EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is seen tunnelling into the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Despite a recovery from the 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink) early last week, in the space of two successive bearish candles we’re re-entering the said Fib base. In the event the mood remains sour, demand at 1.0526/1.0638, an area extended from March 2017, might elbow its way back into the spotlight. Sited just south of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0672, we can also see an ABCD correction (orange) merging with the current demand at 1.0614.
H4 timeframe:
A clear victim of broad dollar strength observed Thursday’s action cross paths with support at 1.0831. Pattern traders will also note the recently formed ascending wedge has its take-profit target, measured by taking the base and adding this to the breakout point (green), set around 1.0784.
Stepping south of the said supports may eventually see demand at 1.0602/1.0630 surface, drawn from April 2017, as supportive structure appears limited.
H1 timeframe:
Fading the 100-period SMA, organised as a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern, was, alongside a strong dollar bid, clearly enough to abandon 1.09 Thursday. Interestingly, we retested the underside of the said round number heading into London and again in early US trade before sailing through 1.0850.
1.08 calls for attention going forward, aligning closely with an ABCD bullish pattern (orange) around 1.0802.
Structures of Interest:
The combination of the H4 ascending wedge’s take-profit target at 1.0784, the 1.08 handle and H1 ABCD correction at 1.0802, along with the daily Fib zone between 1.0745/1.0830 and the H1 RSI indicator trekking oversold terrain could be enough to tempt buyers to make a show from 1.08 should we make it this far south today.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The Australian dollar broke down against its US counterpart Wednesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak a few points ahead of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
Thursday, nonetheless, failed to see much follow-through movement unfold, pencilling in a modest hammer candlestick formation off session lows at 0.6263.
Demand at 0.5926/0.6062 remains the next downside target on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, made its presence known Wednesday. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies were present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is subjective. One method may entail reducing risk to breakeven once/if demand at 0.6192/0.6247 makes an entrance; others may hold for the 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing within the lower boundary of demand from 0.6065/0.6106 at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Although Thursday put up little in terms of price movement, Friday appears poised to approach 0.6350, a level echoing strong confluence as potential resistance (comprised of the 100-period SMA, a 50% retracement at 0.6355 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6353).
Structures of Interest:
An intraday rejection from 0.6350 is feasible, with 0.63 calling as an initial target, followed by a run to 0.6247 (the top edge of H4 demand) and then H1 demand placed within at 0.6216/0.6246. 0.6350, for those short the H4 harmonic Gartley pattern, could also serve as a platform to pyramid current short positions.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Leaving demand from 105.70/106.66 unopposed, the US dollar concluded Thursday higher against the Japanese yen for a second successive day. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently circulating around 108.31, may, therefore, come under fire today.
A break above the 109.38 April 6 high could confirm a double-bottom pattern off 106.87 (black line), leading to a potential run to 111.30ish (the take-profit target is usually measured from the lowest trough to the peak and then added to the breakout point).
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 106.75/107.22 remains a feature on the H4 timeframe, with recent hours posting a reasonably modest recovery out of the said base. 108.53 denotes probable resistance, with a break drawing the light towards supply at 109.71/109.20 and a 50% retracement at 109.27.
H1 timeframe:
With sellers clearly taking a back-seat Thursday, price is left chewing on the 108 handle, as we write. A fakeout above the said round number, however, is likely this morning. The area between 108.44 and 108.14 is of interest (green), comprised of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 108.44, a trendline resistance (109.38), a channel resistance (108.08), a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 108.26 and a 50% retracement at 108.14 along with the RSI indicator nearing overbought territory.
Structures of Interest:
108.44/108.14 offers a potential area of confluence (resistance) today. Note this area also coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 108.31, with H4 resistance residing a touch north of the zone at 108.53.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant in April, despite recent moves to said lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2648, remains a dominant fixture to the upside on this timeframe.
Demand at 1.2509/1.2372 continues to house price as GBP/USD printed its second successive losing day on Thursday. Dropping beneath the said demand shines the spotlight on 1.2212/1.2075; a move higher, on the other hand, may see supply at 1.3021/1.2844 make its debut.
The RSI indicator recently dipped lower from 60.00, threatening moves back to 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Orders around supply at 1.2622/1.2517 remain fragile, following Tuesday’s breach. In spite of the recent pullback to lows of 1.2408, breaking 1.2622/1.2517 potentially builds a foundation to explore higher levels. Limited supply, according to chart studies, is evident on this timeframe until reaching 1.2854/1.2804, bringing with it a 78.6% Fib retracement level at 1.2809 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.2799.
H1 timeframe:
Supply at 1.2526/1.2510, an area which capped price on two occasions in recent trade (forming a double-top pattern at 1.2516 [red arrows]), may welcome price action for a third time today. Positioned just above the 1.25 handle and mixing with the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), this remains an area of strength. Also of note is the fact the base is glued to the underside of H4 supply underlined above at 1.2622/1.2517.
Structures of Interest:
H1 supply at 1.2526/1.2510 may be on the watchlists for some traders this morning, hoping for another rejection. There is concern, however, that buying pressure from daily demand at 1.2509/1.2372 may see higher prices unfold. In addition to this, other traders may feel a break above 1.25 this time around could be worthy of buying, due to H1 supply potentially having been weakened amid recent tests.
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