EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
March, evident from the monthly chart, left behind a long-legged doji indecision candle, with its extremes crossing paths with heavyweight demand-turned supply at 1.1857/1.1352 and demand at 1.0488/1.0912.
The technical foundation has April rangebound between the two aforementioned price structures; notably, however, the current monthly candle is attempting to regain a foothold from the upper boundary of 1.0488/1.0912.
The primary downtrend has remained in motion since 2008, exhibiting clear lower peaks and troughs.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buoyed on the back of a 78.6%/61.8% Fib zone at 1.0745/1.0830 (pink), EUR/USD experienced an additional surge in demand Tuesday, overriding Monday’s bearish engulfing pattern.
Northbound, we have the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1057 offering a layer of resistance. Supply at 1.1239/1.1179 also remains a prominent fixture on this timeframe, sited just north of a 61.8% Fib level at 1.1171 and intersecting with trendline resistance (1.0879).
In addition to this, traders may find interest in noting supply coming in from 1.1323/1.1268, having seen a potential AB=CD correction point terminate at 1.1276 (orange).
H4 timeframe:
Despite moderately navigating lower out of supply at 1.1044/1.0966 on Monday, accompanied by a nearby 50% retracement at 1.0954 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.0973, the euro benefitted on the back of a waning dollar Tuesday amid easing funding pressures.
In addition to the above, H4 price is currently compressing within two converging trendlines (an ascending wedge) which if a break lower comes to pass, could signal a downside move the size of the pattern’s base (approximately 160 points from 1.0926/1.0768).
H1 timeframe:
The technical landscape based on the H1 timeframe had the candles rebound from channel support from 1.0768 yesterday, combined with a 100-period SMA. Despite putting up a fight off 1.0950, buyers strengthened their grip and overpowered the level amid US hours to reach supply coming in from 1.1033/1.0982 which contains the widely watched 1.10 round number.
Structures of Interest:
As a reminder, we have monthly price rebounding from demand at 1.0488/1.0912, together with daily price printing a solid recovery from 1.0745/1.0830, potentially setting the stage for further upside to the 200-day SMA.
H4 price is testing supply at 1.1044/1.0966, formed alongside an approach in the shape of an ascending wedge. Interestingly, H1 price also tests supply, nearing the 1.10 handle and encased within the said H4 zone.
Overall, the technical picture suggests we may witness a pullback materialise from 1.10, though whether the move will harvest sufficient oomph to dominate 1.0950 is difficult to judge having seen the higher timeframes eyeing higher levels. A decisive H4 push beneath the H4 ascending wedge, however, would help add confidence to the downside.
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, though, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
AUD/USD registered its seventh successive daily gain Tuesday. Notably, price engaged with waters just south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied close by a trendline resistance (0.7031).
Additional buying, on the other hand, could land the candles at a supply base drawn from 0.6618/0.6544, with a 161.8% Fib ext. level just above at 0.6642.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
A harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, is firmly in play. Technicians will note additional Fibonacci studies present around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420. Where traders place the profit target using this pattern is highly subjective. One method, however, may involve taking partial profit at a 38.2% Fib retracement of legs A-D.
H1 timeframe:
Amid a declining USD, the Australian dollar gleaned a favourable wind south of 0.64 on Tuesday, taking AUD/USD flow into supply at 0.6461/0.6435. What’s also noteworthy, from a technical standpoint, is price continues to compress within a reasonably large ascending channel from 0.5991/0.6207, though also notable is a smaller ascending channel forming from 0.6331/0.6409 as well as RSI bearish divergence.
Moves higher on this chart has the 0.65 handle in view.
Structures of Interest:
Daily price testing a 61.8% Fib retracement level at 0.6449, H4 price testing a Gartley formation and H1 price testing supply at 0.6461/0.6435 may be enough to halt the advance seen on the monthly timeframe towards supply at 0.7029/0.6664.
Traders looking to short the H4 Gartley formation, traditionally, locate protective stop-loss levels above the X point of the pattern.
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and a demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
With price action extending its bearish position south of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday, currently mixing in around the 108.31ish region, demand coming in from 105.70/106.66 remains a focal point on this timeframe.
H4 timeframe:
Demand at 106.75/107.22 elbowed its way into the spotlight in recent trading, following a retest at the underside of 108.53 at the beginning of the week. Price action traders may also note the current demand is positioned just ahead of daily demand underlined above at 105.70/106.66.
H1 timeframe:
Early London Tuesday witnessed USD/JPY subdue the 107.50 point and greet the 107 handle amid US trade, which, as you can see, prompted a mild bout of short covering into the close.
Technically, we are compressing within a descending channel pattern from 108.52/107.51 right now, with the RSI indicator attempting to regain a foothold out of oversold territory. A break beneath 107 today could see a run to 106 due to the lack of demand seen to the left of price – check out the (potential) demand consumption tails (March 17) around 106.29/22/16.
Structures of Interest:
Healthy buying out of H4 demand at 106.75/107.22 might be enough to generate a move through channel resistance on the H1 timeframe. This, to some technicians, may be considered a buy signal to at least 107.50 and potentially beyond.
Traders, however, are urged to chalk up the possibility of a breach beneath the current H4 demand into daily demand coming in from 105.70/106.66, before buyers step in. This area could also, despite H1 price action showing room to move towards 106, halt downside.
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Although March clocked levels not seen since the 1980s, ahead of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.1297, price staged an impressive recovery and regained approximately 80% of the month’s losses.
Support at 1.1904/1.2235 remains relevant in April, despite recent moves to said lows. Nearby resistance can be seen in the form of a trendline formation (1.7191).
Concerning the primary trend, lower peaks and troughs have decorated the monthly chart since early 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Supply at 1.2509/1.2372 had its upper edge tested Monday, and finally gave way on Tuesday, resulting in an advance towards demand-turned supply at 1.2649/1.2799, an area that aligns with a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2648.
The RSI indicator is seen making its way north of 50.00, eyeing a possible test of highs around 60.00, followed by 70.00, the traditional overbought value.
H4 timeframe:
Sterling upside has observed price action tap orders above supply at 1.2622/1.2517, potentially building a foundation to explore higher levels today. Limited supply, according to chart studies, is evident on this timeframe until reaching 1.2854/1.2804, which comes with a 78.6% Fib retracement level at 1.2809 and a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 1.2799.
H1 timeframe:
In Tuesday’s analysis, research highlighted a possible ascending triangle pattern forming on the H1 timeframe. As a reminder, the ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern.
As can be seen from the chart this morning, price breached the pattern’s resistance level and retested the edge as support shortly after in the form of back-to-back hammer candlestick patterns (bullish signals). Price followed through with an upside move to 1.26, with the US session pushing for highs at 1.2647.
1.27 is seen as the next resistance on this timeframe, followed by a supply area found at 1.2763/1.2733.
Structures of Interest:
In essence, we have monthly price looking at higher levels, daily price testing the 200-day SMA and a demand-turned supply base at 1.2649/1.2799, H4 price nudging above supply at 1.2622/1.2517 and H1 price action poised to potentially retest 1.26 and rally to 1.27.
Of course, a rally on the H1 timeframe, while supported on the H4 and monthly timeframes, faces resistance from the daily timeframe. Therefore, longs north of 1.26 may want to pencil in the possibility of a pullback materialising before continuing higher.
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