EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, and subsequent break of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 in August, a modest correction surfaced. However, buyers making an entrance in November and December currently trading higher by 2.4 percent reasons additional upside may be on the horizon, with ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641) perhaps targeted.
The primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.
Daily timeframe:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Daily activity squeezed through the upper perimeter of a descending wedge pattern (correction) between 1.2011 and 1.1612 (not the prettiest of structure here with some maybe interpreting this arrangement as a descending triangle pattern) heading into the final rounds of November. December also overrun resistance at 1.2095, shaping a bullish flag pattern (1.2177/1.2078).
As we head into the final days of what has been a tumultuous 2020, price action is seen consolidating within close range of the descending wedge pattern’s take-profit target at 1.2318 (yellow), and also the bullish flag’s take-profit level at 1.2384 (purple).
The trend on this timeframe has decisively pointed north since March (secondary trend).
We can also see the RSI entered overbought space and formed a double-top pattern. Note the neckline at 68.27 was recently penetrated.
H4 timeframe:
Since December 17, the H4 has shaped a symmetrical triangle (1.2271/1.2129) – a consolidation pattern formed beneath neighbouring resistance from 1.2255. A breakout north may witness buyers strive for supply at 1.2351/1.2333, conveniently set a few pips above the daily descending wedge pattern’s take-profit target at 1.2318 (yellow). A breakout lower could see trendline support (1.1602) make a show.
H1 timeframe:
The Christmas period witnessed EUR/USD gradually compress higher, moulding an ascending channel (1.2160/1.2221). Additional structure to be mindful of is the 1.2250 resistance and 1.22 support (and 100-period simple moving average).
RSI action journeyed below 50.00 Monday and joined hands with demand at 39.11/46.29.
Observed levels:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
As aired in our last technical report, higher timeframes display room to rally on the monthly chart, in addition to the two bullish patterns in play on the daily timeframe. This implies buyers could attempt to refresh year-to-date highs.
A H4 close above the symmetrical triangle (1.2271) and H4 resistance at 1.2255 helps confirm upside interest and provides traders a possible entry long.
H1 traders, however, may seek a bullish theme around the 1.22 support, a level currently intersecting with channel support (1.2160).
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
On track to close out 2020 in positive territory, December currently trades higher by 3.2 percent following November’s 4.5 percent rebound from demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply).
Buyers, according to the monthly chart, appear free to explore as far north as 0.8303/0.8082 in the coming months, a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).
In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).
Daily timeframe:
Bottoming within close range of demand at 0.7453/0.7384 (prior supply) directs light towards 0.7674 resistance. Despite this, the RSI indicator recently visited resistance around 80.19, a level in play since 2003, and exited overbought terrain, with additional downside momentum targeting support at 52.00.
The trend on this timeframe is considered north.
H4 timeframe:
Refreshing YTD peaks unearths supply at 0.7665/0.7644 (extended from June 2018), an area situated below daily resistance at 0.7674.
Downstream, demand calls for attention around the 0.7486/0.7514 region.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into the final few hours of trading Monday, intraday price action is seen mingling with the lower side of the 100-period simple moving average, a handful of pips north of demand at 0.7545/0.7555.
Above, crosshairs are likely fixed on 0.76 resistance, while below 0.7545/0.7555 shines light on December 22 low at 0.7516 and the 0.75 level.
Traders will also note the RSI pushed through 50.00 and is on course to tackle oversold territory.
Observed levels:
The daily timeframe showing space to attack resistance at 0.7674, on top of monthly price calling for higher ground, throws light on H1 demand at 0.7545/0.7555 as a place dip-buyers may find interest in.
Alternatively, a dip into H4 demand at 0.7486/0.7514 could be in store, an area holding the 0.75 level on the H1.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.
December, currently down by 0.4 percent, is seen attempting to pursue terrain beneath 104.62.
104.62 ceding ground throws light on support from 101.70, with a break uncovering trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit level at 91.04 (red).
Daily timeframe:
Support at 103.08 emerged on December 17 and, as you can see, has so far held form, potentially setting the technical stage for additional gains to trendline resistance (111.68). Light falls on demand at 100.68/101.85 if sellers make a push through 103.08 support.
RSI enthusiasts will also note upside momentum is bound for 57.00 resistance (capping upside since July).
H4 timeframe:
H4, as you can see, is in the middle of establishing an ascending triangle pattern between 103.89/103.19. Additional resistance can be seen at 104.14, plotted alongside a 127.2% Fib projection at 104.17.
Downriver, daily support at 103.08 remains a central level.
H1 timeframe:
Buyers and sellers are currently squaring off around last Monday’s high at 103.89 (essentially the upper side of the H4 timeframe’s ascending triangle pattern), following a dominant push above 103.50 resistance and the 100-period simple moving average.
104 is sited as the next possible resistance, with a break unearthing H4 resistance at 104.14.
Also notable is the RSI indicator lingering ahead of overbought space.
Observed levels:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Monthly price pursuing a bearish theme below descending triangle support at 104.62 places a question mark on daily support at 103.08. A daily close below the aforementioned level unlocks the possibility of monthly support surfacing around 101.70 (located within daily demand at 100.68/101.85).
Shorter-term price action is focussed around the upper side of the H4 timeframe’s ascending triangle pattern at 103.89.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
November trading higher by 2.9 percent and December currently higher by 1.0 percent recently stirred trendline resistance (2.1161).
In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April high, 2018.
Daily timeframe:
Partly modified from previous analysis –
Supply at 1.3622/1.3467 has represented an area of importance since June 2018 on the daily chart. However, having seen September’s reaction fail to deliver a concrete lower low, together with December’s response unable to capsize support at 1.3176, buyers still appear to have the upper hand.
Resistance at 1.3755 stands out above the aforesaid supply, with follow-through buying emphasising supply at 1.3996/1.3918.
The RSI reveals strong support around 47.00, with resistance forming at the 66.00 region.
H4 timeframe:
H4 action failed to find acceptance above 1.3607 resistance, a level which put a cap on upside mid-December. Monday is currently down by 0.7 percent and, aside from support potentially emerging from the December 22 low at 1.3303, chart studies show scope to approach 1.3182 support (and trendline support [1.2687]).
H1 timeframe:
After overwhelming 1.35 bids and breaching the 100-period simple moving average Monday, a 1.3424/1.3453 Fib support zone made an entrance (made up of 61.8% and 38.2% Fib levels – green). 1.34 support is seen a few pips south of the area in the event sellers call for lower levels.
Interestingly, the RSI took on 50.00 support and tested oversold levels, establishing a descending wedge.
Observed levels:
Monthly trendline resistance remains in the fight, though with daily supply at 1.3622/1.3467 currently on shaky ground this suggests price may visit daily resistance at 1.3755.
Interested buyers out of the H1 Fib support zone at 1.3424/1.3453 are likely to tread cautiously. Buyers must contend with monthly trendline resistance, daily supply at 1.3622/1.3467 (albeit fragile), a lack of demand on the H4 and possible resistance emerging from the 100-period simple moving average.
With the above in mind, a bearish scene might unfold if 1.34 gives way on the H1, underlining 1.33 support as a potential target.
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