EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is seen tunnelling into 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Following two back-to-back doji indecision candles and a dominant bearish outside day configuration on Wednesday, we saw Thursday remain on the defensive and test the mettle of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink).
The inability to sustain upside out of 1.0745/1.0830 suggests demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017, may elbow its way back into the spotlight.
H4 timeframe:
Support from 1.0831 recently ceded ground, with the said level offering stern resistance yesterday. Trendline resistance (1.0990) is also seen nearby. In light of the reaction off 1.0831 thus far, further selling could be on the cards towards demand at 1.0602/1.0630.
H1 timeframe:
Supply at 1.0855/1.0832, along with the 100-period SMA and nearby 1.0850 level, made a showing Thursday, producing a sizeable downside move on the H1 timeframe, one which overthrew the 1.08 handle. Aside from the possibility of support emerging off 1.0768 (April 6 low) and channel support (1.0756), the research team sees limited support on the horizon until crossing paths with 1.07.
Structures of Interest:
Sellers certainly appear to have the upper hand right now, particularly from an intraday perspective. A retest at 1.08, therefore, could spark a wave of selling, though there is a threat of a fakeout materialising through the round number to H4 resistance at 1.0831 before sellers step in.
While selling this market effectively involves shorting into higher-timeframe demand, buyers have yet to print anything of meaning out of either the monthly demand at 1.0488/1.0912 or the daily Fib zone from 1.0745/1.0830.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD, based on the daily timeframe, can be found holding gains south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031). With the likelihood of price revisiting the said levels today, pencilling in nearby supply at 0.6618/0.6544, sited just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, could be an idea in the event we explore higher ground.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting its defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Price action, as you can see though, is having a hard time reaching demand plotted at 0.6192/0.6247, with price action revisiting the reversal zone for a third time in recent hours. Striking this zone will likely be enough to tempt short sellers out of the said Gartley formation to reduce risk to breakeven. Some, however, may still hold for the 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing within the lower boundary of demand from 0.6065/0.6106 at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Heading into the US session Thursday, price action powered into 0.64, missing the 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6415 by a hair, before retreating sub 0.64 into the close. To the downside, technical research has 0.6350 in sight, converging with a trendline resistance-turned support (0.6444) and a 161.8%/127.2% Fib ext. area at 0.6341/0.6355 (yellow), trailed close by a 100-period SMA, currently circulating around 0.6330.
Structures of Interest:
Intraday, a rebound from the H1 area at 0.6341/0.6355 could be in store today, owing to its surrounding confluence. Whether buyers from here will have enough oomph to bring 0.64 back into the fold is difficult to judge owing to H4 price testing its harmonic reversal zone. In addition, buyers out of 0.6341/0.6355 must take into account the possibility of a fakeout being seen to the 100-period SMA.
Should we break through the said supports on the H1 timeframe, however, this could be enough to draw in sellers towards 0.63 and possibly to H4 demand at 0.6192/0.6247.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Leaving demand from 105.70/106.66 unopposed, USD/JPY seems to be in the process of forming a double-bottom pattern from 106.87 (black line). Although the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 108.30, could hamper upside, pattern traders will still be watching/hoping for a break above the 109.38 April 6 high (red arrow) to confirm the double-bottom pattern. This potentially preps the ground for moves to 111.30ish based on the double-bottom’s take-profit target (usually measured from the lowest trough to the peak and then adding this value to the breakout point).
Candlestick traders will, however, likely note the recently formed back-to-back doji indecision candles.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Demand at 106.75/107.22 remains a feature on the H4 timeframe, capping downside since the beginning of the month and sited just ahead of daily demand underlined above at 105.70/106.66.
Interestingly, since the middle of last week the candles have been compressing within what appears to be a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.07. A decisive move south will likely overwhelm buyers from H4 demand and potentially make a run for demand at 105.75/105.17. Traditionally, take-profit targets out of the noted pattern are formed by measuring the preceding move (109.38-106.92) and adding this value to the breakout point.
Should we pop higher, on the other hand, resistance is seen nearby at 108.53, with supply also resting at 109.71/109.20.
H1 timeframe:
Familiar supply at 108.16/107.99 made its presence known once again heading into US trade on Thursday, which holds the 108 handle within its lower boundary. 107.50 is proving a troublesome support to overcome, though should a break come to pass, demand fixed at 106.99/107.16 will likely enter the mix.
Structures of Interest:
Owing to lacklustre movement, higher-timeframe price action has witnessed limited change. Monthly price could effectively pop either way, while daily price, although showing signs of a potential double-bottom pattern at 106.87, may be hindered by the 200-day SMA at 108.30.
A decisive H4 close beneath the current bearish pennant pattern suggests we may head lower, though most traders will want to see H4 demand at 106.75/107.22 cleared before moving forward. However, do bear in mind that even with the said H4 base taken out, sellers must contend with nearby daily demand at 105.70/106.66.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play April, despite recent moves to said lows. Neighbouring resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2645, remains a dominant fixture to the upside on this timeframe. However, in recent days, a dynamic push through demand at 1.2509/1.2372 was seen, with Wednesday and Thursday’s sessions retesting the underside of the said zone as supply – note Thursday wrapped in the form of a half-hearted shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern (considered a bearish signal).
This may be enough to draw focus towards demand at 1.2212/1.2075 today/early next week.
H4 timeframe:
Limited change seen on this timeframe since Wednesday.
Price action recently welcomed demand at 1.2147/1.2257 back into the frame, which, so far, has been able to withstand any downside attempts. Supply rests close by at 1.2496/1.2437; this is a reasonably dominant supply with notable downside momentum out of its base, seen just ahead of another layer of supply at 1.2622/1.2517.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday activity settled Thursday at an interesting location. Trendline resistance-turned support (1.2647) is, as you can see, currently holding price, closely reinforced by a channel support (1.2247). The combination of the two said supports are likely enough to get buyers excited. The problem, however, is the 100-period SMA loiters close by at 1.2372, closely tailed by supply at 1.2422/1.2397, which holds 1.24 within and capped upside amid early US hours Thursday.
Beyond the current trendline supports, nevertheless, traders will note the 1.23 handle, with a break exposing demand marked at 1.2218/1.2250.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price is holding north of support at 1.1904/1.2235, albeit in the shape of a bearish candle, while daily activity retests the underside of 1.2509/1.2372 as resistance, suggesting lower levels.
Fed by trendline resistance-turned support, the H1 candles are holding marginally higher in early trade this morning. Additional upside could be seen towards H1 supply at 1.2422/1.2397, having noted room to move higher on the H4 timeframe to supply at 1.2496/1.2437. However, this would entail buying into a daily supply, therefore a cautious approach to longs could be worth considering.
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