EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
In the early stages of March, price manoeuvred EUR/USD into a heavyweight demand-turned supply zone at 1.1857/1.1352. Leaving long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) unopposed, however, the pair reversed gains and burrowed into demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The recent recovery, nevertheless, reclaimed monthly losses, trading pretty much unchanged as we head into April, formed in the mould of a long-legged doji indecision monthly candle.
To a degree, we’re now rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures.
The primary downtrend remains in motion, trading lower since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Shaped by way of a hammer candlestick pattern – candlestick traders consider this a bullish signal – a point off demand at 1.0925/1.0864, Tuesday’s close could see Wednesday hand the baton to bulls.
Opposition steps in as the 200-day SMA value at 1.1079, with a break revealing a reasonably free reign to supply
derived from 1.1239/1.1179 that merges closely with a trendline formation (1.0879).
H4 timeframe:
As underlined in Tuesday’s analysis, research highlighted a small demand, the decision point to break 1.1045, at 1.0889/1.0937 (glued to the top edge of daily demand at 1.0925/1.0864), as a point of interest. This was an area of interest due to sell-stop liquidity beneath Friday’s low. As you can see, price rebounded nicely from the said demand mid-way through the London session, by way of a hammer candlestick formation.
To the upside, aside from Friday’s high at 1.1147, supply at 1.1336/1.1272 is exposed, intersecting with a 78.6% Fib retracement at 1.1310. Supply around 1.1210ish appears fragile (arc pattern), with the majority of orders consumed.
H1 timeframe:
The rebound from H4 demand underscored above at 1.0889/1.0937 made its debut yesterday, bolstered by a sell-off in the US dollar index, a shade off the 100.00 handle. EUR upside overthrew 1.10, despite an attempt to hold in early US hours, and the 100-period SMA, with eyes firmly set on 1.1050 and 1.11 today. Limited supply is evident to the left of current price until 1.1255/1.1198 (note this area is tied to the upper edge of daily supply at 1.1239/1.1179).
On the data front, Chicago PMI dropped to 47.8 in March vs. February’s 49.0 reading, though beat consensus at 44.1. In addition, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined to 120.0 (1985=100), down from 132.6 in February, but outperformed consensus at 115.1. Both metrics failed to spark much impetus.
Structures of Interest:
The rebound from H4 demand at 1.0889/1.0937 reflects a bullish climate as we head into Asia Pac hours today.
The daily hammer candlestick formation, coupled with a potential retest at 1.10, a widely watched key figure, could encourage another wave of upside today, with 1.1050 sited as the initial target, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1079 and then the 1.11 handle.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The move reclaimed more than 70% of March’s losses, consequently drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 0.5926/0.6062 yielded Friday, consequently exposing another layer of demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, which holds a 50.0% retracement band at 0.6271.
Though Tuesday’s movement inked in a bearish outside day setting, it means little in terms of the overall picture, generating at most a retest at 0.5926/0.6062 before heading for 0.6330/0.6245.
With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is seen making headway north of 30.00, though has yet to challenge 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply-turned demand at 0.6147/0.6078 continues to hold on the H4 timeframe, withstanding a number of downside attempts in recent sessions.
The foundation for a climb to 0.6314/0.6235 is still there, despite the indifferent tone out of 0.6147/0.6078. 0.6314/0.6235 is comprised of support-turned resistance at 0.6314, a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6273 and a 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.6235 (yellow).
H1 timeframe:
Since Friday, the H1 candles have been carving out a consolidation zone between the 0.62 handle and demand at 0.6034/0.6087, sited just south of the 0.61 handle. Note the 100-period SMA is also seen hovering just beneath 0.61, as of current price.
Outside of the current range, 0.63 represents resistance, encased within supply drawn from 0.6325/0.6275, whereas support beneath the aforesaid demand area can be seen in the form of the widely watched 0.60 figure.
Structures of Interest:
Range traders may seek to fade the current H1 range extremes today, in the event the limits are tested, targeting the opposing edge.
A fakeout through 0.62 could also be in store, running buy stops, testing the H4 resistance area between 0.6314/0.6235, which happens to merge with the underside of daily demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245. A test of the H4 zone, followed by a close back under 0.62 will likely entice sellers into the market.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern (118.66/104.62).
The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the descending triangle pattern.
Areas outside of this long-term formation can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand base coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Despite an earnest attempt to claim ground north of the 200-day SMA, currently circulating around the 108.30 region, price action on the daily timeframe closed by means of a shooting star Japanese candlestick formation. This follows Monday’s clear-cut indecision candle and suggests price may step towards demand at 105.70/106.66.
H4 timeframe:
Supply at 108.88/108.49 made a showing Tuesday, enduring several upside attempts before embracing lower levels. The 38.2% Fib retracement at 107.66 recently came under fire, stressing a fragile tone, owing to how deep price tested the level earlier in the week. Beneath here, the supply-turned demand base at 105.75/105.17 is the next obvious platform on the radar.
H1 timeframe:
Following the formation of a double-top pattern (green arrows) just south of supply at 108.84/109.23, USD/JPY navigated ground south of 108, weighed by the US dollar index retreating from highs of 99.95.
Demand is seen close by at 107.07/107.34, posted just ahead of 107. A break of 107 reveals limited demand until striking 106 – to the left of price demand appears consumed (check out the consumption tails [blue arrows]).
Structures of Interest:
With H1 price leaving demand at 107.07/107.34 unchallenged, and both daily (also chalking up a bearish candlestick pattern) and H4 price exhibiting room to press lower, a retest at 108 is likely on the watchlist today.
The said H1 demand serves as a logical downside target, followed by 107 and then daily demand plotted at 105.70/106.66.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Bottoming at lows not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, March’s candle staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant, despite recent moves to lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Trendline supports drawn from 1.2373 and 1.2041 continue to serve as the technical ‘floor’ in this market right now, with price recently engulfing supply from 1.2212/1.2075 and gripping supply at 1.2509/1.2372. With Monday and Tuesday forming back-to-back indecision candles out of 1.2509/1.2372, buyers may have the upper hand here, emphasising the possibility of moves towards demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, which holds the 200-day SMA at 1.2658.
The RSI indicator continues to extend off lows at 17.00, though struggling to gain north of 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Early trade Tuesday welcomed demand at 1.2147/1.2257 into the frame, set on top of a supply-turned demand at 1.2136/1.2049.
A reasonably robust supply resides at 1.2622/1.2517, close by a 61.8% Fib retracement value at 1.2499. Another supply worthy of note, in the event we nudge higher, is 1.2854/1.2808, effectively representing the decision point that broke the 1.2725 28th February low.
H1 timeframe:
1.23 took hold of price in early trade, lifting the unit through 1.24 to supply at 1.2520/1.2455, which, as you can see, generated a modest downside reaction to 1.24.
Failure to hold at 1.24 will likely draw 1.23 back into the fray, while a break of the current supply immediately exposes another layer of supply posted at 1.2610/1.2549.
The RSI indicator remains above 50.00, as we write, with the 100-period SMA nearing the underside of 1.23.
Structures of Interest:
Longs from 1.24 are an idea, having seen buyers holding daily supply 1.2509/1.2372 and sellers struggling to overthrow 1.24 from H1 supply at 1.2520/1.2455.
In the event further upside occurs, H1 supply at 1.2610/1.2549 offers a reasonable target, located within H4 supply at 1.2622/1.2517, which itself is stationed just beneath daily demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799. Not only does this area represent a logical upside target, it denotes a possible reversal zone, in light of higher-timeframe confluence.
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