June 11th 2020: DXY Tests Daily Support at 95.84 Following Third Successive Daily Decline

June 11th 2020: DXY Tests Daily Support at 95.84 Following Third Successive Daily Decline, FP Markets

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

April spent the best part of the month feasting on the top edge of demand from 1.0488/1.0912, squeezing out a Japanese hammer candlestick pattern, typically viewed as a bullish reversal signal.

May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs, with June extending gains and recently reconnecting with the lower ledge of supply at 1.1857/1.1352, eyeing possible engagement with long-term trendline resistance (1.6038).

With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

After two days of reasonably standout bidding, EUR/USD knocked on the doors of a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern (comprised of an 88.6% Fib ret level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 [red oval]).

It’s common to see traders sell PRZs and position protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib ret levels (derived from legs A-D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.

In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator remains toying with overbought levels.

H4 timeframe:

EUR/USD swerved beyond the upper limits of supply at 1.1415/1.1376 in recent hours, throwing light on another supply at 1.1470/1.1447. Note the latter supply holds the upper boundary of the current daily PRZ, derived from the harmonic bearish bat pattern.

H1 timeframe:

The 1.14 level made an entrance in recent activity, albeit whipsawing to peaks at 1.1422. 1.1350 is set as the next support target on this timeframe, which, given the medium-term uptrend, could certainly hold ground.

Assuming a dip south of 1.1350, this will likely see price head for local support at 1.1317 (green). This is an interesting barrier having seen the base prove itself as both support and resistance recently. Despite its appeal, the threat of a whipsaw into orders at 1.13 is there.

RSI traders will also note minor bearish divergence present ahead of overbought levels.

Structures of Interest:

Intraday, the area between 1.13 and 1.1317, as aired in recent analysis, offers appealing support and could see price rebound from this barrier.

Longer term, though, we could be in for lower levels, having seen price engage with monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, as well as a daily harmonic bat pattern’s PRZ and H4 supply at 1.1415/1.1376.

June 11th 2020: DXY Tests Daily Support at 95.84 Following Third Successive Daily Decline, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

May’s extension and June’s impressive rally so far has placed monthly price around the upper border of supply at 0.7029/0.6664. What’s also notable here is within the supply area’s walls a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) was recently penetrated, signifying buyers may still have the advantage.

Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are seen squaring off between two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671) along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031 and support from 0.6931.

The biggest challenge for sellers right now is overcoming support at 0.6931. Breaching the aforesaid level may fuel a drop to another support pencilled in at 0.6755, while an advance could propel things towards resistance at 0.7197.

Indicator-based traders will note the RSI oscillator dipping from peaks at 80.00, perhaps exiting overbought territory today. It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6663 is in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.

H4 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

0.7046/0.7036 made its debut as supply Tuesday and, as you can see, held again Wednesday, albeit popping to multi-month peaks at 0.7064.

Assuming we push south and dethrone Tuesday’s low at 0.6898, demand at 0.6827/0.6858 (prior supply) will be on the hit list as the next potential floor on this timeframe. It should be noted this area also joins closely with trendline support (0.6402).

H1 timeframe:

Traders butted heads at 0.7050 yesterday, serving as resistance. Buyers have so far taken a backseat here, sending action marginally sub 0.70. Trendline support (0.6898) poses a concern for sellers here, as does the 100-period simple moving average.

Nudging through the aforesaid supports could see price unwind back to the 0.69 region.

RSI action recently topped ahead of overbought levels and is now within touching distance of retesting its 50.00 value.

Structures of Interest:

While monthly price appears to want higher levels, a dip lower could still be in the offing.

H4 supply holding at 0.7046/0.7036, along with its closely associated daily supply at 0.7059/0.7031/trendline resistances, H1 could make a run for levels under trendline support today, prompting bearish themes to 0.69. However, one cautionary point to consider before taking a position is daily support at 0.6931 may hamper downside ahead of 0.69. Therefore, ensure you factor this into your risk/reward calculation.

June 11th 2020: DXY Tests Daily Support at 95.84 Following Third Successive Daily Decline, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98, with June currently off best levels, down 0.6%.

Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Recording its third successive decline Wednesday and recently nudging through the 200-day simple moving average, currently circulating at 108.40, travelling to demand at 105.70/106.66 might be in the offing today. This would trip any sell-stops circling under 107.07 (May 29 low) and perhaps provide fuel to rebound from 105.70/106.66.

H4 timeframe:

Demand from 107.51/107.76 provided little in the way of respite yesterday, swarming bids and plunging to territory seen just ahead of familiar support at 106.91 and a 78.6% Fib ret level at 106.80. While unlikely, a retest at 107.51/107.76 could emerge prior to drawing in 106.91.

H1 timeframe:

Since Tuesday, H1 has been compressing within the walls of a falling wedge pattern (108.52107.92), which, in this case, could serve as a reversal signal. 107.32 (green) gave way as support Wednesday, with 107 making a show as support.

A breakout above the H1 falling wedge (and preferably the 107.32 resistance) would be viewed as an encouraging sign to the upside, perhaps eyeing supply at 107.86/107.67.

The RSI indicator is seen driving deeper into oversold territory, currently testing sub 20.00 values.

Structures of Interest:

Following a breakout above the H1 falling wedge/H1 resistance at 107.32, buyers could stage an intraday recovery today towards H1 supply at 107.86/107.67. It is also worth noting we might whipsaw through orders at 107 into H4 support at 106.91 before putting forward an attempt at a breakout.

June 11th 2020: DXY Tests Daily Support at 95.84 Following Third Successive Daily Decline, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in motion into June, with the month currently recording gains of more than 3%. Neighbouring resistance also recently entered the mix, in the form of a trendline (1.7191).

Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Off best levels, GBP/USD fell after clipping the upper wall of supply at 1.2649/1.2799 (prior demand). Maintaining a spot above the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2677, however, could eventually have traders go head to head at supply from 1.3021/1.2844.

With respect to the RSI indicator, we recently entered overbought terrain on this timeframe.

H4 timeframe:

Partially altered from previous analysis –

Wednesday, as you can see, travelled to supply at 1.2851/1.2805 (glued to the underside of daily supply at 1.3021/1.2844), an area boasting mouth-watering momentum out of its base and essentially representing a decision point to break the 1.2725 low (Feb 28). Owing to its standing as a supply zone, holding under this base is not a surprise.

1.2699/1.2605 represents demand, reinforced by another local demand coming in from 1.2583/1.2632.

H1 timeframe:

Amid London trade Wednesday, price action retested support at 1.2740 and spent the remainder of the day ranging between the aforesaid support and the 1.28 level.

As we write, price is threatening a break of 1.2740, shining light on 1.27 as the next possible support, a level that currently has a connection with the 100-period simple moving average. Beyond 1.27 unshackles downside to demand at 1.2606/1.2623.

Structures of Interest:

Monthly trendline resistance made an entrance yesterday, which, owing to the long-term downtrend, may cap upside attempts going forward.

Upside momentum on the daily timeframe is certainly slowing, according to the candle bodies, though before sellers make a stance, we could see a pop to supply at 1.3021/1.2844.

Intraday, traders are perhaps watching for 1.27 to give way before getting involved, with a target set at H1 demand from 1.2606/1.2623 (positioned within H4 demand at 1.2583/1.2632).

June 11th 2020: DXY Tests Daily Support at 95.84 Following Third Successive Daily Decline, FP Markets

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The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.




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