EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
As we head into the early stages of April, March left us with a long-legged doji indecision monthly candle, with its extremes crossing paths with a heavyweight demand-turned supply zone at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
To a degree, we’re now rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; Notably, however, April’s candle is testing the top edge of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Overlooking Tuesday’s hammer candlestick pattern, formed a point off demand at 1.0925/1.0864, Wednesday noted moves to lows at 1.0902.
Opposition, in terms of resistance, steps in as the 200-day SMA value at 1.1077, with a break revealing a reasonably free reign to supply derived from 1.1239/1.1179 that merges closely with a trendline formation (1.0879).
Yet, below current demand, the ground appears prepped for an approach to demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 1.0889/1.0937, the decision point to break 1.1045 (glued to the top edge of daily demand at 1.0925/1.0864), made its second appearance in recent movement, though on this occasion testing the lower limits of the demand at 1.0902. On a positive note, the current candle is in the process of pencilling in a bullish outside pattern, smothering two previous candles and suggesting moves higher may be on the cards.
To the upside, aside from tops around 1.1039 and Friday’s high at 1.1147, supply at 1.1336/1.1272 is exposed, intersecting with a 78.6% Fib retracement at 1.1310. Supply around 1.1210ish appears fragile (arc pattern), with the majority of orders consumed.
H1 timeframe:
H4 demand underscored above at 1.0889/1.0937 entered view mid-way through US trade Wednesday, exhibiting a hammer candlestick pattern two points shy of the 1.09 handle. As we head into Asia, the runway appears reasonably free to approach 1.10, with a break immediately exposing the 100-period SMA around 1.1022 and then 1.1050. Traders will also note the RSI indicator established a bullish divergence signal, with the second trough bottoming ahead of oversold terrain.
The story on the US dollar index has price action trading from a daily resistance area at 100.03/99.37 after the buck advanced on haven demand, with little reaction seen in wake of the final Markit manufacturing and ISM surveys. Therefore, a drop from 100.03/99.37 today may aid EUR/USD buying.
Structures of Interest:
The rebound from H4 demand at 1.0889/1.0937 reflects a bullish climate as we head into Asia Pac hours today, particularly if H4 price closes in the shape of a bullish outside pattern. This – coupled with monthly and daily price testing demand – is likely sufficient to encourage an approach to 1.10, with a break targeting the 100-period SMA at 1.1022 and then 1.1050, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1077.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The move reclaimed more than 70% of the month’s losses, consequently drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 0.5926/0.6062 yielded Friday, consequently exposing another layer of demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, which holds a 50.0% retracement band at 0.6271.
Though Tuesday’s movement inked in a bearish outside day setting, and generated additional follow through Wednesday, it means little in terms of the overall picture given we’re testing the top edge of 0.5926/0.6062 as potential demand.
With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is struggling to make headway north of 30.00, yet to challenge 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Concerns over the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the US dollar index latching onto fresh bids amid haven demand, continues to weigh on this market.
The foundation for a climb to 0.6314/0.6235 is still there, according to chart studies, despite AUD/USD recording its second consecutive daily loss yesterday. 0.6314/0.6235 comprises of a support-turned resistance at 0.6314, a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6273 and a 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.6235 (yellow).
H1 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Since Friday, the H1 candles have been carving out a consolidation zone between the 0.62 handle and demand at 0.6034/0.6087, sited just south of the 0.61 handle.
The said demand, technically speaking, appears fatigued, as intraday flow holds on by a thread, weighed by opposition forming off the 100-period SMA, currently circulating around the 0.6118 neighbourhood.
Outside of the current range, support can be seen in the form of the widely watched 0.60 figure.
Structures of Interest:
While H1 demand appears to be running out of breath, daily demand at 0.5926/0.6062 is still in motion. This is unlikely to discourage a break under 0.6034/0.6087 today, consequently tripping sell stops and drawing in buyers from 0.60. Note this key psychological level is also fixed within the current daily demand base.
As a result, a retest at 0.60 today that holds is likely to be interpreted as a bullish signal, possibly lifting AUD/USD to 0.61 and beyond.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62).
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the long-term formation can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Price action on the daily timeframe closed by way of a shooting star Japanese candlestick formation Tuesday off the 200-day SMA at 108.30, sparking additional selling on Wednesday.
This suggests price is likely to step into demand at 105.70/106.66 sometime today.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 108.88/108.49 made a showing Tuesday, enduring several upside attempts before embracing lower levels. As already highlighted on the daily timeframe, additional selling was seen Wednesday, perhaps shining the spotlight on a H4 supply-turned demand base at 105.75/105.17 as the next obvious platform, positioned a few points south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99.
H1 timeframe:
Increased demand for the Japanese yen, alongside Major US equity indexes plunging more than 4%, guided USD/JPY to 107 Wednesday, levels not seen since March 18.
A break of 107 reveals limited demand until striking 106 – to the left of price demand appears consumed, with consumption tails seen around 106.16, 106.22 and 106.29.
Structures of Interest:
With the exception of monthly price, which echoes a somewhat indecisive tone right now, daily and H4 timeframes suggest the pair may resort to a defensive play again today, potentially dethroning 107 to the downside.
A H1 close sub 107 will likely trigger breakout themes, with the top edge of daily demand at 106.66 fixed as the initial target, followed by the 106 handle on the H1, which aligns closely with the H4 127.2% Fib ext. level at 105.99 and H4 supply-turned demand at 105.75/105.17.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Bottoming at lows not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, March’s candle staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant, despite recent moves to lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Trendline supports drawn from 1.2373 and 1.2041 continue to serve as the technical ‘floor’ in this market right now, with price recently engulfing supply from 1.2212/1.2075 and gripping supply at 1.2509/1.2372. With Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday forming indecision candles out of 1.2509/1.2372, buyers may have the upper hand here, emphasising the possibility of moves towards demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, which holds the 200-day SMA at 1.2656.
The RSI indicator continues to hold off lows at 17.00, though struggling to register gains north of 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Early trade Tuesday welcomed demand at 1.2147/1.2257 into the frame, set on top of a supply-turned demand at 1.2136/1.2049. A reasonably robust supply resides at 1.2622/1.2517, close by a 61.8% Fib retracement value at 1.2499. Another supply worthy of note, in the event we nudge higher, is 1.2854/1.2808, effectively representing the decision point that broke the 1.2725 28th February low.
Wednesday’s action meandered between current H4 structure, ranging between 1.2443/1.2330 and registering little in terms of defined direction.
H1 timeframe:
In recent sessions, the H1 candles have been carving out what appears to be a symmetrical triangle pattern between 1.2472/1.2330. Traders will note the 100-period SMA at 1.2356 drifts just south of price action, with the round number 1.24 intersecting with the noted symmetrical triangle.
Above the triangle formation we have familiar supply at 1.2520/1.2455, with a break exposing supply posted at 1.2610/1.2549.
The RSI indicator remains sub 50.00, as we write.
Structures of Interest:
The H1 symmetrical triangle will likely be considered a pattern of interest today, with take-profit targets measured by taking the base and adding it to the breakout point.
A breakout higher is likely to reach H1 supply at 1.2610/1.2549, whereas moves lower could see 1.22 welcomed back into view.
With room seen for price action to move higher on the H4 timeframe, and daily sellers generating little to the downside off supply at 1.2509/1.2372, a breakout higher could be in store.
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