remain hovering north of trendline support, drawn from the low 1.1409, an ascending line closely shadowed by support coming in at 1.3755.
Quasimodo resistance drawn from 1.4250 is worth a shout, should buyers maintain a bullish theme, while territory beneath 1.3755 elbows Quasimodo support at 1.3609 in the line of fire.
The trend, clearly visible on this scale, has faced higher since early 2020.
The RSI indicator remains buoyed by support between 46.21 and 49.16, with the value seen holding above 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Chart research reveals GBP/USD came within a whisker of testing Quasimodo resistance at 1.4007 (aligns with a 50.00% retracement) on Thursday, before recoiling to lower territory.
Support at 1.3852 remains a target to the downside, followed by demand at 1.3761/1.3789. While above 1.4007, space to test 1.42 resistance is visible.
H1 timeframe:
Transitioning into European hours on Thursday observed the pair shake hands with the 1.40 figure, a resistance that merges with a 161.8% Fib projection and has capped upside since late February.
Subsequent downside yesterday nosedived into 1.39 and the 100-period simple moving average around 1.3908, which, as you can see, echoed a supportive tone, aided by RSI movement bouncing off trendline support, as we moved into the US session. Technicians will also note a Quasimodo support resides under 1.39 at 1.3878.
Observed levels:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Monthly price holding above trendline resistance, and daily price also holding above trendline support, emphasises a bullish vibe.
Shorter-term price action on the H1 timeframe shows price bouncing off 1.39. Though beneath this big figure, Quasimodo support at 1.3878 is seen, which could tempt a whipsaw scenario. Should price spike below 1.39, this may feed buying as sell-stop market orders hit (fill) limit buy orders at 1.3878.
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