EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is seen tunnelling into the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink) remains a focal point on the daily timeframe, capping downside early April and again at the tail end of last week. Monday and Tuesday, on the other hand, are seen hovering above the said zone, wrapping up by way of back-to-back doji indecision candles.
Last Wednesday’s high at 1.0990 may provide resistance, with a nudge above this point bringing on the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1050. The inability to sustain upside out of 1.0745/1.0830, however, suggests demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017, may elbow its way back into the spotlight.
H4 timeframe:
Not much really happening on this timeframe Tuesday, with price stationed around support from 1.0831 (closely linked with the top edge of the 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830, based on the daily chart).
The path of least resistance, as of current price, appears to be northbound. Limited (obvious) supply is evident until crossing paths with 1.1044/1.0966, yet slipping beneath 1.0831 will expose a small demand area plotted at 1.0782/1.0807.
H1 timeframe:
The technical picture on the H1 timeframe has price forming what appears to be a triple-bottom scenario around 1.0815 (yellow). Technically, we are also establishing a position above 1.0850, though also crossing paths with the 100-period SMA, currently circulating around 1.0863. North of here we could potentially approach 1.09 and, with a little oomph, maybe draw in supply from 1.0940/1.0920 which holds a 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.0922.
Traditionally, traders will want to see price break above the 1.0896 high (black arrow) to confirm the noted triple-bottom pattern.
Structures of Interest:
The H1 triple-bottom pattern at 1.0815 is likely of interest to intraday traders – even more so knowing we’re coming off not only H4 support at 1.0831 but also the 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 on the daily timeframe. Intraday breakout buyers may also find use in the area above the 100-period SMA should we push north of here.
Another possible scenario, despite monthly, daily and H4 timeframes showing supportive structure, is a fakeout above 1.09, one which tests the H1 supply at 1.0940/1.0920, could spark a wave of intraday selling, given buy-stop liquidity above 1.09.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD price action, based on the daily timeframe, can be found languishing south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
It may also be worth noting that a break above the said structures shines the spotlight on a nearby supply at 0.6618/0.6544, sited just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642. To the downside, demand at 0.5926/0.6062 remains the next support target on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting its defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, continues to make its presence known. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies are present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Price action, as you can see, made its way towards demand plotted at 0.6192/0.6247 on Tuesday. Striking this zone will likely be enough to tempt short sellers out of the said Gartley formation to reduce risk to breakeven. Some, however, may hold for the 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing within the lower boundary of demand from 0.6065/0.6106 at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
With respect to the intraday timeframes, H1 price is seen establishing resistance off 0.63 after breaking beneath the said figure in early London. Another area of interest worthy of attention is fresh demand coming in from 0.6216/0.6246. Traders are, however, urged to pencil in the possibility of a fakeout through the said demand to 0.62. Directly above 0.63 we will also be greeted with the 100-period SMA around 0.6327.
Structures of Interest:
Supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains an obvious ceiling on the monthly timeframe to be aware of should we continue pursuing higher ground. Though before reaching this base, the noted daily resistances must be overthrown.
In light of recent movement crossing paths with the underside of 0.63 and the latest H1 candle closing on its lows, along with H4 price showing room to extend losses out of the current H4 Gartley pattern off 0.6433, a move to H1 demand at 0.6216/0.6246 is a strong possibility.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis –
Leaving demand from 105.70/106.66 unopposed, USD/JPY seems to be in the process of forming a double-bottom pattern from 106.87 (black line). Although the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 108.30, could hamper upside, pattern traders will still be watching/hoping for a break above the 109.38 April 6 high (red arrow) to confirm the double-bottom pattern. This potentially preps the ground for moves to 111.30ish based on the double-bottom’s take-profit target (usually measured from the lowest trough to the peak and then adding this value to the breakout point).
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 106.75/107.22 remains a feature on the H4 timeframe, capping downside since the beginning of the month and sited just ahead of daily demand underlined above at 105.70/106.66.
Interestingly, since the beginning of last week the candles have been compressing within what appears to be a bearish pennant pattern between 106.92/108.08. Monday, as you can see, spent the session meandering within the pattern, though Tuesday put in a move to lows at 107.28 before retracting back into the pennant formation. A decisive move south will likely overwhelm buyers from H4 demand and potentially make a run for demand at 105.75/105.17.
H1 timeframe:
The early hours of trade Tuesday observed a breakout to the downside of a descending triangle pattern which, according to traditional interpretation, reached its take-profit target (measured by taking the distance of the base and adding it to the breakout point). Following this, we put in a bottom heading into the London session ahead of demand at 106.99/107.16 (holds 107 within), which saw the candles retake 107.50 as well as the 100-period SMA (107.67), placing the pair within close proximity of familiar supply drawn from 108.16/107.99 (holds 108 within).
As of current price we are poised to retest the 100-period SMA.
Structures of Interest:
As stated in previous analysis, long-term direction is difficult right now. Monthly price could effectively pop either way, while daily price, although showing signs of a potential double-bottom pattern at 106.87, may be hindered by the 200-day SMA at 108.30.
A decisive H4 close beneath the current bearish pennant pattern suggests we may head lower, though most traders will want to see H4 demand at 106.75/107.22 cleared before taking action. In terms of the H1 timeframe, we may see a pop north to supply at 108.16/107.99 before sellers step in.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains in play this month, despite recent moves to said lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2647, remains a dominant fixture to the upside on this timeframe.
Demand at 1.2509/1.2372 ceded ground Tuesday in reasonably dominant fashion, which may see nearby demand at 1.2212/1.2075 come under fire today.
H4 timeframe:
Despite taking out a portion of buy-stop liquidity north of supply at 1.2622/1.2517 last Tuesday, sellers remained in the driving seat and, as you can see, recently welcomed demand at 1.2147/1.2257 back into the frame. This is a reasonably dominant base that’s held price action higher on two occasions in recent trade. However, breaking through this demand, although it will appeal to breakout sellers, may have its move hampered by daily demand mentioned above at 1.2212/1.2075.
H1 timeframe:
According to recent price movement on the H1 timeframe, we dipped through orders at 1.23 Tuesday and addressed demand at 1.2218/1.2250. Accompanied by an oversold RSI signal, we saw price bottom and grasp 1.23. Above here, demand-turned supply exists at 1.2375/1.2352, with a violation exposing 1.24.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price is seen holding north of support at 1.1904/1.2235, albeit in the shape of a bearish candle.
Daily price appears poised to approach demand from 1.2212/1.2075.
Intraday flow has H4 price testing 1.2147/1.2257, which could, technically speaking, be enough to pull the H1 candles above 1.23 towards demand-turned supply at 1.2375/1.2352. Thus, a H1 close above 1.23 may be of interest to breakout buyers today.
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