EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422 and finished adding 1.19%, despite running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 mid-month (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]). July is currently seen toying with levels just ahead of the aforesaid supply.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
Monday, however, observed the euro advance as the buck tracked risk sentiment as equities rose. This has likely made sellers nervous on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Monday’s extension to the upside conquered channel resistance (1.1422), subsequently hurling the candles into a 127.2% AB=CD bearish pattern at 1.1336 and nearby resistance at 1.1348.
This may, as long as sellers remain in the driving seat, direct moves back to retest the breached channel formation.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into US trade Monday, a relatively spirited advance took shape, breaching 1.13 and pencilling in a session peak just ahead of 1.1350, before retreating. The move also hauled the RSI value into overbought levels, and produced a notable demand area at 1.1280/1.1294, the decision point to take on the 1.13 base.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 continues to emphasise a bearish tone in this market.
The daily chart reminds traders there’s still also scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106.
H4 appears set to recoil back to channel support, fading an AB=CD correction pattern.
H1 highlights demand at 1.1280/1.1294. A fakeout scenario through 1.13, a move that breaches the aforesaid round number, tests current demand and closes back above 1.13 may be a welcomed intraday buy signal. However, this would have traders compete against monthly and H4 sellers. Therefore, trade cautiously.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension, together with June’s follow-through, has supply at 0.7029/0.6664 echoing a vulnerable tone in early July, particularly as an intersecting long-term trendline resistance (1.0582) shows signs of giving way.
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD crossed resistance at 0.6931 Monday, marking its sixth successive daily advance. The break to the upside shines focus on two trendline resistances close by (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), with a break unmasking another resistance at 0.7197.
Failure to maintain a position above 0.6931 will throw light back on support at 0.6755. Traders will also note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6670 lurks just south of here, a dynamic value in the process of flattening following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Since June 10, H4 has been in the process of establishing a (bullish) pennant pattern between 0.7064/0.6776, generally considered a continuation pattern among chart pattern traders. As you can see, the pair mildly advanced last Thursday, penetrating the upper boundary of the aforesaid pennant and shortly after retesting the base as support.
Friday, despite decreased liquidity across the board due to the US holiday, modestly extended Thursday’s retest, with Monday adding to gains. Supply at 0.7058/0.7029 is featured as the next obstacle on this timeframe.
H1 timeframe:
Monday had supply at 0.7003/0.6987 (holds 0.70 within its upper boundary) greet price action into the US session, generating a mild pullback.
Trendline support (0.6877), together with 0.6950, represents near-term support.
Structures of Interest:
According to the monthly timeframe, although we’re still trading within supply at 0.7029/0.6664, price is testing waters above a connecting trendline resistance, stressing a mild bullish tone. This is further confirmed on the daily timeframe after crossing resistance at 0.6931.
The recent close north of the bullish pennant pattern (0.7064/0.6776) and room to advance on the H4 timeframe was a clear buy signal, helping confirm upside on the higher timeframes. To continue seeking higher ground, H1 must overcome supply at 0.7003/0.6987, which will have traders target H4 supply at 0.7058/0.7029.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
April and May were pretty uneventful, with June also wrapping up indecisively in the shape of a neutral doji candlestick pattern.
Areas outside of the noted triangle can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Despite failing to connect with the 200-day simple moving average at 108.37 last week, upside momentum came to an abrupt halt Wednesday and fashioned a bearish outside day. For that reason, given Thursday and Friday’s lacklustre performance, and another mild bearish outside day forming yesterday, light still shines on a possible run back to demand at 105.70/106.66.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Following a temporary bottom ahead of demand at 107.03/107.28, price action made contact with the aforesaid area in recent hours.
The 107.03/107.28 zone, therefore, remains a key base today, an area which represents a decision point that broke through the 107.45 and 107.64 peaks. It should also be noted we have a trendline support lurking just beneath the zone (106.58).
H1 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Located within the upper boundary of H4 demand, traders will also note another demand sited on the H1 at 107.16/107.26 was forced into the mix on Monday, confirmed by an RSI oversold signal. This area is particularly alluring, owing to the momentum delivered out of its base and the levels the movement breached, including 107.50.
Buyers clearly have interest in the H1/H4 demand combination, with 107.50 set as a logical (initial) target on the H1, a level that aligns with trendline resistance (prior support – 107.35).
Structures of Interest:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Monthly price remains contained within the limits of its descending triangle, with no sign of a break occurring anytime soon. The daily timeframe has eyes for demand at 105.70/106.66 this week, but as things stand on the monthly timeframe (indecisive), a turn higher to test the 200-day simple moving average at 108.37 is also not out of the question.
H4 demand at 107.03/107.28, as well as H1 demand within at 107.16/107.26, are interesting areas, perhaps holding sufficient influence to draw in at least 107.50 on the H1 timeframe today.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 and long-term trendline resistance (1.7191) remains clear structure on the monthly timeframe at the moment, with the latter prompting a notable upper shadow in June.
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008, essentially placing 1.1904/1.2235 in a vulnerable position.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 1.2192/1.2361 recently received price action, stirring a notable bid. This is an area not only fastened to the top edge of monthly support, but also considered the decision point that broke 1.2647 (April 14 high). To the upside, traders will be looking at the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2683, with a violation uncovering supply at 1.3021/1.2844.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Support at 1.2453 sponsored a mild advance Monday, with supply at 1.2652/1.2544 fixed as the biggest challenge for buyers on the H4 timeframe right now.
Sub 1.2453, sellers appear free to stretch their legs until crossing paths with demand at 1.2360/1.2386.
H1 timeframe:
Traders went head to head at 1.25 on Monday, which held despite numerous upside attempts.
The 100-period simple moving average at 1.2462 is seen closing in, set just above the 1.2450 support.
If we go ahead and take 1.25 today, mild tops around 1.2528 deserve notice, as does the 1.2550 resistance.
Structures of Interest:
Aside from the clear downtrend the pound remains in, the technical construction on the monthly chart has price action sandwiched tightly between the support area at 1.1904/1.2235 and trendline resistance. Daily price could literally spin either way over the coming week, with a 200-day simple moving average set as resistance and demand to the downside at 1.2192/1.2361.
H4 has price action engaging support at 1.2453, with price now set within close proximity of supply at 1.2652/1.2544. H1, although holding 1.25, exhibits a fragile tone, throwing light on a possible bump to 1.2550.
On account of the above, a H1 close back above 1.25 could tempt buying, with targets set at the underside of H1 supply at 1.2544, the 1.2550 H1 resistance, as well as the 1.26 level.
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