EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is attempting to regain a foothold from the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Despite yesterday’s decline in the mould of a bearish outside day candle, EUR/USD continues to hold north of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink).
Northbound, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1056 offers a layer of resistance. Supply at 1.1239/1.1179 also remains a prominent fixture on this timeframe, intersecting with trendline resistance (1.0879) and sited just north of a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1171.
In addition to this, traders may find interest in noting supply coming in from 1.1323/1.1268, having seen a potential AB=CD correction point terminate at 1.1276 (orange).
H4 timeframe:
The euro was left reeling as the US dollar index topped within striking distance of the 100.00 handle yesterday. Supply at 1.1044/1.0966, based on the EUR/USD’s H4 chart, aided Wednesday’s downside move, accompanied by a 50% retracement at 1.0954, a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973 and an ascending wedge. Note, the take-profit target out the ascending wedge pattern, measured by taking the base and adding this to the breakout point (green), is still in the mix, despite a late comeback in US hours Wednesday.
H1 timeframe:
Supply at 1.1033/1.0982 (encased within the walls of H4 supply at 1.1044/1.0966) did a superb job capping upside in the early hours of trade Wednesday. This led to a run through the 100-period SMA (1.0937) and a brief spell beneath 1.09, before returning to the underside of the said 100-period SMA and producing a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern.
Structures of Interest:
As a reminder, on the bigger picture we have monthly price rebounding from demand at 1.0488/1.0912, together with daily price, despite printing a bearish candlestick pattern yesterday, holding north of 1.0745/1.0830.
According to the H4 ascending wedge giving way, however, additional loss could be in the offing today, perhaps reaching support at 1.0831 and beyond. This – coupled with H1 price echoing a bearish vibe off the 100-period SMA – could guide price action beneath 1.09, potentially laying the foundation for moves to 1.0850.
AUD/USD
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The Australian dollar broke down against its US counterpart Wednesday, snapping a seven-day winning streak a few points ahead of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied closely by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
The solid bearish candle seen yesterday may be sufficient enough to prompt a run to demand at 0.5926/0.6062, though given its distance from current price, bulls may attempt to enter the mix in the interim.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, made its presence known Wednesday. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies were present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is subjective. One method, however, may involve taking partial profit at a 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D, standing at 0.6075.
H1 timeframe:
Amid a dollar recovery, the Australian dollar gleaned an unfavourable wind out of supply at 0.6461/0.6435 in recent movement.
What’s also noteworthy, from a technical standpoint, is price broke the lower edge of an ascending channel formation from 0.5991/0.6207, with follow-through selling reaching 0.63. Latest from this timeframe, nonetheless, has the H1 candles fading the 0.6350ish region, threatening the possibility of another approach to 0.63.
Price structure on the H1 timeframe also reveals reasonably robust demand lurking beneath 0.63 at 0.6216/0.6246. Traders interested in this area, however, must contend with the possibility of a fakeout materialising to 0.62.
Structures of Interest:
According to the technical framework presented here, AUD/USD reflects a bearish stance at the moment, echoing the possibility of an intraday run through 0.63 to H1 demand at 0.6216/0.6246, offering breakout sellers a potential opportunity today.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
In spite of yesterday’s modest recovery, snapping a four-day losing streak, the pair continues to suggest a dip lower to demand from 105.70/106.66 is likely to be seen on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand at 106.75/107.22 elbowed its way into the spotlight in recent trading, following a retest at the underside of 108.53 at the beginning of the week. Price action traders may also note the current demand is positioned just ahead of daily demand underlined above at 105.70/106.66.
As of current price, we see very little suggesting bullish intent. In fact, recent action produced a shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern, which among candlestick traders is considered a bearish signal.
H1 timeframe:
Demand for the Japanese yen diminished Wednesday – couple this with a healthy USD bid, USD/JPY probed highs at 107.86, missing the 100-period SMA by a hair before collapsing sub 107.50 and holding into the closing hours. Intraday support resides nearby in the form of the 107 handle.
Structures of Interest:
H4 buyers out of demand at 106.75/107.22 echo a nervous tone, likely due to the possibility of a move materialising to daily demand at 105.70/106.66. By and of itself, this could be enough to draw in selling off 107.50 today, with 107 set as a logical downside target, though a nudge to 106.66 also remains a possibility (the top edge of the current daily demand).
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant in April, despite recent moves to said lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2648, capped upside amid recent activity, consequently drawing cable back to demand at 1.2509/1.2372.
Dropping beneath the said demand shines the spotlight on 1.2212/1.2075; a move higher, on the other hand, may see supply at 1.3021/1.2844 make its debut.
The RSI indicator dipped lower from 60.00 yesterday, threatening moves back to 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Orders around supply at 1.2622/1.2517 remain fragile, following Tuesday’s breach. In spite of the recent pullback, breaking 1.2622/1.2517 potentially builds a foundation to explore higher levels. Limited supply, according to chart studies, is evident on this timeframe until reaching 1.2854/1.2804, which comes with a 78.6% Fib retracement level at 1.2809 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.2799.
H1 timeframe:
GBP/USD finished Wednesday above 1.25, after finding itself caught up in a reasonably dominant sell-off. The 100-period SMA, alongside the noted round number, deserve notice as feasible support on this timeframe. Failure to hold calls for 1.2450, which, as you can see, is a relatively dominant fixture owing to the number of times it has held as support since last week.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly price holding off 1.1904/1.2235, daily price testing demand at 1.2509/1.2372, H4 price recently tapping orders above supply at 1.2622/1.2517 and H1 price closing in on a retest of 1.25 may see the said round number hold ground today and attempt higher levels.
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained in this material is intended for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. FP Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as at the date of publication. FP Markets does not give any warranty or representation as to the material. Examples included in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, FP Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way (including by way of negligence) from or in connection with any information provided in or omitted from this material. Features of the FP Markets products including applicable fees and charges are outlined in the Product Disclosure Statements available from FP Markets website, www.fpmarkets.com and should be considered before deciding to deal in those products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. FP Markets recommends that you seek independent advice. First Prudential Markets Pty Ltd trading as FP Markets ABN 16 112 600 281, Australian Financial Services License Number 286354.
Access 10,000+ financial instruments