EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of demand from 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June extending gains and recently reconnecting with the lower ledge of supply at 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Last week had EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern (comprised of an 88.6% Fib ret level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 [red oval]), and rotate lower into the week’s end. In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory.
It’s common to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib ret levels (derived from legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
Despite this, Monday came back in force, reclaiming Friday’s losses and closing just off best levels.
H4 timeframe:
After candles dipped through 1.1241 (June 9 low), running local sell-stop liquidity, we ended the week testing support at 1.1226.
The aforesaid support, sponsored by the US dollar index dipping to lower levels, prompted a recovery, maybe charting the way to supply at 1.1415/1.1376, an area boasting a connection to the daily PRZ structure.
H1 timeframe:
Although somewhat swimming against the tide (higher-timeframe areas), buyers, after Friday completed an intraday ABCD pattern (where legs AB equal CD) at 1.1211 that prompted a recovery marginally above 1.1250, made it through 1.13 Monday.
Above 1.13, price met up with the 100-period simple moving average and 61.8% Fib ret level at 1.1331 (taken from legs A/D). Note 1.1331 represents the second take-profit target out of the ABCD pattern – this is a point you may see traders cover long positions.
RSI traders will also note the value is fast approaching overbought status.
Structures of Interest:
Overall, according to monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, as well as the daily harmonic bat pattern’s PRZ capping upside, intraday buying may eventually fade.
H4 supply at 1.1415/1.1376 is an area worthy of attention as a possible upside cap and may attract bearish signals. Though before reaching this area, a H1 dip through 1.13 from the 61.8% Fib ret level at 1.1331 could also be in store, with 1.1250 in line as an initial target.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s current rally has seen price test the mettle of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Technically, the area benefits from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe recently squared off under two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031, eventually shipping price through support from 0.6931.
Monday returned with a bullish outside day formation, on track to retest the underside of 0.6931. Support at 0.6755 remains in view.
It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664 is in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Early trade Monday observed action chalk up a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern out of demand at 0.6773/0.6814, joined with 38.2% Fib ret level convergence at 0.6808. This followed up with decisive buying, a move that toppled Friday’s high at 0.6911, and crossed paths with supply at 0.6962/0.6921.
Beyond the two aforesaid areas, supply is found at 0.7046/0.7036 and demand from 0.6695/0.6664 (prior supply).
H1 timeframe:
London’s morning session took the currency pair under 0.68, probing stops to lows at 0.6776. Price recovered, retook hold of the round number and retested the base as support heading into US trade. Follow-through buying had the pair climb 0.6850 and retest the level as support before going head to head with 0.69 and the 100-period simple moving average.
As you can see from the H1 chart, we’re now clear to approach 0.6950.
Structures of Interest:
Entering long the break of 0.69 may be a struggle, having monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 in motion, daily resistance circling 0.6931 and H4 recently entering supply at 0.6962/0.6921.
A dip back under 0.69 may be viewed as a strong bearish signal we’re heading back to 0.6850.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98, with June currently off best levels, down 0.4%.
Areas outside of the noted triangle pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Recording its fourth successive decline Thursday, demand at 105.70/106.66 welcomed price action and, as you can see, put forth a bullish phase Friday. Despite the earnest recovery, impetus lacked Monday, finishing indecisively.
The question going forward, therefore, is the rebound from current demand sufficient to retest the 200-day simple moving average at 108.40?
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 107.51/107.76 (prior demand) remains a visible fixture on this timeframe, holding price beneath its walls Monday though failed to revisit support at 106.91.
Traders will also be monitoring resistance at 108.09 and demand at 106.49/106.66.
H1 timeframe:
107 made a showing and ran local stops under 107.06 on Monday. The reaction threw intraday candles above the 100-period simple moving average, which, as you can see, holds as support as we head into Asia Pac hours Tuesday. The SMA also appears to be in the process of flattening.
Untested supply rests at 107.86/107.67, sheltered a few pips under the 108 level.
Structures of Interest:
Daily demand at 105.70/106.66 re-entering vision is an encouraging sign for buyers, though faces opposition by way of H4 supply at 107.51/107.76.
Having noted H4 sellers out of the aforesaid supply lacked impetus to bring in support at 106.91, this implies buyers may be looking to jump in the driver’s seat today and force a move to H1 supply at 107.86/107.67 (located around the edge of H4 supply).
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion in June, with the month currently recording gains of more than 2.2% despite facing long-term trendline resistance (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Monday, dominated largely by bids, snapped a two-day losing streak and concluded the session within shouting distance of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2681.
The next upside objective beyond the dynamic value sits at supply at 1.3021/1.2844, positioned a touch above last Wednesday’s high. Seeking lower ground from current price, however, shines light on demand at 1.2192/1.2361 (essentially representing the decision point to crack 1.2647 [April 14 high]).
H4 timeframe:
Monday whipsawed through orders at demand at 1.2476/1.2526, leaving another demand at 1.2374/1.2427 unopposed, and strengthened to resistance at 1.2629. Brushing aside this level will further squeeze shorts, according to the H4 chart, towards supply posted at 1.2851/1.2805.
H1 timeframe:
US trade penetrated trendline resistance (1.2813) and shortly after retested the barrier as support by way of a bullish inside candlestick pattern. This pushed for 1.26, which put up little fight, consequently throwing light on the 100-period simple moving average circling nearby at 1.2633.
Above the moving average, traders will likely swing for the 1.27 level, stationed just under resistance at 1.2740.
RSI traders will note the value approaching overbought levels.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly trendline resistance recently made an entrance, which, owing to the long-term downtrend, is currently capping upside. Recently breaking below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe at 1.2681 certainly adds weight to additional losses, with daily demand at 1.2192/1.2361 now in view (glued to the top edge of monthly support at 1.1904/1.2235). However, before we turn lower, a retest at the aforesaid moving average may be in order.
H4 resistance at 1.2629 is fast approaching reality as is H1 towards its 100-period simple moving average at 1.2633. Both levels are worthy of attention. Failure to hold here shifts focus to the 1.27 level as possible resistance, boasting a close relationship with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2681.
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